780
FXUS61 KALY 142342
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
742 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes from the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry, fall-like weather will continue through Tuesday before
temperatures moderate back to above normal levels for mid to
late week along with increasing chances for showers and some
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will build overhead tonight. The combination of
winds trending calm along with a dry airmass aloft (-1 to -2
STDEV) will allow for ideal radiational cooling conditions. Low
temperatures by daybreak Tuesday should fall into the 40s for
most areas, except mid to upper 30s across portions of the
southern Adirondacks/southern VT and eastern Catskills. Some
patchy frost is expected in the more sheltered areas within the
SW Adirondacks and possibly eastern Catskills. However, coverage
potential for frost looks isolated at this time, therefore no
frost advisory was issued. Nevertheless, those with sensitive
plants/vegetation may want to take precautions in these areas.
Some patchy valley fog could also form late tonight.

High pressure slides off to the east by tomorrow allowing for a
south to southwesterly return flow to resume. It will remain
fall-like Tuesday before temperatures rebound by midweek back
into the upper 70s to around 80 in the valleys and lower to
mid-70s in the higher elevations. These temperatures will
continue through the end of the week. A front will approach the
area Tuesday night into early Wednesday but looks to wash out.
Pending how quickly it washes out, there could be a few showers
mainly north and west of Albany but overall confidence on this
is low. As a result, we kept a dry forecast at this time.

Another cold front will approach the area later Wednesday into
Thursday. In addition, precipitable water values will increase
to at or above 1.50 inches (+2 to +3 STDEV). Enough forcing
along the front could allow for some showers and thunderstorms
with Thursday the most likely day for activity at this time.
The high precipitable water values could lead to some heavy
downpours. High pressure should shift the front south enough for
dry weather on Friday before it lifts back northward with the
potential for additional rain and thunderstorms next weekend as
another system approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions start this TAF period. Periods of fog can develop
at KGFL, KALB, and KPSF between 07z and 13z. For KALB and KPSF,
confidence continues to be low so continued mention of patchy
fog with VFR/MVFR conditions. For KGFL, confidence is high for
fog with LIFR/IFR conditions through 11z that continues to be
mentioned in a TEMPO group. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue
throughout the TAF period. Winds continue to decrease through
06z to become light and variable to calm through 12-14z. Then,
light southerly winds return tomorrow afternoon ranging between
5 and 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24/33
AVIATION...05