659
FXUS61 KALY 170544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
Issued by National Weather Service Burlington VT
144 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A very slow moving warm front just to the south of the area
will lead to mostly cloudy skies and chances for precipitation
today and Wednesday. After the warm front moves through the
area Wednesday night, warm and humid air will surge into the
region on Thursday ahead of a cold front. This cold front on
Thursday may result in strong to even severe thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
We remain mostly cloudy this morning as a surface warm front
just south of the area remains blocked by high pressure over New
England. Southwest flow aloft will advect warm and humid air
over the warm front maintaining cloudy skies and a few
scattered showers. Little instability will be present to
support thunderstorms. Daytime highs will likely only be in the
60s in the hill towns and higher terrain with low to mid 70s in
valley areas but humidity levels will be on the rise making it
feel muggy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Increasing confidence for strong to severe thunderstorms on
  Thursday as a potent cold front tracks eastward across the
  Northeast with damaging winds the primary hazard.

- The combination of high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
  and uncomfortable humidity levels on Thursday may necessitate
  heat advisories, especially in the mid-Hudson Valley as heat
  indices climb into the mid to upper 90s.

Discussion:

Tonight, strengthening warm air and moisture advection combined
with an additional weak shortwave tracking northeastward
through the southwest flow aloft will likely support clouds and
additional areas of showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms
given some weak elevated instability. Any storm can produce
brief heavy downpours given high PWATs nearing 2 inches and high
freezing heights above 12kft supporting efficient warm rain
processes.

On Wednesday, the warm front may remain hung up over the area
with the best chance for clearing west of the Hudson River
Valley. Once any cloud breaks develop and allow sun to generate
some instability, forecast soundings show a classic "tall skinny
CAPE" signature given a very warm/moist atmosphere through the
column. Mid-level lapse rates look rather weak under 5.5C/km
which should limit severe weather potential but localized heavy
downpours are certainly possible from such a humid air mass and
unidirectional flow through the column. In fact, PWATS range 2 -
2.5 standard deviations above normal per the NAEFS and rank in
the 95th+ percentile of the model climatology for mid-June.
Showers/storms diminish Wed night as upper level ridging
strengthens aloft but it will remain muggy and uncomfortable
overnight.

Attention then turns to Thursday when there are concerns for
both heat and severe weather impacts. An intensifying shortwave
trough and deepening sfc low tracking northeastward through
Ontario. Strengthening southwesterly winds ahead of the low will
advect a very warm air mass into the Northeast with 850 hPa
isotherms +17C to +20C will likely result in high temperatures
rising to near 90 in valley areas. Probabilistic guidance has
trended upward showing a 10 to 40% chance for temperatures to
exceed 90 in valley areas Thurs afternoon. The combination of
high humidity and very warm temperatures will result in heat
index values around 95 degrees in valley areas which reaches
our heat advisory criteria. Will continue to monitor but heat
sensitive populations should be mindful of potential heat
related impacts (heat stroke/heat exhaustion) on Thursday and
limit unnecessary outdoor activities. WPC`s HeatRisk continues
to show much of our valley areas in its "moderate" or level 2
categories as well.

Thursday, we continue to the monitor severe weather potential
as well. Guidance has some timing differences. If front arrives
during peak heating when instability values are highest this
would support organized convection and increased potential for
severe weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Increasing confidence for a period of above normal
  temperatures early next week. Probabilistic guidance shows 50
  to 90% chance for temperatures to exceed 90 degrees in valley
  areas on Monday. Heat indices may exceed 100 degrees.

Discussion:

Upper level troughing continues into Friday, resulting in
additional chances for showers, especially north of I-90.
Temperatures trend relatively cooler and less humid in the wake
of the front but it will still be seasonable for mid-June.
Upper level subsidence strengthens in the wake of the trough for
Saturday as high pressure builds into the Northeast, giving us a
very pleasant Saturday with seasonable temperatures. By Saturday
night into Sunday we will have to monitor a potential "ridge
roller" as large scale ridging and heat from the Midwest/Ohio
Valley builds eastward with guidance hinting at potential
shortwaves riding along the northern periphery that could
support additional areas of showers/thunderstorms. The hot air
mass looks to shift into the Northeast by the early part of
next week resulting in possible extreme heat conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Currently VFR conditions
are observed at all sites except KPOU where there is an IFR
ceiling. Winds are light and variable or from a southerly
direction. Radar shows light showers, but they are expanding in
coverage across the area. Overnight cigs lower to MVFR at KGFL,
KALB and KPSF and visibilites may drop to MVFR during periods of
rain and fog. KPOU expected to stay IFR. Some improvement
possible all areas on Tuesday during the afternoon during
daytime heating although a passing shower may affect any of the
TAF sites. A period of steadier rain Tuesday evening may again
lower cigs/visby to IFR. Winds remain light an variable.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND