Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 070847
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
347 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge in today with some sunshine, and
continued colder than normal temperatures to close the weekend. The
surface high will continue fair and cold weather to open the week,
but a weak disturbance and a warm front will increase clouds and
bring some scattered snow showers and flurries Monday night. A
warming trend persists Tuesday through the mid week with
temperatures rising well above normal for March.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 347 AM EST...The mid and upper longwave trough over the
Northeast and eastern Canada will persist one more day with
chilly cyclonic flow. The core of the upper low will drift
northeast of Labrador and New Foundland today. The air mass will
remain cold for early March standards, but the winds will be
lighter, as high pressure will be ridging at the sfc from the
Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada. Expect northwest winds
of 5 to 15 mph and more sunshine.

Model soundings and RH profiles show more drier air mixing in
from a loft and a trend to partly to mostly sunny skies with the
subsidence from the ridge. 925 hPa temps will range from -6C
over the Mid Hudson Valley and NW CT to -12C over the southern
Adirondacks. Mixing heights should be shallower than previous
days. Max temps will still run close to 10 degrees below
normal. The normal high for Albany is 41F today, and we will be
around 30F. Expect highs to be in the upper teens to mid 20s
over the mtns, and mid 20s to to lower 30s in the valleys with a
few mid 30s over the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Tonight...A 1033 hPa or so sfc anticyclone moves over upstate NY
and southern Quebec. Mid and upper level heights will rise
across the region. Mostly clear to clear skies and light to
calm winds will allow for ideal radiational cooling conditions.
Temps will plummet where the snowpack is deepest over the
mountains and north of the I-90 corridor. Lows will be mainly in
single digits with some teens south/southeast of the Capital
District. Some zero to 5 below zero readings are possible in
the Adirondack Park and southern Greens.

Monday...Another fair day is expected with the sfc anticyclone
near the East Coast and heights continue to rise ahead of a
weak sfc cyclone approaching from the upper Great Lakes Region
and Ontario. In the low to mid level warm advection pattern
H850 temps warm to -1C to -5C during the day based on the
GFS/NAM.

Some mid and high clouds increase from the west/northwest
during day. Temps slowly trek upward with upper 20s to mid 30s
over the higher terrain and mid 30s to around 40F in the valley
locations and across the hills

Monday Night...The warm front tied to the weak disturbance
moving across southeast Canada in the west to northwest flow
aloft will bring some isolated to scattered snow showers and
flurries. The depth of the low level moisture looks scant and
the synoptic forcing is not strong. The NAM/QPF paint some very
light QPF across the region. There could be some coatings to
few tenths of an inch of snow over the higher terrain and north
of ALY. Temps may tail off early in the evening into the upper
teens and 20s and then rise some overnight.

Tuesday...A weak cold front slides through in the morning with
limited cold advection. The sfc winds will shift to the west
northwest, and then the uptick of temps begins. We could see the
warmest temps of 2021 in some locations with downsloping off
the eastern Catskills, Helderbergs and eastern Adirondacks
combined with deeper mixing close to H850. The temps at H850
will be in the -1C to +2C range based on the 00Z/GFS late in the
day. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected with max temps
in the upper 40s to lower and spotty mid 50s (closer to KPOU) in
the valleys, and upper 30s to mid 40s over the mtns. KALB has
not hit 50F this year and we could be close to that number on
TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended forecast period will feature Spring-like
temperatures to start the period Wednesday and Thursday before
turning colder late week and during the weekend. The long-term
period starts off dry, but precipitation chances increase
Thursday and Friday due to an approaching cold front.

We start off the period Tuesday night with an anomalously strong
H500 ridge over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a strong 1032 mb
high pressure system will be sliding to our east. Winds will turn
out of the south-southwest with a warm front lifting over the area
during the day on Wednesday. This will effectively put the area in
the warm sector of a storm system to our west and allow for increase
temperature and moisture advection to take place. High temperatures
will climb into the 60s along the Hudson Valley Wednesday and
Thursday. Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday night Thursday as
the cold front nears. Wednesday night into Thursday, precipitation
will increase in coverage from northwest to southeast. Given the
warm airmass in place, precipitation will be in the form of rain.
The bulk of the rain will be confined to areas northwest of the
Hudson Valley (Wednesday night into Thursday). Rain looks to
eventually get into the rest of the area Thursday night into Friday.
This is where we have our highest confidence of more widespread
rainfall including the Capital District (Thursday night into
Friday). Sometime during Friday afternoon hours, things look to dry
out from west to east. With the cold fropa, a cooler airmass will
take place over the weekend.

Forecast models namely the EC/CMC are indicating a shortwave/surface
storm system ejecting out of southeastern Canada. Should this
verify, we could get some additional precipitation in the form
of snow showers in the Sunday to Monday timeframe.

As touched on earlier, temperatures are forecast to be Spring-like
during the beginning parts of the long-term period. Daytime highs
Wednesday and Thursday will climb into the 50s and 60s with the
warmest temperatures located along the Hudson Valley from Albany and
points south. Temperatures will then fall Friday through Sunday due
to the aforementioned cold front. Daytime high temperatures Friday
will be in the 40s and 50s, Saturday 30s and 40s, and mostly 30s on
Sunday. Nighttime low temperatures will be in the 20s to near 30
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, 30s and 40s Wednesday and
Thursday nights, 20s and 30s Friday night, and mostly 20s Saturday
and Sunday nights. Overall, anomalies will run warmer than average
during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday....

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the 06z TAF cycle.
Expect mainly overcast skies with ceilings around 3-4 kft with a
shortwave overhead. As a 1028 mb surface high pressure system builds
into the region, cloud coverage will show some improvements
during the day on Sunday.

While winds will be near calm at KGFL, winds will be generally 5-10
kts out of the north-northwest through the 06z TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday to Wed night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrological issues are expected through the mid
to latter portion of next week.

Cold and mainly dry weather will persist today into Monday with
little impact on the waterways. Any decrease in snowpack will
be through sublimation. A weak disturbance and a warm front will
bring a few hundredths of QPF to a few spots Monday night.

Tuesday through the mid week temperatures will moderate above
normal with some snow melt. The next chance of widespread
showers may not occur until late Thu into Fri. Total QPF does
not look very heavy with the frontal passage late in the week
with a tenth to a quarter inch perhaps across northern basins.
Some ripening of the dense snow pack is possible over the
northern moutains.  Some river and streams may show a diurnal
fluctuation in flows/hydro traces with snow melt through the mid
to end of the week. However, widespread ice break-up or hydro
issues are not anticipated at this time on the rivers/streams.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...Evbuoma
HYDROLOGY...Wasula



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