Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 171039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
639 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

It will be partly cloudy, breezy and chilly through the weekend
as Canadian high pressure builds in at the surface. We are still
watching the potential for a storm the middle of next week.


Mean upper trough axis just east of our region producing deep
northwest flow as a little upper impulse tracks north of our
region today. The brush with the upper energy and some slightly
enhanced forcing due to a reinforcing shot of cooler air will
support some snow flurries in some areas today. Highs in the
30s but some lower 40s southern areas and 20s in higher terrain
with gusty winds continuing over our region.


Mean upper trough axis very slowly builds east, relaxing the low
level thermal and pressure gradients. Flat upper ridging and
some low level ridging will build east and south out of south
central Canada through Monday.

So, some slight warming of boundary layer temperatures will
occur, especially by Monday. However, with light winds proximate
to the low level ridge axis, even with the strong March sun,
snowpack and light winds should prevent too much of a warmup.

Highs Sunday in the 30s but 20s in higher terrain. Highs Monday
in the 30s to around 40 but again, 20s higher terrain. Low
temperatures could approach or get below zero in northern areas
Saturday night and Sunday night. Even the Capital Region could
drop to around 10 or lower teens each night.


Latest trends in 00Z model guidance suite indicate lower
probabilities for a winter storm affecting our region. Still,
caution must be stressed since we are still 4-5 days away from
the potential storm. There is increasing confidence in a drier
forecast for the Tuesday through Wednesday night time frame,
with the developing ocean storm now expected to emerge off the
mid Atlantic coast and head out to sea.

The main change in the guidance from 24 hours ago results from
the initial lead short wave moving much more progressively
eastward through the central Appalachians and mid Atlantic
region on Tuesday, while a second short wave quickly advances
eastward (and farther south) but remains separate from the
first, Tuesday night into Wednesday. The result is phasing
occurring farther south and off- shore than it appeared
yesterday. There is good agreement now between the 00Z
deterministic GFS and ECMWF. Also, the majority of the GEFS
ensemble members now have zero precip for Albany with only a few
members indicating at least some QPF. So while trends all point
to this storm missing our region, this cannot be written off
just yet as there are several pieces of energy that could be key
players that may not be represented correctly at this time
frame. We will continue to monitor, while trending the forecast
drier for now.

The Thursday through Friday period looks to be quiet, as dry
and cool northerly flow is expected to persist with high
pressure residing over southeast Canada. The extended period of
below normal temperatures will persist through the next 7 days,
but appears to be mainly dry at this time.


VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of the 24 hour
TAF period ending 12Z Sunday. With a cold northwest flow regime
remaining in place, there will still be periods of BKN cigs in
the 3500-5000 ft AGL range. Some moisture remains trapped
beneath an inversion today, so clouds should build again by this
afternoon at KALB/KGFL/KPSF. A few flurries will be possible at
these sites this afternoon due to a surface trough passing
through. Skies should remain generally SCT at KPOU due to

Winds today will initially be west around 7-15 kt, becoming
west-northwest by this afternoon and increasing to around 15-20
kt, with gusts of 25-30 kt. Winds speeds will gradually diminish
after dark tonight.


Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday:  Slight Chance of SN.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.


The Fire Weather season has officially begun across eastern New
York and western New England. Despite this, wintry weather is
firmly in place across the region, which will mitigate any
potential fire weather hazards for the time being.

It will be partly cloudy, breezy and chilly through the weekend
as Canadian high pressure builds in at the surface. We are still
watching the potential for a storm the middle of next week.


No hydrologic issues are anticipated through early next week.

Some isolated snow showers are expected today. Otherwise,
partly cloudy, yet chilly weather, is expected through at least
Monday. The potential for another storm the middle of next week
is being monitored.

A slow diurnal snowmelt is expected the next several days,
where temperatures get above freezing during the day, and then
fall below at night. The impacts on the waterways will be little
to none with minimal, if any, rises.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.




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