611
FXUS61 KALY 121623
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1223 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry weather is expected through Friday with seasonably
warm temperatures making for pleasant, mid- June conditions.
Chances for rain increase Friday night and continue through the
weekend but precipitation looks to be showery as opposed
to continuous. These unsettled conditions will bring cooler
than normal temperatures through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
A moisture-starved cold front continues to sink farther south
and east into the region as a weak shortwave and jet maximum
aloft moves southeast across the Northeast. No rain, just some
clouds associated with the front. In the wake of the front,
conditions today will remain breezy given the increased pressure
gradient, driven by high pressure nosing in from the
west/northwest, and deep mixing. This boundary will bring cooler
and dryer weather, but ahead of it, temperatures will once
again reach above normal levels for many. Expect values in the
upper 60s/low 70s at elevations of 1500 ft and above to mid 70s
to mid 80s elsewhere. Isolated pockets of upper 80s will even be
possible in the lower Mid- Hudson Valley and southern
Litchfield County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tranquil weather persists through Friday. Cooler nighttime
temperatures with the dryer air behind the front. Low
temperatures tonight will fall to the 40s and 50s before highs
Friday rise to upper 60s to upper 70s. Additionally, with the
surface high spreading into the area, Friday will be less
breezy than today. Attention then turns to Friday night through
Saturday where chances for rain increase once again.

Another shortwave develops aloft and begins to dig south and
east from southeast Ontario/southwest Quebec while a front is
stalled just to the south of our area. Enhanced low level convergence
associated with the nearby boundary will interact with the
lift from the incoming shortwave to promote scattered showers
Friday night into Saturday. During this period, Some elevated
instability is present across the southern part of our forecast
area and some isolated thunder showers are possible south.

The shortwave is progged to move southeast of the forecast area
Saturday night, and while clouds and some fog/drizzle may
linger, moisture and lift decrease and precipitation should be
very light.

Low temperatures Friday night will be in the upper 40s to upper
50s. Highs Saturday will fall below normal once again with
values primarily in the 60s. Lows Saturday night will be similar
to those of Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A slow moving frontal boundary will be draped just south of the
region across the northern mid Atlantic States on Sunday.  This
front will be drifting southward to end the weekend into early next
week, while a weak upper level disturbance moves across the Ohio
Valley and towards the Appalachians and mid Atlantic.  While the
best chance for widespread precip will mainly be south of the
region, a few showers may still occur across our area for Sunday
into Monday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. However,
coverage won`t be too high and surface high pressure off the coast
of New England may help advect some low level drier and more stable
air into the region from the east-northeast as well.  Will continue
slight chance to chance POPs Still, skies will feature more
clouds than sun and temps will be a little below normal, with
daytime highs in the 60s to mid 70s.

Little change in the pattern is expected through Wednesday so
scattered showers are possible through Wednesday, especially
during daytime heating. Heights and temps aloft will be slowing
rising through the week, which should allow for temps to warm
each day. Highs may return into the 80s for valley areas by the
middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IR satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies over the area, with
just some passing mid and high level clouds. Flying conditions are
currently VFR.  A frontal boundary will be crossing the area this
morning, but no precip is expected to accompany this front as it
moves across the area.  The biggest change will be a shift in the
wind direction, going from south-southwest to west-southwest by the
late morning hours.  Winds will increase to 10 to 15 kts for the
afternoon hours, with a few higher gusts to 20-25 kts this afternoon
as well.  Otherwise, it will remain VFR through the entire day with
just few-sct mid and high level clouds.

The winds will decrease for tonight, with most sites seeing winds 5
kts or less during the overnight hours.  Some additional passing mid
level clouds are expected, but it looks to stay VFR for all sites
tonight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ063>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND/Gant
SHORT TERM...SND/Gant
LONG TERM...SND/Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis