807
FXUS61 KALY 122346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
746 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low pressure system brings widespread rainfall to eastern
New York and western New England this evening into tonight.
Rain continues into the day tomorrow becoming more scattered for
tomorrow afternoon and evening before dry conditions return
Tuesday. Dry conditions continue through the end of the work
week into at least the first half of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 - Beneficial rainfall tonight and tomorrow with widespread
   rainfall amounts over 0.25 inches.

 - Across the higher terrain of the eastern Catskills,
   confidence continues to increase for rainfall amounts over 2
   inches in 48 hours.

Discussion:

Rain is on the way from the southeast to northwest this
afternoon into tonight as a coastal low moves northward along
the Atlantic coast and brings widespread beneficial rainfall to
eastern New York and western New England. Latest radar scans
show light rainfall moving into Litchfield county that continues
to head northeast. A few rain showers are moving through ahead
of the main event, but should only bring less than a trace of
precipitation. The current forecast supports widespread
rainfall amounts over 0.25 inches. For locations south and east
of Albany, rainfall amounts continue to support for over 0.5
inches. Terrain influence over the southeast Catskills, Mid-
Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills and Windham county in southern
Vermont support for over 1 inch of rainfall in the 48 hour
period through Tuesday morning. Latest National Blend of Model
data, high resolution model, and ensemble forecast model
guidances continue to support for the higher terrain locations
in the eastern Catskills for over 2 inches of rainfall in 48
hours from tonight through Tuesday morning. The period of
steadiest rainfall is overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.
The primary impact is that this rainfall is beneficial for
locations that have been seeing very dry conditions and there
are no flash flooding concerns as rainfall rates will be less
than 0.25 inches per hour. Breezy conditions continue for
locations south and east of Albany through tonight into the day
tomorrow with gusts ranging between 20 and 30 mph. Winds
decrease tomorrow evening as the low heads east to less than 15
mph.

Temperatures are going to only have a minimal difference
overnight into tomorrow morning as the clouds help the surface
keep warm with air temperatures ranging in the 40s tonight.
Highs in the 50s tomorrow and in the 50s to low 60s for Tuesday.
As the coastal low heads east tomorrow night, dry conditions
return for Tuesday. A dry cold front moves through Tuesday
bringing colder air behind it for Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning with lows in the 30s and mid- 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions continue under surface high pressure. For
Wednesday, breezy conditions are in store for the afternoon
hours as upper level winds mix down to the surface is supported
by latest ensemble forecast model guidances to occur. The
current forecast supports wind gusts ranging between 20 and 30
mph. High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecasted
to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal with highs ranging in the 40s
and 50s. For low temperatures, 10 to 15 degrees below normal
with highs in the 20s and 30s. Thursday night into Friday
morning could be a few degrees colder than currently forecasted
as clear skies and cold air aloft sinks down to the surface
during the overnight hours, but the current forecast is doing
well with low temperatures during that timeframe with higher
terrain locations in the mid-20s to low to mid-30s in the
valleys.

The most likely scenario (supported by 85% of cluster ensemble
members) for Saturday is for dry conditions to continue through the
day with low chances of rain showers to move through the western
Adirondacks during the late afternoon hours. Beyond the daytime
hours for Saturday, ensemble forecast model guidances start to
disagree with if we continue to see dry conditions or if an upper
level trough that brings 15 to 30 percent chances of light rain
showers for Saturday night. The latest forecast supports for light
rain shower activity Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00z/Tue...A coastal low will impact KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
the next 24 hours. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower
from south to north with MVFR conditions at KPSF/KPOU early
tonight and low VFR at KALB/KGFL. Expect widespread MVFR
conditions to overspread all the TAF sites between 00Z-06Z/Mon
and the rain will pick up intensity with widespread IFR
cigs/vsbys at KPSF/KPOU between 06Z-12Z/Mon. The rain shield
will expand northward into KALB/KGFL around 12Z/Mon and expect
IFR conditions to be possible at these sites. The IFR/low MVFR
conditions will persist through the late morning and early pm.
The rainfall may taper to scattered showers or areas of drizzle
after 18Z/Mon, but expect widespread IFR/low MVFR conditions
with cigs/vsbys to the end of the TAF cycle.

The wind will be north/northeast 8-15 kt tonight with some gusts
around 20-25 KT at KPSF/KPOU persist into the early afternoon.
Northerly winds will continue in the afternoon around 10 KT.
LLWS is expected at POU/KPSF tonight through late Mon
morning/early pm with winds at 2000 ft between 40-45 KT and
sustained sfc winds generally 10-15 KT or less. KALB/KGFL may
have a brief period of LLWS 16Z-23Z/Mon, as 2 kft AGL winds will
be about 40 KT with sfc winds 10 KT or less.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05/37
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...15