Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KALY 240735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
335 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes Region
and southeast Canada today and through the weekend.  It will be
cooler and less humid with partly to mostly sunny conditions.
Temperatures will run a little below normal for late August.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 335 AM EDT...A positively tilted upper trough continues to
be from the OH Valley northeast into New England and the
Canadian Maritimes. A closed H500 anticyclone is over the Upper
Midwest. Cyclonic flow will continue aloft, but a broad surface
anticyclone will be ridging in from the Great Lakes Region, and
southern Ontario and Quebec today.

Some patchy radiational fog will burn off in the major river
valleys this morning. Despite a decaying upper trough aloft,
sunshine will mix with clouds. The clouds will be more prevalent
over and just west of the higher terrain. H850 temps will be in
the +8C to +10C range. Max temps will run about 5 degrees below
normal with comfortable humidity levels. Highs will be in the
lower to mid 70s in the valley locations, and 60s over the
higher terrain. The winds will be north to northeast at 10 mph
or less.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...The upper trough closes off and pushes south of the
region. High pressure will be building in from southeast
Canada. Some clouds may linger with at least partly clouds skies
south of I-90. Further north, it will be clear or mostly clear
with light to calm winds. Some radiational shallow river
mist/fog will be possible once again. Lows will be in the 40s
over the southern Adirondacks, portions of the Lake George
Region, southern VT and the eastern Catskills. Expect 50s in
most other locations.

Sunday...The H500 closed low scoots east/southeast of southern
New England and Long Island. A few light showers or sprinkles
may form along the western New England higher terrain and
eastern Catskills. High pressure at the surface will move from
southern Quebec to northern Maine and New Brunswick. Partly to
mostly sunny conditions can be expected by the afternoon with some
diurnal cumulus. 925 hPa temps off the latest GFS-FV3 will be
in the +14C to +17C range with some sun highs may be a couple
degrees warmer than Saturday with highs in the mid and upper 70s
below 1000 ft elevation, and mid 60s to lower 70s above 1000
ft.

Sunday night...This could be the coolest night of the stretch
with ideal radiational cooling conditions setting up with
clear/mostly clear skies and calm winds with the sfc high over
northern New England and New Brunswick. We went a little cooler
than a blend of the guidance with widespread 40s across the
region with some 50F readings in the Capital Region and Mid
Hudson River Valley. Some radiational mist/fog will be likely
over the major river valleys.

Mon-Mon night...Pleasant late August weather will continue with
temps running slightly below normal with sfc dewpts in the 40s
and 50s. The sfc high will act as a block with some weak mid
level ridging building in over the region in the wake of the
closed/cutoff low down stream. This blocking set-up should keep
a potential tropical system east of the Carolinas well south and
east of the region as we head into the mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and seasonable weather will continue through Tuesday with
surface high pressure anchored along the Maine coastline and upper
level ridging passing overhead.

Beginning Tuesday night, an upper level trough will deepen and track
eastward across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. This will allow
for an increase in moisture ahead of a frontal passage as southerly
flow ushers in slightly above normal moisture and dew points climb
back into the 60s. Showers will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday
night as the front moves through. Instability looks fairly weak at
this time with the best energy displaced to the north so have
maintained slight chance for thunder at this time. Showers look to
linger into the day on Thursday with the upper trough passage. High
pressure builds back into the region in the wake of the trough.

Another cold front may drop through the region sometime Friday night
into Saturday but models are inconsistent. So have included slight
chance to low end chance pops, especially for areas north of Albany.

Temperatures throughout the long term will be seasonable, with
afternoon highs in the 70s to low 80s each day and overnight lows in
the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through the majority of the forecast
period with high pressure in control of the sensible weather.
Some patchy fog may develop at KGFL/KPSF early this morning but
is expected to quickly lift and burn off shortly after sunrise.
Winds will be out of the north to northeast at less than 10
kts, turning more easterly towards 06Z/Sun.

Outlook...

Sunday Night to Tue night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...Slight
chance of a TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes Region
and southeast Canada today and through the weekend.  It will be
cooler and less humid with partly to mostly sunny conditions.

RH values will lower to minimum values of around 40 to 55
percent this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon, and increase
to 90 to 100 percent tonight with areas of dew formation
likely. Some patchy fog is also possible in the major river
valleys.

Winds will be from the north to northeast at 5 to 10 mph today,
decreasing to 5 mph or less tonight. On Sunday, the winds will
be from the northeast to east at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydro problems are expected over the next 5 to 7
days.

Dry weather is expected this weekend until Tuesday. The next
chance of widespread rainfall will be with a frontal passage on
Wednesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...JLV
AVIATION...JLV
FIRE WEATHER...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...Wasula


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.