323
FXUS61 KALY 101812
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
112 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong clipper system will move through eastern New York and
western New England, today, with accumulating snows mainly across
the higher elevations. Lake effect snow showers and upslope snow
with gusty winds are expected behind the system for Thursday. Cold,
well below normal temperatures continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory continue for
accumulating snow associated with passing clipper. Please see latest
statements for additional details.

- Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow for southern Herkimer
  through Friday morning.

- Breezy Thursday and Friday with wind gusts around 30-50 MPH,
  especially across the Berkshires.

Discussion:

As of 12:30 PM...Surface observations from 1600z showed our clipper
system centered across eastern Michigan and Lake Erie, with a warm
front extending eastward across Lake Ontario into northern New York.
Light to moderate snow was ongoing across portions of eastern New
York and western New England ahead of it, thanks to strong low-level
forcing with a LLJ and 925-850 hPa frontogenesis. Temperatures as of
this hour ranged from the upper 20s to mid 30s, with the higher end
of values across the Hudson River Valley.

Through the remainder of this afternoon and evening, expected
precipitation to continue across much of the area as the clipper and
its trailing arctic front move across the region. Snow will remain
the dominant precip type over the next few hours, but may begin to
mix with or change over to plain rain in the river valleys as
surface temperatures continue to warm into the 30s with
strengthening southerly flow ahead of the front. While occasional
bursts of snow are expected across the Capital District, strong
downsloping winds and mild temperatures will help to really
keep snow totals down here. Speaking of which, snow totals
remain relatively unchanged with this forecast, with the highest
amounts expected mainly across the higher elevations of the
ADKs, Catskills and southern Greens, where amounts may approach
a foot in some locations. Please see the latest warning and
advisory statements.

To reiterate from the previous AFD, the terrain and temperatures are
going to be the biggest influence with this clipper system for
snowfall totals today. Be prepared for winter weather impacts this
afternoon and evening in high terrain locations.

Cold front trailing with this clipper system is progged to move
through the region tonight. Behind this system, lake effect snow
showers and upslope snow return for Thursday through Friday as well
as gusty winds. In collaboration with surrounding offices, went
ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow
for southern Herkimer County through Friday morning, where
additional snowfall accumulations of around 3-6 inches can be
expected. In addition, a Wind Advisory has been issued for
Berkshire County in western Massachusetts, where wind gusts
above 45 MPH are expected at times Thursday morning through
Friday morning. NBM probabilities remain high for gusts around
45 MPH (60-100%), especially Thursday night, with low-level
mixing helping to bring down winds aloft around 40-50 kts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- An active weather regime will remain in place through the long
  term with several chances of precipitation and continued below
  normal temperatures.

Discussion:

Lake effect snow showers Friday, with low chances remaining for
light snow showers Friday across Herkimer county. Most locations
stay dry and cold with highs in the 20s and low 30s. Winds decrease
Friday morning with gusts between 5 and 15 mph.

Our weather pattern into the weekend looks to remain active as
ensemble forecast model guidances are supporting an upper level
trough to dig southward and move through eastern New York and
western New England, bringing additional chances of snow showers. In
addition, this trough will bring another shot of colder air behind
it with an arctic front moving through Sunday. This will lead to the
potential for bitterly cold temperatures Monday morning with lows
ranging five below to the single digits.

Dry conditions are favored to briefly return Monday as the upper
level trough heads east and upper level ridging moves in. Highs
Monday will range from the teens to the 20s. These below normal
temperatures look to stick around into early next week with cold
lows in the single digits and highs in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z Thursday...Flying conditions as of 12:20 PM EST range
from VFR at ALB/POU to IFR or lower at GFL/PSF. While ALB/POU/PSF
have seen mainly VFR conditions so far this morning, snow is
expected to fill in across the region by 19-21z, with IFR or lower
vsbys at all terminals. POU may see a mix with or transition to rain
this evening, which would allow for a return to low-end MVFR vsbys
and cigs. Elsewhere, IFR vsbys and cigs expected through around 02-
04z with snow/snow showers. Snow showers taper off after this point,
but lingering IFR cigs expected until the cold front arrives later
tonight (7-9z) and helps to scour out the low-level moisture. Behind
the front, cigs improve to MVFR and eventually VFR by around sunrise
tomorrow morning, except at PSF where MVFR cigs may linger longer
with upslope flow. Once clouds scatter out, mainly VFR conditions
expected tomorrow, although there could be a few lake effect snow
showers near ALB tomorrow from mid-morning through the end of the
TAF period. Still low confidence on whether these lake effect snow
showers may track near the airport, or if they will remain to the
south.

Winds will be at around 10 kt from the S/SE with gusts to 15-25kt
through this evening, then gusts subside after precip ends tonight
at GFL/POU. Winds veer to the S/SW, still at around 10 kt, then
switch to the west behind the cold frontal passage later tonight.
Behind the front, winds increase to around 15kt, with gusts of 20-
30kt late tonight increasing to 25-35kt tomorrow morning through the
end of the TAF period. Will also mention that the low-level jet
overhead will result in a period of LLWS through early this evening,
but the low-level jet should weaken after around sunset.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032-033-
     082.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ038.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ039-
     041>043-063-083.
MA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for
     MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...35