Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 170749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
349 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A much cooler and drier air mass will continue to build into
the region today. A disturbance will bring some showers to areas
north of the Capital Region this afternoon, with windy
conditions developing. High pressure will build in for Wednesday
with dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Still plenty of clouds across the northern half of the area
early this morning in a cyclonic flow regime with a large upper
level trough in place. Breezy conditions have developed in the
northwest flow, which will persist through today. Sunshine will
be most prevalent across the southern half of the area, while
mostly cloudy skies should persist over the northern half with
continued cyclonic W-NW flow. An upper level short wave
disturbance embedded within the trough will move eastward across
the region this afternoon. Limited moisture should result in
mainly scattered showers being limited to areas north of Albany.
Even for these areas it will likely be dry much of the time,
with only brief showers expected.

Winds will steadily increase at deeper mixing develops during
the late morning through the rest of the daylight hours.
Forecast soundings continue to show mixing potential to ~800-750
mb, with max gusts reaching the 30-40 mph range. Strongest
gusts will be in areas where channeling is favored in W-NW flow
such as the Mohawk Valley along with favored western facing
slopes in the higher terrain.

Temperatures will be much cooler today (5-10 degrees below
normal), with highs in the 50s across the higher terrain to
mainly mid/upper 60s in valley locations. The persistent breeze
will make it feel cooler. Also, humidity levels will be
noticeably lower than recent days with dewpoints in the mid 30s
to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few brief/light showers may linger into this evening north of
Albany, as the upper level disturbance moves east into New
England. Clearing is then expected overnight as the flow regime
becomes more neutral. A west-northwest breeze will persist
tonight with a decent pressure gradient remaining. So despite an
anomalously cool air mass in place (850 mb temp anomalies of -1
to -2 STDEV), the breeze should prevent temperatures from
dropping to frosty levels. It will be cool though, with lows
mainly in the mid/upper 30s in the mountains to lower/mid 40s in
valleys.

On Wednesday, surface high pressure gradually builds eastward
into our region with a zonal W-NW flow aloft. This will result
in dry conditions and mostly sunny skies. Some high level clouds
will drift in later in the day, but should just filter the
sunshine. Temperatures will be somewhat warmer, but still
slightly below normal with highs ranging from the lower 60s to
around 70. Humidity levels will remain low, with dewpoints only
in the 20s and 30s. A northwest breeze (10-15 mph) will persist
much of the day, since the surface high won`t be moving overhead
until later in the day. Winds will not be as strong as today
though.

Clouds will increase Wednesday night associated with a weak
disturbance moving through the zonal flow aloft. Will mention
gradually increasing PoPs for showers developing mainly after
midnight associated with some increasing isentropic lift on the
295K surface. Due to the increasing clouds and showers around,
temperatures will not be as cool as the previous night with lows
mainly in the 40s to around 50.

Weak isentropic lift continues into Thursday morning, then a
short wave is forecast to track eastward across northern NY/New
England during the day. So there will likely be additional
showers most areas in the morning, with scattered showers mainly
along and north of I-90 during the afternoon. Skies should
generally average mostly cloudy, which will hold temperatures
down. Lowered max temps a few degrees compared to previous
forecasts. Highs should be mainly in the 60s, with 50s in the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Changeable conditions through the long term portion of the
forecast, with fairly progressive mid/upper level pattern across
much of the CONUS.

Behind Thursday`s disturbance, an upper level trough is
expected to dig into the Rockies and northern Plains, allowing
for mid/upper level ridging to build along or off the east
coast. After a mostly clear and relatively cool Thursday night,
with lows mainly in the 40s, a deep southwest flow is expected
to develop Friday into Saturday, potentially allowing for a
quick warming trend. Will have to watch for some
isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms on the leading edge of
this warm southwest flow for Friday/Friday night, particularly
across the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Highs
Friday in the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s, while remaining quite
mild Friday night, with min temps in the upper 50s to lower/mid
60s. Then, a warm to hot day is possible Saturday, as 850
temperatures soar to +17 to +19C. This could allow for max temps
to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s for lower elevations, and
80-85 for higher terrain. Dewpoints may remain somewhat low,
despite the warmth, generally reaching the upper 50s to lower
60s, resulting in maximum heat indices in the lower 90s. This
surge of warmth looks relatively short-lived, as the
aforementioned upper level trough is expected to translate east
Saturday night-Sunday, allowing for a cold front to pass through
the region sometime late Saturday night or Sunday.

Depending on the timing of the front and possible pre-frontal
trough, which remains uncertain, there could be showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday into at least a portion of Sunday,
with some locally strong thunderstorms possible should the front
and/or a pre-frontal trough pass through during peak heating.
Will include chance PoPs for late Saturday afternoon into
Sunday, with the possibility for a prefrontal trough approaching
from the west Saturday evening, followed by the main cold
frontal passage sometime on Sunday.

Max temps on Sunday will be largely dependent on timing of
frontal passage. Current forecast indicates highs in the 60s for
higher terrain, and lower/mid 70s for valleys, with temps
cooling into the 40s for most areas Sunday night, with some 30s
possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks and
southern VT. However, max temps could be significantly warmer in
areas where the frontal passage occurs later in the day Sunday.

Fair and cooler conditions for Monday, with highs mainly in the
60s, and lows Monday night in the 30s and 40s. There could be
patchy frost Monday night across portions of the southwest
Adirondacks, southern VT and the eastern Catskills.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will strengthen over Quebec, while a secondary cold
front passes across the TAF sites this afternoon and evening.

Cigs may occasionally drop to MVFR through 08Z/Tue at KALB and
KPSF, otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected through early
Tuesday afternoon. As a secondary cold front passes through,
scattered showers/sprinkles will be possible at KGFL, KALB and
KPSF between roughly 21Z/Tue-04Z/Wed. There could be a brief
period of MVFR Vsbys/Cigs within any showers. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through Tuesday evening, despite Cigs of
4000-6000 FT AGL.

West to southwest winds will average 8-12 KT, with gusts of
20-25 KT possible through mid morning. Winds will then gradually
veer into the west/northwest, and increase to 10-15 KT with
gusts of 22-28 KT expected this afternoon. West/northwest winds
will then gradually decrease to 8-12 KT with gusts of 20-25 KT
shortly after sunset.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Westerly winds will gust 30 to 40 mph today...

A much cooler and drier air mass will continue to build into
the region today. A disturbance will bring some showers to areas
north of the Capital Region this afternoon, with windy
conditions developing. High pressure will build in for Wednesday
with dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures.

Minimum relative humidity values will be around 35 to 55
percent today, increasing to maximum values of between 70 and 90
percent tonight. RH values will decrease to minimum values of
around 20 to 30 percent on Wednesday.

Winds today will be westerly increasing to 10 to 20 mph with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Winds tonight will remain westerly with
speeds decreasing to 5 to 15 mph. Winds on Wednesday will be
northwest around 10 to 15 mph with some gusts around 20 to 25
mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological issues are expected over the next several days.
Mainly drier, cooler and breezy conditions will occur today
into Wednesday. A few light showers will be possible today for
areas north of Albany.

The next chance of more widespread showers will be Wednesday
night into Thursday. Rainfall amounts look to be
light(0.10"-0.30") and hydrologically insignificant.

Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible during the
upcoming weekend, although timing, extent and rainfall amounts
are unclear at this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV


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