815
FXUS61 KALY 151904
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
304 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The system set to bring widespread showers to eastern New York
and western New England tomorrow has continued to show trends of
a more southerly track. Therefore, the QPF has therefore
decreased across portions of the region. New QPF values range
from about 0.25" to locally higher amounts up to 1".

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Widespread rain showers tomorrow afternoon through Monday
morning will bring beneficial rain to the region. However,
locally heavy downpours could increase the potential for
isolated flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a beautiful day today, widespread chances for rain
increase once again for tomorrow as our current high begins to
shift to the east and a low pressure system approaches from the
west. By tomorrow afternoon, HiRes guidance indicates two
initial areas of showers spreading into eastern New York: one to
the northwest of Albany ahead of a surface wave, and another to
the southwest associated with the incoming system`s warm front.
Once the warm sector begins to enter our CWA, increasing warm
air and moisture advection will help to fill in the gap between
these two areas of showers, leading to more widespread coverage
by tomorrow evening. Rain showers will then persist through
tomorrow night into at least Monday morning, but potentially as
late as Monday afternoon, as the parent low and associated
shortwave aloft swing by to our south. The period of greatest
rainfall will occur tomorrow night into early Monday morning.

Generally, most of the rainfall rates contained within the
showers tomorrow through Monday morning will be light. In fact, the
latest HREF only shows isolated to highly scattered areas of
10-20% probabilities for at least 0.25" of rain per hour. That
said, there will be decent forcing for ascent as a result of
the causing system in addition to high precipitable water
content (PWATs ~1.6" to 2" which are 2-2.5 STDEVs above normal).
Therefore, embedded moderate to locally heavy downpours cannot
be ruled out. And as we have been largely dry so far this month,
the 0.25" to local 1" rainfall amounts that are anticipated
should be beneficial and not cause any widespread flooding
issues. This will be especially true if the system takes as
southerly a track and remains as progressive as the current
guidance would suggest. However, should the system slow and/or
shift a bit farther north, such that the heaviest rain sets up
over areas south of Albany, there could be an isolated instance
of flash flooding. This could also lead to locally higher
rainfall amounts, particularly in the Catskills, of up to 2".

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday... VFR conditions will prevail across all
terminals for the majority of this TAF period, with light
northwesterly to northerly winds and a few fair weather cumulus
to start off this afternoon. Winds will weaken after 00Z tonight
and skies are expected to partially or completely clear, which
will persist throughout much of the overnight period. Given
this, there is potential for the development of radiational
mist/fog at all terminals, which could bring periods of MVFR/IFR
cigs and vis mainly after 05Z. Any mist/fog will burn off by
mid-to-late Sunday morning, giving way to VFR conditions through
the end of the TAF period. The exception is KPOU, which is
expected to develop MVFR cigs over the last several hours of the
period. KGFL, KALB, and KPSF will also see lowering cigs
throughout this period ahead of the rain tomorrow
afternoon/evening, but will remain VFR.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...FG.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...23