574
FXUS61 KALY 010549
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
149 AM EDT Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly dry weather is expected through Wednesday, with
increasing chances for rain later in the week. Above normal
temperatures are expected through the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure, centered over the region this morning, will
slowly shift eastward and meander off the East Coast through
early this week. In addition, upper level ridging will slowly
build northward through midweek. This will allow for generally
dry conditions to continue across the area. A warm front will
lift northward across the area on Tuesday which may bring a few
showers to areas north and west of the Capital District;
otherwise, no precipitation is expected through Wednesday.
Rising 850 hPa temperatures (to +1-2 STDEV) will bring a period
of above normal temperatures beginning today and continue
through most of the upcoming week. There continues to be
increasing chances for some rain by the end of the week. While
the overall synoptic pattern remains a bit uncertain, an
approaching upper-level trough or closed low from the west
should drag a cold front across the region sometime Thursday
into Friday which will be accompanied by a period of rain. In
addition, some additional moisture from a low pressure system
off the East Coast may also get advected into the region during
this time. Nonetheless, this appears to be the next best chance
for a more widespread rainfall and finally bring an end to the
prolonged dry stretch for many areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Mon...VFR conditions are expected through the
upcoming TAF period. Some patchy stratocumulus clouds between
3500-4500 feet near KALB/KPSF will gradually dissipate toward
daybreak. Otherwise, mainly cirrus clouds will be overhead
overnight through this afternoon with increasing mid- level
clouds this evening. Calm winds through the overnight will
become variable at 5 kt or less during the day.

Outlook...

Monday to Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33