040
FXUS61 KALY 300023
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
823 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update: As of 8:20 PM EDT...Flood watch was allowed to expire as
scheduled at 8 PM, as rainfall rates have decreased and
additional rainfall amounts are not expected to be high enough
to lead to significant or widespread additional flooding.
However, areal flood warnings have been continued for much of
the Capital District and portions of the Taconics where the
heaviest rain fell today and many roads remain closed due to
flooding.

Previous: Flood Watch continues for western New England, and
eastern NY excluding the southern Adirondacks, west-central
Mohawk Valley and Schoharie County until 8 pm for possible flash
flooding some small streams creeks and areal river flooding.

Some changes to hourly PoPs/weather with only a slight chance of
thunderstorms the rest of the afternoon into early tonight.
Additional rainfall in the watch area a half an inch to two
inches with some locally higher amounts along and east of
Catskills, the southern Greens and the northern Berkshires.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Bands of showers/isolated thunderstorms will produce moderate
to heavy rain into early this evening, especially in the Flood
Watch area north and west of the mid Hudson Valley. Poor
drainage/urban areas will be most susceptible to potential
sustained flooding/flash flooding into tonight.

2) Some isolated to scattered main stem river flooding will
continue this afternoon into tonight on the Schoharie and Esopus
Creeks, as well as the Hoosic Rivers.

3) Drier weather returns Friday into Saturday with seasonal
temps by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

An impressive late July rain storm continues across NY and New
England. A closed/cutoff low continues to impact eastern NY and
western New England with bands of stratiform rainfall with
isolated embedded t-storms possible. Double-barrel low pressure
system with one low over southern/eastern NY and a coastal low
near Long Island. Deep fetch of moisture continues from the
Atlantic and Gulf with PWAT anomalies 2 to 3 STDEVs above normal
in the 1.5-1.7" range in the SPS RAP meso-analysis. Multiple
embedded vortices are impacting the forecast area with one
recently moved through the western Mohawk Valley, and another
moving over the Capital Region with a third moving into NW CT
and western MA. Periods of rain will continue with rainfall
rates mainly 0.1-0.5"/hr though closer to the heavier bands,
some 0.5-1.0"/hr may briefly occur. Warm rainfall efficient
processes continue in the deformation zone with high freezing
levels 12-13 kft AGL. Training rainfall echoes will also yield
additional flash flooding/flooding in spots.

An additional 0.5"-2.0" of rainfall is
possible in the Flood Watch area...and some localized amounts to 3"
or so are possible along the east facing slopes of the eastern
Catskills, southern Greens and Berkshires. Rainfall totals in
the Capital Region/Saratoga Region, upper Mid Hudson Valley,
northern Taconics, Helderbergs, and the eastern Catskills have
received 4-11" of rainfall with 11.03" of rainfall in the NYS
mesonet at Schodack and 10.69" at Kinderhook as of 2 pm. This
rainfall has fallen in the last 24-30 hours. The Albany Airport
has a rainfall total of 5.95" over the past 30 hours since 8 am
yesterday until 2 pm, which is a very high amount for any
rainfall event. The Flood Watch will remain up until 8 pm/00Z.
We want to keep it up for the afternoon/evening commute. Ponding
of water on roadways, poor drainage flooding of low-lying and
urban areas, and some road washouts may continue. Highs today
were mainly in the 60s, except for some lower to mid 70s over
the mid Hudson Valley and southern Taconics, where the rain let
up with a few break in the clouds.

Some drier air may feed into the storm system, as the showers
will lighten in intensity tonight and become more scattered
across portions of the region. Patchy fog may occur in some
locations. Lows will be mainly in the 50s to around 60F in a
few spots.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Some minor to low end moderate river flooding continues to
occur on the Esopus Creek at Mt Tremper/Cold Brook and Mt
Marion. This is due to the rainfall of 4-9+" and run-off in the
basins. Mt Tremper looks to have crested and these points could
fall below flood stage by the late afternoon/early evening.
Some additional minor/moderate flooding continues on the
Schoharie Creek at Prattsville, Gilboa Bridge, and Breakabeen.
We are monitoring the potential for minor flooding at
Burtonsville. We continue a Flood Warning for minor flooding at
Williamstown on the Hoosic River and potentially Eagle Bridge in
Rensselaer Co. Minor flooding of small streams and creeks
continuing across portions of the Capital Region/Upper Mid
Hudson Valley/eastern Catskills/Helderbergs and the eastern
Mohawk Valley. The rivers/streams will continue to crest late
this afternoon through tonight. Any additional flooding on the
main stem rivers will depend where additional heavy rain occurs.
We continue to carefully monitor rivers and streams in western
New England where the heaviest rain may occur into tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The low pressure system and the mid and upper low slowly moves
east of the region on Thu. Some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible with lighter rainfall amounts. Temps
will still run below normal with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
High pressure begins to build in from the west/northwest from
the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes Region for Friday with
mainly dry conditions aside from an isolated pop-up
shower/thunderstorm over the western New England higher terrain
and the eastern Adirondacks. Max temps will rise back into the
70s to lower 80s with moderate humidity levels with dewpoints in
the 60s. The first day of August will feature typical
summertime warmth and humidity on Saturday with temps 80-85F in
the valleys...and 70s to around 80F over the hills and mtns with
dry conditions. The drier weather should allow for streams,
creeks and rivers to recede into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00z Friday...Showers continue on and off tonight into
tomorrow morning at all terminals, becoming more scattered by
tomorrow afternoon. Within showers, MVFR to IFR vsbys possible.
Currently, seeing mainly VFR conditions, except at ALB which has
IFR vsbys and cigs. With abundant low-level moisture, expecting
all terminals to trend down to MVFR and eventually IFR cigs
overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, improving back to MVFR
late tomorrow morning and eventually to VFR (outside of showers)
tomorrow afternoon at ALB/GFL/POU. Winds will be at 5-10 kt from
the E/NE tonight, switching to the N/NW tomorrow still at 5-10
kt.

Outlook...

Thursday Night to Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG
WX. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...CHC TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...CHC
TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35/15
AVIATION...35