Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 241439
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1039 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge into the area from eastern Canada and
northern New England today, bringing fair weather and seasonably
cool temperatures. A warm front will bring periods of rain on
Tuesday, while a cold front will bring showers and a few
thunderstorms on Wednesday. A return to cool and dry weather is
forecast for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1035 AM EDT, biggest adjustment made to the forecast this
morning was increasing sky cover across western New England,
mid-Hudson valley and the eastern Catskills. Persistent easterly
flow has ushered in a low cloud deck across these areas. This
will inhibit the temperatures as well so have freshened up the
hourly temps. May also have to lower the high temperatures in
some locations if the low clouds persist into the afternoon,
especially across our western New England counties.

Prev Disc...As of 615 AM EDT, still some areas of fog/low
clouds just east of the Hudson River into the Taconics southeast
of Albany, as well as across portions of the western Mohawk
Valley, Schoharie Valley, mid Hudson Valley and portions of
northern Berkshire County. Temps have cooled into the mid/upper
30s across portions of the southwest Adirondacks, with mainly
lower/mid 40s elsewhere.

Once areas of fog/low stratus lift (between 8 and 10 AM),
expect a mostly sunny morning, before high clouds increase from
south to north this afternoon. In addition, some lower clouds,
currently expanding west across eastern/central MA and NE CT,
may continue expanding west into the SE Catskills/mid Hudson
Valley and Litchfield County during the late morning and
especially this afternoon as well.

It will become a bit breezy this afternoon as the low level
pressure gradient tightens between strong high pressure to our
north, and lowering pressure to our south and west with an
approaching warm front. Afternoon high temperatures should reach
the lower/mid 60s in valley areas, and mid 50s to lower 60s for
higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level impulse currently across the lower MS Valley will
begin tracking northeast. A warm front associated with
developing low pressure well to our west will approach late
tonight and Tuesday. A surge of isentropic lift along the
300-305 K surfaces should allow for a swath of moderate rain to
spread northeast across the region around daybreak, and
encompass much of the region Tuesday morning. There could be
some embedded heavier pockets of rain as well, especially given
the strength of the incoming low level jet which could reach
50-60 KT around H850. Rain may become more intermittent during
the afternoon from southwest to northeast, as the strongest
surge of isentropic lift begins shifting north and east of the
region.

Winds will increase in response to the approach/passing low
level jet segment. Wind gusts Tuesday morning/early afternoon
may reach up to 40 mph across higher terrain of the SE
Catskills, SW Adirondacks, and especially the higher terrain of
the central/northern Taconics, southern Greens and Berkshires.
These areas will need to be watched, as any slightly higher wind
magnitudes would require the issuance of wind advisories.

Temperatures should be quite cool Tuesday due to strong wet bulb
cooling effects from the rain and initially dry low level air
mass in place. Expect highs to only reach the mid 50s to around
60, with highs most likely occurring toward or after sunset.
Some areas of the southern Adirondacks/Lake George region and
Berkshires may barely reach the mid 50s by late in the day.

For Tuesday night, there should be a relative lull in forcing,
with persistent weak isentropic lift along with orographic
effects being the main forcing mechanisms. As such, expect only
some passing showers, along with areas of drizzle through the
night.

On Wednesday, a cold front will be approaching from the west.
The air mass ahead of the front will certainly be moist, with
PWAT`s surging to 1.5-2 inches. However, the degree of low
cloudiness and instability remain in question, as a weakening
late September sun angle may limit potential breaks in the
clouds, as seen last Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has
placed all of eastern NY and adjacent western New England within
a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, with the main threat
being strong/damaging wind gusts within any possible
linear/bowing line segments that can develop. Again, degree of
instability remains in question, as persistent low level clouds
could reduce coverage of thunderstorms. With high PWAT`s in
place, along with a fairly unidirectional low/mid level wind
field, will also have to watch for possible training
showers/thunderstorms which could raise heavy rain potential.
Max temps should reach the lower/mid 70s for lower elevations,
and 65-70 across higher terrain, although if breaks in the
clouds develop, warmer max temps could easily occur.

Wednesday night, the cold front should continue moving east
across the region, with showers/thunderstorms mainly confined to
areas east of the Hudson River in the evening, with clearing
then possible from west to east later in the evening through
daybreak Thursday. Temps will cool back into the mid 40s to
lower/mid 50s by late night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term period will start out dry and end unsettled.

On Thursday High pressure will settle across the region with dry and
seasonable conditions expected. Highs will be in the upper 50s to
around 70, The ridge of high pressure will move northeast into
northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes Thursday night with
dry weather continuing. Lows Thursday night will be in the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

There will be a chance of showers on Friday as a complex frontal
system approaches and passes through the region. Highs will be in
the upper 50s to lower 70s with lows Friday night in the mid 40s to
mid 50s.

Saturday and Saturday night look to be mainly dry as another ridge
of high pressure builds across the region. Highs on Saturday will be
in the mid 50s to lower 70s.

On Saturday night and Sunday there will be a chance of showers
across the northern third of the forecast area as a cold front drops
into northern New York and northern New England. Lows Saturday night
will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s with highs on Sunday in the mid
50s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
After any lingering fog dissipates, VFR conditions are expected
today through much of tonight with just some sct high clouds
and a few diurnal cumulus around. The high clouds may start to
increase in coverage by late in the day as a warm front starts
to approach from the south.

During the second half of tonight rain will start to move into
the region. The rain will arrive between 05Z and 08Z. Have
placed a PROB30 in the TAFS to account for the initial start
time with widespread rain between 09Z and 11Z. Visibilities will
generally be MVFR/VFR with ceilings generally MVFR/IFR.

Light north-northeast winds in the morning will become
southeast during the day and increase to 7-13 kts by late
morning or afternoon with gusts 21-26 kts at KALB and KPSF
tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...DZ.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will ridge into the area from eastern Canada and
northern New England today, bringing fair weather and seasonably
cool temperatures. A warm front will bring periods of rain on
Tuesday, while a cold front will bring showers and a few
thunderstorms on Wednesday. A return to cool and dry weather is
forecast for Thursday.

Relative humidity values will recover to 80 to 100 percent
tonight, and drop to 50 to 65 percent this afternoon, then
recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight.

Northeast winds will increase to 5-15 mph this morning, then
veer into the east to southeast at similar speeds this afternoon
into tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Fair and seasonably cool weather is expected through today.

There is the potential for 1 to 3 inches of rain from late
tonight into Wednesday evening. A warm front will bring periods
of rain on Tuesday, while a cold front will bring showers and a
few thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon. WPC has placed much
of eastern New York and western New England in a marginal to
slight risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Periods of heavy rainfall may produce some urban and poor
drainage flooding as well as perhaps some small stream flooding.
Additionally, localized heavy rain is possible on Wednesday
afternoon from thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the area.

At this time, extended river forecast models show no flooding
is forecast on the main stem rivers, but some half to three
quarter bank full rises are possible.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/JLV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...Frugis/11
FIRE WEATHER...SND/KL
HYDROLOGY...SND/KL


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