Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 182323
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
723 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move across the region
tonight with light snow accumulations across the western Adirondacks
and the southern Greens.  Cool and brisk conditions continue
tomorrow with a chance of lake effect snow showers again.  It will
become cold and windy Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with a
strong cold front moving across the region with some accumulating
snow over the higher terrain north and west of the Capital Region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 723 PM EDT...A positively tilted mid level short-wave
trough will move across the region into tonight. Currently, just
some spotty rain and snow showers over the region, but a higher
coverage of snow showers is starting to take shape west of the
area over western and central New York. By later this evening,
scattered snow showers will become more organized in the wake of
the short-wave and the sfc trough within the west/northwest
flow for a lake effect band or bands to impact the western
Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and the northern Catskills
with some light snow accumulations of a half an inch to an inch
or two especially over the higher terrain.

Looking at the KRME BUFKIT sounding from the NAM, the inversion
starts up high above 10 kft AGL, but then lowers to 6-7 kft AGL.
Lake Instability class is conditional with H850 temps of ~-10C.
The boundary layer flow will veer to the W/NW and then back
with the inversion lowering towards daybreak. Upslope snow
showers will occur along the spine of the southern Green Mtns
with some accums of 1-3 inches possible.

It will be chilly and brisk tonight in the cold advection in the
wake of the sfc trough and upper level disturbance. West to
northwest winds will continue at 10 to 20 mph. Lows will be in
the 20s with teens over the southern Dacks and southern Greens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tomorrow...Another clipper low will be approaching from the
Upper Midwest and southern Ontario. The general mid and upper
level cyclonic flow will continue with below normal H850 temps
and low/mid level heights. The boundary layer flow backs to the
west and some weak warm advection will occurs ahead of this
system late in the day. Most of the day will dry and brisk from
the Hudson River Valley eastward. Some lake enhanced snow
showers with weak synoptic lift will start to increase late in
the day especially across the southern and western Dacks where
an additional inch or so of snow may occur. We did bring the
slight and low chance PoPs close to the Capital Region northward
towards sunset. Highs will run below normal by a few degrees
with upper 30s to lower 40s in the valleys and upper 20s to mid
30s over the higher terrain. Some mid 40s are possible in the
mid Hudson Valley.

Tue Night into Wednesday...This a time frame we will have to
monitor for perhaps some Winter Weather Advisories for the
western Dacks and southern Greens. Initially, some isentropic
lift occurs ahead of the clipper and its attendant warm front.
There may be some orographic enhancement with the W/SW flow off
the southern/western Dacks and southern Greens for 2-4" of snow
or possibly 3-6" in a few locations. We did lower the snow to
liquid ratios close to 15-13:1 instead of 18:20-1 so our tallies
are lower than WPC. Overall, dusting to an inch are possible
from from the Capital District and the northern/eastern
Catskills north including the Mohawk Valley. Lows will be in the
20s to lower 30s. Additional lake effect and upslope snow
showers are possible during the day Wednesday, but a strong cold
front will be approaching. Temps will warm to seasonal levels
ahead of the approaching for the late afternoon/evening time
frame. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s in the valleys with
some 50F reading near KPOU and 30s over the higher terrain.

A strong cold front moves across the region Wed night with
additional lake effect and upslope snow showers with strong
upper level dynamics. Additional snow accums of 1-3" are
possible over the higher terrain. It will become blustery and
cold Wed night into Thu. Lows will fall back into the teens and
20s in cold advection. The coldest day of the week will be Thu
with west/northwest winds 12-25 mph and gusts 30-45 mph. Max
temps will be about 10 degrees below normal. Some flurries or
scattered snow showers will linger over the Adirondack
Park. Highs will be in the 20s over the mtns and lower to upper
30s in the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weakening trough over the region Thursday night will give way to a
brief ridge of high pressure by Friday morning, reinforcing dry
conditions across eastern New York and western New England.
Tranquillity will persist through at least Friday night with cooler
than normal temperatures only expected to reach the mid to upper 30s
with pockets of upper 20s mainly in the SW Adirondacks and Southern
Greens and low 40s in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley.

An unsettled pattern ensues for the weekend, though the forecast
continues to be riddled with considerable uncertainty with long
range models struggling to come to a consensus on the tracks and
interaction of two key features: a northern stream shortwave and a
southern stream cutoff low. Despite the significant variability in
the details portrayed by the guidance, the more common solution
indicates the progression of the shortwave through the region
beginning late Friday night/early Saturday morning, bringing
widespread precipitation. Unphased, the northern-stream cutoff looks
to remain south of the region, negating any enhancement in
precipitation. The GFS, though the outlier, does suggest a solution
wherein these two features phase, which would lead to larger QPF
across much of the area.

The variations in the evolution of this scenario contribute
additional uncertainty to the precipitation type forecast. With a
cool antecedent airmass, low temperatures Friday night will
primarily span the 20s with upper tens in the SW Adirondacks and
Southern Greens and low 30s in the Hudson Valley. With precipitation
expected, at this point, to begin by late Friday night, onset type
is expected to be snow. However, as flow transitions to the
southwest into Saturday morning, inducing warm air advection, high
temperatures will rise into the upper 30s to mid 40s across much of
the area with pockets of low to mid 30s in the SW Adirondacks.
Ongoing precipitation will then transition to primarily rain except
at higher terrain where snow or a mix of the two will be possible.

Much of the precipitation should taper off by Saturday evening with
just some lingering lake-induced showers in the SW Adirondacks
Possible Saturday night into Sunday morning as left over energy
pulses through the region. Then, high pressure begins to build in
once again during the day Sunday to bring back dry conditions for
the remainder of the weekend and beginning of the work week. Highs
Sunday will be similar to Saturday with primarily 30s and 40s across
the region. Temperatures will then moderate into the low to mid 40s
with pockets of upper 30s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level shortwave trough is moving across the Northeast.
Cyclonic flow, aided by lake enhancement, is allowing for plenty
of stratocu across the region, but ceilings are around 4-6 kft,
keeping flying conditions VFR. Through the overnight hours,
bkn-ovc cigs will be similar, keeping it VFR. Most of the snow
shower activity will generally be west of the region, although a
few snow showers could get close to ALB/KPSF during the middle
of the overnight. Any snow shower looks brief and fairly spotty,
so won`t include more than a VCSH right now, but a brief
reduction to visibility can`t be totally ruled out. On Tuesday,
flying conditions will continue to be VFR. Sct-bkn cigs will
still be around 4000 to 6000 ft for all sites, with cloud
coverage slowly decreasing through the day.

West to northwest winds will be around 10 kts overnight, with
some higher gusts earlier in the overnight. Winds will still be
around 10 to 15 kts again on Tuesday with some higher gusts at
times.


Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values are expected to drop to around 35- 40 percent
tomorrow afternoon with wind gusts of 20 to 25 kt across
portions of the Hudson Valley and western Connecticut. Most
places are expected to see some light precipitation on
Wednesday, but Thursday afternoon may also feature low RH values
and breezy conditions in the afternoon.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...Main


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