196
FXUS61 KALY 131043
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
643 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The current work week will close with a persistence of
dry conditions before the weekend opens with unsettled weather.
Temperatures will begin a cooling trend today, falling below normal
once again for this weekend. However, a moderating trend beginning
Monday will bring us back up to normal and even above normal by the
middle of next week. And an unsettled pattern will ensure these
warmer temperatures are met with additional chances for scattered
showers across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 630 AM EDT...Made some minor adjustments to
temperatures and sky cover to reflect latest obs and satellite
scans. All else remains unchanged with additional details in the
previous discussion below.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...[401 AM EDT]
Another lovely June day lies ahead with zonal flow prevailing
aloft as surface high pressure noses south and east from
Ontario/Quebec. The slackened pressure gradient across the
region will make for less breezy conditions in comparison to
yesterday with highs a bit cooler courtesy of
north/northwesterly flow in the wake of yesterday`s cold front
and variable cloud cover spreading in well ahead of a mid-level,
closed low traversing the Plains. Values will range from the
mid/upper 60s to low 70s across higher elevations to mid/upper
70s in large valley areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Our much-needed period of tranquility comes to an end late
tonight as chances for rain increase again in the face of an
incoming upper shortwave and a wave of low pressure developing
along yesterday`s cold front, now nearly a stationary boundary
draped horizontally across the Mid-Atlantic. Latest guidance has
maintained the farther southward position of this boundary,
yielding a persistent downward trend in QPF tonight through
Saturday given the greater displacement of stronger forcing from
our region. Additionally, the aforementioned high that will
maintain its position just to our northwest, has shown a slight
amplification trend tonight into Saturday morning. The
counteracting subsidence will therefore pose a detriment to the
resultant vertical ascent of the intersection of the divergent
zone of the upper shortwave and enhanced low-level convergence
of the northward-protruding inverted trough associated with the
low pressure wave along the boundary.

That said, rain will be more showery and scattered in nature as
opposed to continuous in most places with the exception being
portions of the Eastern Catskills, lower Mid-Hudson Valley, and
Litchfield County given their adjacency to the better forcing.
Showers will begin late tonight, lasting through much of
Saturday before coverage decreases with the departure of the
shortwave and the southward progress of the boundary. When all
is said and done, rainfall amounts look to range from about
0.15" to 0.25" with locally higher amounts of nearly 0.3" in the
Eastern Catskills.

With surface low pressure remaining nearby and mid to upper-
levels remaining unsettled through Sunday, isolated to
scattered showers will remain possible. However, most will
likely stay dry Sunday into Sunday night with limited moisture
and forcing around. Temperatures this weekend will be on the
cooler side, falling back below normal levels by Saturday. Lows
Friday night will range from the upper 40s to upper 50s with
highs Saturday then rising widely into the 60s. Saturday night`s
lows will be similar to those of Friday night with highs Sunday
rising a few degrees above Saturday`s. Finally, lows Sunday
night will widely span the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level flow to start the week will be fairly zonal,
although heights and temps aloft will be rising towards the middle
of the week, as upper level ridging establishes itself just off the
eastern seaboard over the western Atlantic Ocean.  At the surface, a
frontal boundary will be stalled to the south on Monday, but will be
gradually lifting northward as a warm front by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Overall, the weather should be fairly benign through much of the
long term period.  While daytime temps will only be in the 70s for
Monday and Tuesday, they should be reaching into the 80s for valley
areas by Wednesday and Thursday, with even some upper 80s by later
in the week.

Sky cover will generally be partly cloudy each day.  A few brief
showers are possible on Monday and Tuesday, although a better chance
for showers and possible thunderstorms may be Wednesday into
Thursday, as the warm front lifts northward and an upper level
disturbance starts approaching from the west.  Greatest coverage
will be during the afternoon and evening hours thanks to daytime
heating.  At this point, there won`t be much of a threat for any
locally heavy rain or strong storms through Tuesday, although it`s
more uncertain for later in the week and this will come into better
focus as it gets closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region to start
the morning. IR satellite imagery shows widespread thin cirrus
clouds over the area. Through the mid-morning hours, it will
remain dry with bkn high clouds around 25 kft with light to calm
winds.

Through the day, it will continue to stay VFR with no precip.
By this afternoon, there will be sct mid level clouds around
10-15 kft along with some additional cirrus clouds, but no
aviation impacts are expected and surface winds will remain
light, mainly about 5 kts or so, from a northerly direction.

Clouds may start to increase for this evening into tonight as a
frontal system starts getting closer to the area from the south
and west. Ceilings will lower, with bkn cigs around 5kft, along
with additional mid level clouds. A few showers are possible on
tonight, so brief MVFR conditions can`t be ruled out, mainly by
later in the overnight hours. Winds will be light to calm for
all sites.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis