569
FXUS61 KALY 101125
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
625 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong clipper system moves through today across eastern New
York and western New England. Temperatures and terrain will
influence rain/snow amounts today. Lake effect snow showers and
upslope snow with gusty winds behind the system for Thursday.
Cold, well below normal temperatures continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 - Widespread accumulating precipitation today with a strong
   clipper system moving through.

 - Winter Weather Advisories have been upgraded to Winter Storm
   Warnings in portions of southern Vermont for high elevation
   snowfall amounts greater than 7 inches.

 - Snowfall amounts greater than 7 inches for north of I-90 in
   portions of the southern Adirondacks today will contribute to
   difficult traveling conditions this afternoon and evening.

Discussion:

As of 2:30 AM EST...Latest surface observations and low-level
water vapor satellite imagery shows the strong clipper system
moving into the Great Lakes region that will continue to head
north and east today. This system brings onset precipitation
type to be all snow as colder air at the surface continues to
contribute temperatures being below freezing this morning
between 5 AM and 8 AM. The current forecast supports
temperatures across the western Adirondacks, southern Greens,
and portions of the eastern Catskills to remain below freezing
for an all snow event. Temperatures across valley locations will
need to be monitored closely this afternoon as snow mixes with
rain before transitioning to all rain for the late afternoon
hours. Outside of high terrain locations, the current forecast
supports light rain/snowfall amounts. Snowfall amounts range
between a coating to 2 inches. Rainfall amounts range between a
tenth to a quarter.

For southern Vermont, snowfall amounts in the valleys range between
1 to 4 inches. Latest forecast guidance models are supporting
snowfall totals above 1000 feet to range between 6 and 12 inches. As
these new higher totals support warning criteria, the Winter Weather
Advisory for Bennington and western Windham counties have been
upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. But, this is will highly
elevation dependent as elevations below 1000 feet are forecasted in
that 1 to 4 inch range due to temperatures staying more mild for
a more rain/snow mix. For the eastern Catskills, most locations
range between 2 to 5 inches. A Winter Weather Advisory
continues for western Ulster county where localized amounts
range between 4 and 6 inches.

For the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley, latest NBM
and high resolution model guidances continue to support the highest
snowfall totals north of the New York State Thruway (I-90). A narrow
band of higher totals to the north comes from where the moderate to
heavy bands of snowfall set up for today as snowfall rates could
range between 1 to 2 inches per hour. For the western Mohawk Valley,
temperatures rise above freezing during the afternoon hours for that
transition over from snow to rain. Snowfall totals range on the
lower end between 1 to 3 inches. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories continue for these locations from this
morning through tonight.

Bottom line up front, the terrain and temperatures are
going to be the biggest influence with this clipper system for
snowfall totals today. Be prepared for winter weather impacts
this afternoon and evening in high terrain locations. By
tonight and Thursday morning, the clipper system heads north and
east. Behind this system, lake effect snow showers and upslope
snow return for Thursday as well as gusty winds. Additional
snowfall amounts are currently forecasted to be between 0.5
inches and 3 inches.

Latest probabilities from the National Blend of Models (NBM) data
for winds gusting greater than 40 mph is between 50 and 80 percent
for the northern Berkshires. Probabilities across the highest
terrain locations in the eastern Catskills have increased to between
50 and 60 percent for greater than 40 mph wind gusts. Elsewhere
across eastern New York and western New England, probabilities are
less than 30 percent. The higher side of those probabilities are for
the eastern slopes of the Berkshires as the terrain will play a part
in if winds exceed 40 mph. Nevertheless, winds will be gusty
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as the clipper system heads
further north and east with winds gusting between 25 and 35 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- A colder airmass returns overhead Sunday into early next week
  with well below normal temperatures continuing across eastern
  New York and western New England.

Discussion:

Lake effect snow showers taper off Thursday night and Friday
with low chances remaining for light snow showers Friday across
Herkimer county. Most locations stay dry and cold with highs in
the 20s and low 30s. Winds decrease Friday morning with gusts
between 5 and 15 mph. Our weather pattern into the weekend
remains active as ensemble forecast model guidances are
supporting an upper level trough to dig southward and move
through eastern New York and western New England bringing low to
medium chances for snow showers Saturday and Sunday. Associated
with this trough is much colder air behind it with an arctic
front moving through Sunday. This contributes to the potential
for bitterly cold temperatures Monday morning with lows ranging
five below to the single digits. Dry conditions are favored to
briefly return Monday as the upper level trough heads east and
upper level ridging moves in. Highs Monday range in the teens
and 20s. These below normal temperatures stick around for
Tuesday with cold lows in the single digits and highs in the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12z Thursday...Snow onset delayed a few hours from
previous forecast, now expected between 13z-15z at KGFL and
14z-17z and will continue mention TEMPO for IFR vsby and MVFR
cigs. Prevailing snow then anticipated after 15z at KGFL and 17z
at KALB, with conditions deteriorating to IFR. The precip onset
will take longer at KPOU/KPSF, so will mention TEMPOs early-mid
afternoon for IFR vsby at KPSF and MVFR vsby at KPOU. Steadier
precip should move in across these sites between 19z-20z, with
temperatures warming enough for a rain/snow mix at KPOU with
prevailing snow at KPSF. Conditions will deteriorate to IFR at
KPSF but should mainly remain MVFR at KPOU. Some rain could even
mix in at KALB by around 20z. Steady precip should end at
KALB/KPOU by 00z-01z Thu, but should linger at KGFL/KPSF into
the evening with conditions likely to remain IFR at KGFL/KPSF
with MVFR at KALB/KPOU.

As a southerly jet of 40-45 kt at 2000 ft AGL moves overhead
this morning into the afternoon, will mention low level wind
shear at all sites with surface winds generally 12 kt or less.
The LLWS will dissipate during the evening at the jet shift east
of the area. Surface winds will be southerly around 7-12 kt
with occasional gusts around 20 kt. Winds will shift to the west
after 06z Thu at 10-15 kt with gusts of 25 kt at KALB/KPSF.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ032-033-
     082.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ038-
     041>043-063-083.
MA...None.
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...07