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000
FXUS61 KALY 251035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
635 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers in connection with a non tropical low that was
Ophelia will come to and end today with sky coverage improving
especially north and west of Albany. High pressure is expected to
build into the region from the north tonight into Tuesday giving way
to a stretch of mostly dry and seasonable weather conditions through
the workweek and into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update as of 6:30 AM EDT....Just made slight adjustments to the
hourly temperature, dewpoint, wx, and PoP grids to reflect
current observations and forecast trends. Rest of the going
forecast remains on track. See discussion below.

[PREVIOUS 406 AM]....Doppler radar continues to depict rainfall
shield over the area with the very northern fringe of this
precipitation shield being right along the I-90 corridor. This
rainfall is associated with a non- tropical system (that used to
be Ophelia) that is centered over the northern mid-Atlantic
Region. During the day today, expect for rainfall to come to an
end from north to south as the low shifts into the western
Atlantic Ocean. Clouds will hang around through the day today
with the least coverage north and west of Albany.

An Omega Block in the high latitudes featuring an anomalously strong
585 dam ridge/high (3-4 STDEVs above normal) centered over The
Hudson and James Bay will help to drive our temperature pattern
today and over the next few days. In fact this anomalously strong
ridge displaced to our north will bring an interesting temperature
pattern across eastern New York and western new England where
daytime highs will be warmest north and coolest south. Despite
abundant cloud coverage today, temperatures with the help of this
upper level feature will actually yield seasonable temperatures over
the Capital District, warmer than normal temperatures north and
cooler than normal south. Forecasted highs are expected to be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s along and north of I-90 (coolest values over
the higher elevations). Meanwhile, areas south of I-90 will see
highs today top out only in the upper 50s to lower 60s (coolest
values over the higher elevations).

Tonight into Tuesday, a 1030-1035 hpa surface high pressure system
will build into the region from Canada. This weather feature will
bring a return to dry and tranquil weather conditions. There could
be some clouds around especially south of I-90 tonight. Where
there is enough clearing, mist/fog could develop especially in
the fog prone areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday through Wednesday, dry and tranquil weather conditions
will persist with the aforementioned surface high anchored over
the region. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid to
upper 60s along the river valley (warmest north; coolest south)
and upper 50s to lower 60s over the higher elevations. On
Wednesday, high temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower
70s along the river valley (warmest north; coolest south) and
upper 50s to mid 60s higher elevations. Overnight lows Tuesday
and Wednesday nights are expected to be mainly in the 40s with
pockets of 30s over the higher elevations. Depending on how much
clearing takes place, there could be some frost that develops
Tuesday night int Wednesday morning over some of the higher
elevations. &&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather expected Thursday as low level ridging controls the
weather across the region. Highs Thursday in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

Northern stream upper energy tracks out of the Great Lakes and
OH Valley and weakens as it tracks through our region Friday and
Saturday. There is very little moisture associated with the system
and very little low level forcing. A mix of sun and clouds each day
with just a potential isolated shower, mainly from the eastern
Catskills through mid Hudson Valley, southern Berkshires and NW CT
but again, just isolated.

Highs Friday and Saturday in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Increasing
sun through Saturday and considerable sun on Sunday with highs
Sunday in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry weather expected Thursday as low level ridging controls the
weather across the region. Highs Thursday in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

Northern stream upper energy tracks out of the Great Lakes and
OH Valley and weakens as it tracks through our region Friday and
Saturday. There is very little moisture associated with the system
and very little low level forcing. A mix of sun and clouds each day
with just a potential isolated shower, mainly from the eastern
Catskills through mid Hudson Valley, southern Berkshires and NW CT
but again, just isolated.

Highs Friday and Saturday in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Increasing
sun through Saturday and considerable sun on Sunday with highs
Sunday in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Band of rain affecting KPOU, KPSF and KALB with the heaviest rain
between KPOU and KPSF.  The northern edge is around KALB and
southern edge is around KPOU.  The trend is for the band to shrink
and become narrower through mid morning before drifting back to the
south between daybreak and early afternoon while continuing to
break up.

So, periods of light rain with MVFR visibilities at KPOU and some
intervals of IFR ceilings possible through about 10Z. Just scattered
showers in the vicinity of KPOU through early afternoon, so keeping
VCSH. Steadier rain and MVFR conditions at KPSF continue through mid
morning, then keeping VCSH into early afternoon. Rain at KALB
remains quite light with VFR conditions through around 10Z, then
VCSH through about 13Z. No rain expected at KGFL with VFR conditions
through this evening.

VFR conditions at all TAF sites this afternoon and evening as clouds
above 3000 feet begin to break up. Light north winds at less than 10
Kt this morning will become northeast to east by this afternoon at
10 Kt or less, trending to around 6 Kt by this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Evbuoma
NEAR TERM...Evbuoma
SHORT TERM...Evbuoma
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS