Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 251045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
645 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and increasingly humid conditions are expected through the
upcoming weekend as a warm front lifts north of the region. A
couple of showers may affect the southern Adirondacks and
southern Vermont this morning, with clouds and isolated showers
possible Saturday afternoon, especially south and east of
Albany. Mainly dry conditions are expected for Sunday with a mix
of clouds and sun.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 610 AM EDT, isolated showers/sprinkles continue drifting
east/southeast across portions of the upper Hudson Valley (in
southern Washington County) and heading E/SE into southern VT.
These showers/sprinkles will likely persist for another couple
of hours as they track across portions of southern VT.

Elsewhere, skies remain partly cloudy, with patchy fog, some
locally dense, within many river valleys, particularly the
eastern Mohawk Valley, the Hudson River Valley from Glens
Falls/Saratoga south through Poughkeepsie, and the Housatonic
Valley in western New England.

Once any fog/low clouds lift, expect mostly sunny skies,
although smoke aloft will likely increase through the day,
leading to hazy skies and slightly dimmed sunshine. Isolated
showers may still occur through midday across portions of the
southern Adirondacks and southern VT, in close proximity to a
frontal system which has settled southward overnight. This front
should lift northward this afternoon, with chances for showers
decreasing as the forcing lifts north of the region.

Afternoon high temps should reach 75-80 in most valley areas,
and 70-75 across higher terrain areas. Some valley areas could
reach into the lower 80s within the mid Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, mild and somewhat humid, with patchy fog/low clouds
redeveloping within river valleys. Lows mainly in the 50s to
around 60, although some upper 40s could occur across portions
of the southern Adirondacks and perhaps portions of southern VT
and the Berkshires.

Still some uncertainty for Saturday, as NAM continues to suggest
low level moisture tracks northward into the region by
afternoon. This should at least increase cloud coverage in the
afternoon for areas from Albany and areas to the south/east, and
can not rule out isolated showers/patchy drizzle in some of
these areas, particularly higher elevations. Better chances for
sunshine through the afternoon for areas north of I-90, where
warmest temps will also likely occur, reaching 75-80. Areas
where clouds increase may only top out in the mid 70s for lower
elevations, and lower 70s across higher terrain.

Areas of low clouds/fog redevelop for Saturday night and
continue into Sunday morning, and again Sunday night. The low
clouds should erode in most areas by Sunday afternoon, however
could linger across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.
Otherwise, warm and humid, with lows Saturday and Sunday night
mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs Sunday ranging from
the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The pattern change begins with some much needed rainfall on the way.
The guidance continues to show an amplified pattern developing with
a deep trough digging over the eastern United States. However, timing
and amplitude differences of the smaller scale features are leading
to uncertainties in the forecast especially with the development
of an upper low level and the eastern progressive of the trough.
Guidance is slower with the trough due to an anomalous ridge
along the east coast. Once again have favored guidance from the
Weather Prediction Center to maintain forecast consistency.

Have keep pops limited high chance pops as there are concerns about
the timing of a strong cold front across the region. At this time,
the front is expected to cross the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday with widespread showers occurring as it approaches and
crosses the area. Above normal temperatures and humid conditions
are expected ahead of this boundary with a cooler seasonable
airmass being ushered in with its passage. Do have continued
chances for showers with the upper trough axis still to our west.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fog and stratus should burn off around 13Z with VFR conditions
then expected. A stalled boundary across the Adirondacks and
central Vermont will begin to lift northward as a warm front
this afternoon. Some cumulus clouds will form with the heating
of the day. Conditions will again be favorable for the
development of fog tonight with IFR conditions expected at KGFL
and KPSF.

A south to southwest flow develops at less 10 knots today with
winds diminishing this evening.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and increasingly humid conditions are expected through the
upcoming weekend as a warm front lifts north of the region. A
couple of showers may affect the southern Adirondacks and
southern Vermont this morning, with clouds and isolated showers
possible Saturday afternoon, especially south and east of
Albany. Mainly dry conditions are expected for Sunday with a mix
of clouds and sun.

RH should fall to 40-60 percent this afternoon, then recover to
near 100 percent tonight with widespread dew formation and
patchy fog likely. RH should fall to 45-65 percent Saturday
afternoon.

Light/variable winds will become south to southwest at 5-10 mph
this afternoon, then become light/variable tonight. On Saturday,
winds will become south to southwest and increase to 5-15 mph,
with some gusts of 20-25 mph possible within portions of the
Hudson River Valley and across the southwest Adirondacks.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Latest drought monitor shows a slight increase in adjustment
westward of intensity (D0-D1), most notably across western New
England, into the I84 corridor and portions of the Taconics.

Other than isolated showers, mainly dry conditions should
prevail through the upcoming weekend. Chances for showers will
increase during the early to middle portion of next week as a
slow moving cold front approaches from the west. There is some
possibility for widespread rainfall as this front approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...KL/BGM
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM


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