401
FXUS61 KALY 141019
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
619 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continued to mention some patchy fog for early this morning with
more widespread patches of fog possible for tonight into
Saturday morning.

Temperatures still appear to average below normal this weekend
with good radiational cooling expected on both Friday night and
Saturday nights. With daytime mixing on Saturday, dewpoints will
be falling into the 50s, which will be noticeably more
comfortable than recent days. Have leaned towards the lower end
of the blended guidance (closer to the MOS values) for dewpoints
on Saturday afternoon.

NBM continues to show widespread precip on Sunday with a 25% to
50% chance for 1 inch of rain or greater for Sunday into Sunday
night. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for
Excessive Rainfall for Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
impact the region today, but are not expected to be severe.

2) Cooler temps will be in place this weekend along with a
widespread rainfall from showers and some thunderstorms Sunday
into early Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A shortwave will be diving from the Quebec and Ontario southeast
into the Northeast for today. This shortwave will help to
continue to carve out a trough over the Northeast, allowing for
cooler temps aloft to pour into the region.

Although moisture is limited, this digging upper level shortwave
will allow for some isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop during peak heating today. Instability
looks very limited as well, with both the 00z HRRR and 00z SPC
HREF suggesting around 500 J/kg of SBCAPE across the area.
Still, this will be enough for a rumble or two, but strong
storms aren`t anticipated today due to the limited instability
and poor lapse rates aloft, which will limit how tall storms can
grow. Coverage looks sparse, so will keep POPs around 15%-30%
across the area, with the highest POPs in northern and eastern
areas. Any showers or storms will diminish towards evening with
the loss of daytime heating.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

With the cooler temps in place aloft, there will be a noticeable
change in high and low temps across the region for this weekend.
Daytime temps will generally be in the 70s with 50s at night
(some 40s across the high terrain). This will be some the
coolest temperatures we have seen so far this month across the
region as highs have been in the 80s each day so far this month.
Dewpoints will be much lower on Saturday, with values down into
the 50s, especially during afternoon mixing, so it will
certainly feel more comfortable than recent days well.

Although it will be dry and cool for Saturday, moisture looks to
return for Sunday as the next system approaches from the west.
Based on the latest model guidance, an upper level disturbance
and associated surface frontal system will move eastward across
the region from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley within the
zonal flow aloft. NBM POPs are in the likely to categorical
range for Sunday into Sunday night with periods of showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Some rain may linger into early Monday,
but clearing is expected during the day on Monday.

Latest NBM shows about a 25% to 50% chance for exceeding 1 inch
across the region for most of the area, but probabilities are
generally under 20% to see over 2 inches. With some embedded
heavier bursts possible and soils still on the saturated side,
there remains a risk for some flash flooding, especially within
urban and poor drainage areas. WPC continues a Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z/Sat...VFR conditions will continue through this
morning. Another shortwave will likely allow for some showers
and possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly at
KALB/KGFL/KPSF and a PROB30 was maintained for possible
reductions to vsbys in any shower. These showers should remain
north of KPOU. Showers depart by around 00-01z/Sat with VFR
conditions returning, though will once again have to monitor for
possible fog formation, especially for any site that sees a
shower during the day today. This would favor KGFL/KPSF and
possibly KALB.

Wind will become north to northwesterly 5-10 kt today (except
northeasterly at KGFL). Winds trend light to calm again tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...33