754
FXUS61 KALY 020531
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1231 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures trend above normal this week with mostly dry
weather through Wednesday before chances for rain increase
Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front arrives. Depending
on if and when the front slows down, there is a low to medium
chance in rain showers continuing into Friday and the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A 1030hPa high settles just off the coast today, giving us
another day of dry and pleasant fall weather with south-
southwest flow supporting weak warm air advection. Even with
some increasing mid and high level clouds as moisture spills
over the approaching ridge, temperatures will still likely warm
10-15 degrees above normal into the low to mid 60s. Ridging
centered in the Ohio Valley amplifies and continues building
eastward tomorrow, sending a weak warm front into the Northeast.
Overall moisture and forcing continue to appear rather weak with
latest NBM probabilistic guidance limiting chances for at least
0.01" of rain to the southern/western Adirondacks and Upper
Hudson Valley with chances ranging from 20-40% tomorrow
afternoon. The front lifts north of eastern NY by tomorrow
evening, with the ridge axis and warm sector shifting overhead
into Wednesday. There is increasing confidence that Wednesday
will be a beautiful day as large scale riding supports mainly
sunny skies and the incoming 850hPa isotherms ranging 2 to 2.5
standard deviations above normal per the NAEFS and ENS likely
supports well above normal temperatures. In fact, the latest
NBM probabilistic guidance shows a 40 to 80% chance for highs to
meet or exceed 70 degrees for much of eastern NY and western
New England outside the higher terrain areas.


Temperatures remain mild into Wednesday night with well above
normal temperatures likely continuing into Thursday as a cold
front slides eastward. The boundary is associated with a broad
and weakening positively tilted trough over the Upper
Midwest/Great Lake with the parent low occluding as the front
moves into the Northeast. Despite the weakening forcing and
upper level dynamics, the moisture transport ahead of the front
and thermal gradient along the boundary should be sufficient to
support our first measurable rainfall event in three weeks! The
front looks to reach eastern NY by Thursday afternoon and heads
into western New England by Thursday evening as the weakened
parent shortwave interacts and potentially phases with a
northern stream shortwave in southern Canada. Latest ensembles
and clusters still show a split solution regarding when the
phasing occurs which will determine if the front slows down
while it is still overhead or if it will have a chance to escape
into New England before slowing down. There is a large enough
spread in the guidance to support widespread likely POPS Thurs
night with likely POPs focused along and east of the Hudson on
Friday before trending lowering by Saturday. Latest guidance
shows there is a 30 to 70% chance for at least a half inch of
much needed rain between 7am Thursday and 7am Friday for much of
the area. Once the two shortwaves phase, there is good
consensus in a secondary low developing along the boundary
resulting in more widespread rain; however, the latest trends
suggest this may occur when the boundary is far enough to our
east to keep most of the impacts in New England. Even still,
unsettled conditions look to continue over the weekend as the
upper level parent low moves overhead supporting additional
scattered showers and cool air advection that trend temperatures
back towards normal.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region.  IR satellite
imagery shows nearly completely clear skies, with just thin cirrus
clouds, mainly across southern areas.  Although some sites have a
small spread between the temperature and dewpoint, radiational fog
is not anticipated overnight due to recent dry conditions and cool
temperatures in place.  Some brief mist cannot be totally ruled out
right around daybreak at KGFL, but this appears to be a low
probability at this time, so will keep out of the TAF for now.  As a
result, will keep flying conditions VFR through daybreak with calm
winds and mostly clear skies.

During the day on Monday, flying conditions will continue to be VFR
for all sites.  A light southerly winds around 5 kts will develop
for all TAF sites, but no precip is expected through the day.  Few-
sct mid and high level clouds will be around through the day as
well.  In Monday night, cigs will become bkn around 10-12 kft for
KGFL, KPSF and KALB, but no precip is expected.  Light to calm winds
are expected for Monday night as well with continued VFR
conditions.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely RA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...24