249
FXUS61 KALY 200629
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
229 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures earlier tonight dropped several degrees below the
previous forecast for northern areas where skies remained clear, but
advancing mid-level clouds are now blanketing the area and temps
should hold steady or rise through the next several hours. Minor
reduction to expected QPF today, but still expecting widespread rain
for most of the day. Latest guidance has delayed any potential
impacts from a coastal low from late this week into next
weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread light to moderate rain expected area-wide today,
with no flood concerns expected.

2) A coastal storm will track near the East Coast late next week,
but confidence remains low on whether we will see impacts from this
system at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...As of 2:30 AM EDT...Clear skies and calm winds
across the N/NE third of our region allowed for temperatures to
drop into the low 40s with patchy fog earlier tonight, but
advancing mid-level cloud shield seen on GOES 16 nighttime
microphysics RGB satellite product is keeping temperatures much
warmer (mid 50s) for the rest of the region. Temps should pretty
much hold steady through the rest of the night.

While current radar shows some very light scattered showers across
the region, most of this is not reaching the ground due to low/mid-
level dry air. However, shower coverage will increase towards
sunrise as a inverted sfc trough currently located over Ohio forms a
closed sfc low and tracks across PA later today. Strengthening LLJ
with this system will help lift a mid-level warm front across the
southern portion of our region, although the sfc front remains to
our south. Surging low to mid-level moisture, already seen to our
west on CIRA ALPW satellite imagery, will be lifted up and over the
front, resulting in widespread stratiform rain across the region for
most of the day. The right entrance of the upper jet to our north
will also help to enhance lift and allow the precip shield to spread
northwards. Highs today will struggle to make it out of the 50s for
most areas.

Total rainfall amounts have come down slightly since the previous
forecast, but a general half inch to inch is expected for most of
the area, with the higher amounts across the Catskills, Mid
Hudson Valley, and western CT which will be closer to the better
mid-level warm advection and isentropic lift. Given lack of
instability, rainfall rates will only be on the order of 0.1 to
briefly 0.25" per hour, so we are not concerned about any
flooding issues. In fact, this rainfall will be largely
beneficial as much of the region is actually running slightly
below normal for precip over the past 30 days or so.

Rain tapers to showers this evening/early tonight as the sfc low
tracks off to the E/SE of our region and a strong 1030+ mb sfc high
builds into southern Canada. This will help push a cold frontal
boundary to the south of our region, where it will stall for the
first half of the week. With the sfc high continuing to
strengthen beneath confluent flow aloft, mainly dry weather is
expected for the first half of the week, although a few showers
could reach as far north as southern Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield
Counties Tuesday as an upper disturbance tracks south of our
region. With persistent E/NE flow, temperatures will run below
normal through the first half of the week, giving us a prolonged
taste of fall weather. Highs each day will only be in the 50s
to 60s and lows each night in the 30s to 40s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...By the middle to end of the week, anticyclonic
wave breaking leads to the development of a Rex Block pattern,
with a closed upper low sliding to the south of our region. As
it emerges over the Atlantic, coastal cyclogenesis will occur
with the resulting sfc low tracking somewhere off the east
coast. Latest guidance now keeps our area dry through the end of
the week, with any potential rain from this coastal low delayed
until next weekend. Guidance tends to struggle with these
blocky flow patterns, and so confidence for this time period
remains quite low. Additional changes to the forecast late-week
should be expected. Nevertheless, given that this potential
coastal low looks to be quite moisture- laden, we will continue
to monitor closely. If we do see any rain from this system, the
most likely areas would be the Mid Hudson Valley and/or
southwestern New England.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...GFL has had some IFR vsbys due to fog/mist
tonight, but all other terminals remain VFR. Advancing high clouds
should arrive at GFL within the next hour, and once this happens
expecting any fog/mist to dissipate with a return to VFR conditions
for the next few hours. As we head towards sunrise, mid and high
clouds lower and thicken with scattered light showers developing
across the region. As showers become more widespread around/shortly
after sunrise, vsbys and cigs should trend down to MVFR. Steady rain
then expected through today into early tonight. Mainly MVFR vsbys
with MVFR cigs this morning and early afternoon trending down to IFR
mid to late afternoon into this evening. Showers end from northwest
to southeast from 00-03z tonight, but lingering mist and low stratus
with IFR to MVFR cigs and vsbys expected through 06z.

Light and variable winds expected at GFL through the TAF period, but
at the other terminals SE winds of 5-10 kt expected to develop by
sunrise, continuing into the evening before switching to the N/NE at
around 5 kt. Some gusts to around 15 kt possible at ALB/PSF this
morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35