Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 081858
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
258 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be mostly sunny and warm, with an isolated shower or
thunderstorm. High pressure builds in tonight into Sunday with
dry weather and temperatures rising back above normal Sunday
afternoon. An upper level disturbance may bring a shower or
thunderstorm to the northern part of the area Sunday evening.
The heat and humidity increases for Monday into the mid week
along with the chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 258 PM EDT...radar showing some widely isolated showers
over the southern Adirondacks. Cell movement has been almost
west to east. Skies have almost cleared out in valley locations
with sct to bkn cumulus over the high terrain. Still looking for
a modest increase in coverage of showers later today, but
showers/storms still remaining generally isolated. Temperatures
have warmed into the upper 70s in the hills to mid 80s in the
valleys.

For tonight, any lingering showers and storms should die out
before midnight as a narrow high pressure ridge builds in at
the surface and aloft. This ridge will bring mainly fair and
cool weather tonight. With light winds and good radiational
cooling, areas of fog are expected, especially in the river
valleys. Lows tonight from the mid to upper 50s in the hill
towns to the mid 60s in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday morning a ridge of high pressure is right overhead bringing a
far and cool morning, but by afternoon it is forecast to shift south
and east of New England. Sunday afternoon, an upper level shortwave
and associated sfc low pressure is moving from southern Ontario into
southern Quebec. Models show most of the precipitation with this
system north of the Albany Forecast Area, but all have some
precipitation, in the form of scattered showers/storms, push
into the northern third to half of the area by Sunday evening.
Highs on Sunday from the upper 70s in the hills to upper 80s in
the valleys.

Its a quick moving system, so that by 8 AM Monday, upper level and
surface ridging is already building back in. Residual morning clouds
and fog should quickly give way to sunshine. Monday looks fair
and becoming hot as forecast H850 temps rise to +17C to +18C.
Sfc dewpts increase into the 60s to around 70F in a few spots in
the mid Hudson Valley. The combination of the high air temps
/upper 80s to lower 90s/ and dewpts will allow apparent temps or
heat indices to rise into the mid 90s in the mid Hudson Valley.
We may need a Heat Advisory for the mid Hudson Valley on
Monday. Max temps will get into the mid 80s to lower 90s in the
valley areas, and upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mtns.
Some terrain/differential heating pop-up showers/thunderstorms
are possible Monday afternoon.

Monday night, pop-up showers should end in the evening as the
suns heating decreases. Mainly fair and muggy weather is
forecast with lows in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Above normal temperatures will continue through most of the long
term period, with flat upper ridging extending into the region from
the southern U.S.

Tuesday looks to be the peak day for the upcoming heat, as mixed
layer winds are forecast to shift to the southwest and 850 mb
positive temperature anomalies (with actual 850 temps of +17C to +20
C) are forecast to be greatest. Downsloping off the
Catskills/Helderbergs in the SW flow should result in the warmest
temps occurring in the Hudson Valley, especially from the Capital
District southward. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower
70s, maximum heat index values should be in the mid/upper 90s in the
Hudson Valley. Will continue to mention a Heat Advisory may be
needed in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Values may even be approach
or exceed 95 in the Mohawk Valley and lower elevations in southern
VT, so will monitor trends. There is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon to early evening, as a weak
disturbance and surface trough move across the region. Best chances
look to be west of the Hudson Valley. Low temperatures Tuesday night
mainly in the 60s to lower/mid 70s.

While slightly cooler compared to Tuesday, it will still be very
warm and humid on Wednesday as our region will still be under the
influence of upper level ridging extending NW from the western
Atlantic. The main focus for convection will be a slow-moving front
that may become quasi-stationary somewhere across or our area. So
will continue to mention a chance of showers/storms, mainly during
the afternoon to early evening hours. Heat indices could still reach
or exceed 95 in valley areas from Albany south and east. Nighttime
lows mainly in the 60s to lower 70s.

No discernible change in air mass expected for Thursday and Friday,
with the 00Z guidance indicating the aforementioned front to shift
slightly southward, but remaining nearly stationary. Will limit
chance pops to the southern half of the area each day (from the
Mohawk valley/Capital District/southern VT south and east), with
only slight chance to the north. Again, the most favorable times for
convection will be tied to the diurnal heating cycle. Temps expected
to remain above normal, with humid conditions persisting as well.
Heat indices on Thursday could still approach the mid 90s within
portions of the mid Hudson Valley and lower elevations in NW CT.

By next Saturday, there may be some relief as cooler/drier air
builds south and east from Canada. However, the frontal boundary may
still remain nearby to our south, so will keep slight chances for
showers across southern areas. Highs mainly in the lower/mid 80s in
valleys, and 75-80 for higher elevations. Lows Sat night may fall
into the 50s for the Adirondacks, with 60s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z/Sun...VFR conditions remain with fair weather cu around
5000 ft continuing throughout the afternoon before gradually
dissipating this evening. Isolated showers/t-storms will develop
this afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain. Latest guidance
continues to support none impacting any TAF sites so will omit VCSH
with this update.

With a mostly clear sky tonight, patchy low clouds and fog may
develop. Best fog chances will be at KGFL/KPSF with cigs/vsbys
lowering to MVFR or possibly even down to IFR/LIFR. Patchy low
clouds, if any, are more likely at KALB/KPOU, where VFR
conditions should continue. Any fog or low clouds gradually lift
Sunday morning with few-sct fair weather cu developing by
midday.

Wind will be variable at 5 kt or less this afternoon, then go calm
tonight. Wind will then be out of the south to southwest at 4-8 kt
tomorrow.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today will be mostly sunny and warm, with an isolated shower or
thunderstorm. High pressure builds in tonight into Sunday with
dry weather and temperatures rising back above normal Sunday
afternoon. An upper level disturbance may bring a shower or
thunderstorm to the northern part of the area Sunday evening.
The heat and humidity increases for Monday into the mid week
along with the chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The RH values will increase to 90 to 100 percent with areas of
dew and fog formation Sunday morning. The RH values will lower
to 45 to 55 percent Sunday afternoon. The RH values will again
increase to 90 to 100 percent with areas of dew and fog
formation Monday morning.

The winds will be  light and variable in direction at 10 mph or
less today. They will become light to calm tonight, and then
increase from the south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday.
On Sunday night, winds will remain 5 to 10 mph on the hills but
become near calm in valley locations.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrological problems on expected in the ALY Hydro
Service Area /HSA/ the next several days through the end of next
week.

Forecast rainfall across the HSA the next 7 days ranges from
around a tenth of an inch to around an inch and a half.
Rainfall will be variable during this period due to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms, but the highest amounts look to be in
the eastern Catskills. The most widespread threat of showers and
thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday into Thursday with a slow
moving cold front. Localized ponding of water or poor drainage
flooding is possible where thunderstorms produce locally heavy
downpours. No river flooding is forecast.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...Rathbun
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND



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