544
FXUS61 KALY 030546
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
146 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A mostly dry and seasonable weekend is expected.

2) A strong cold front brings breezy and even cooler weather
for early next week, along with the potential for valley frost
at night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will build eastward across the area today bringing
sunny and seasonable weather to the area. Lows tonight will fall
back into the 30s and 40s. No frost headlines are expected in
the continued growing season areas with lows mainly in the upper
30s or 40s. This high will begin to depart to the east on
Sunday as an upper level shortwave approaches from the west and
weak area of low pressure tracks off the East Coast. These
features will allow for an increase in clouds in the afternoon
and a low chance for a few showers in spots, especially for
areas south and east of Albany.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A potent upper level and surface low will be slowly tracking
across Quebec early next week. This feature will send a strong
cold front across the area on Monday. This front will pick up
enough moisture from the Great Lakes for a few showers mainly
for areas north and west of Albany later Sunday night into
Monday. Strong cold air advection then takes place behind the
front as 850 hPa temperatures fall to near or below 0C. Tuesday
will be the coolest day of the week with highs mainly in the 50s
except upper 40s across the Adirondacks and southern Greens and
lower 60s in the mid-Hudson Valley. It will be breezy on Monday
with winds gusting 20 to 30 mph if not locally higher across
the Mohawk Valley, Capital District and Berkshires. While lows
Monday night fall back into the 30s to lower 40s, there should
be enough wind to prevent frost. The better frost night would be
Tuesday night with light to calm winds with the high directly
overhead. Frost Advisories may be needed for some areas where
the growing season is still active. Temperatures rebound back
toward normal values for the second half of the week with the
next chance for some rain showers being during this time as
well as another upper level trough approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z/Sun...High pressure will build eastward across the
area during the upcoming TAF period with VFR conditions for all
sites. A few mid and high clouds will pass through overnight
and then give way to nearly SKC conditions for much of Saturday
through Saturday evening. There should be enough wind in place
to prevent fog for the rest of the overnight period. Winds will
be mainly northwesterly to northeasterly at 4-8 kt through the
period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night through Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33