Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 241035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
635 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A tranquil start to this first week of summer as high pressure
will be transversing the region from west to east. Clouds will
be on the increase as a warm front will be approaching. Showers
and some thunderstorms are expected overnight into Tuesday
morning as the warm front lifts northeastward. Warmer and a bit
more humid conditions into the middle of the week with the
additional threat for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 620 AM EDT, Few to scattered high clouds with sunrise
across the region. Temperatures were mainly into the 50s with
some 40s across the Adirondacks. Upstream cloud coverage will
slowly approach this afternoon. The surface ridge axis and
rising heights aloft will keep today tranquil and near summer-
like across the region. The sky will likely become more
filtered through the afternoon. Before that occurs, high
temperatures today should climb into the lower half of the 80s
for many valley locations to 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, the surface ridge slides east with mid level
anticyclonic flow expected to linger which may delay the onset
of the precipitation. While we did slow down the timing a bit,
expectations are for the upstream warm front to become more
pronounced with theta-e advection increasing overnight. Elevated
showers and some embedded thunderstorms are expected toward
sunrise Tuesday. Showalter values remain at or below 0C with
this warm front as severe weather potential is quite low due to
the elevated nature of the convection. The passage of the warm
front is expected by early afternoon with a noticeable increase
in humidity. Additional short wave upstream and falling heights
warrant the continued chance for afternoon surfaced based
showers and thunderstorms. Overall shear parameters are rather
low so not expected too much organization for the convective
potential through the afternoon hours. Overnight lows mainly
into the 60s and highs Tuesday mainly into the 70s across the
region.

Fairly good model consensus favors a drier forecast Tuesday
night as increasing anticyclonic flow near the surface to reduce
low level convergence and lack of instability and triggers
aloft. So we will reduce PoPs back to slight chance in the
evening hours to dry conditions overnight. There could be some
patchy fog development, especially in areas where rainfall
occurred earlier in the day.

Wednesday into Wednesday night, models diverge a bit with
upstream timing of approaching short wave and convective
response with daytime heating. The NAM leads the way with rather
deep convective elements to evolve along the combination of lake
breezes and weak surface trough. The global models are bit less
pronounced but agree with timing with the upstream short wave.
So we will continue with the previous forecast but increase PoPs
a bit with showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
into the evening hours. SBCAPES of between 1-2K J/Kg and modest
shear parameters of between 20-30kts yet lapse rates remain less
than ideal. SPC keeps the region with a general thunder forecast
at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Our region will be on the northeast fringe of an upper level ridge
as it becomes more amplified through Friday night. As the ridge
becomes more amplified, an upper trough will develop across
southeastern Canada and eventually dig into the northeast CONUS
throughout the weekend.

Thursday and Friday look warm and muggy, but generally rain-free, as
high pressure dominates at the surface and aloft. Temperatures will
heat into the mid 80s (mid 70s in the high terrain) in the valleys
both days with overnight lows in the 60s.

The weather turns more unsettled as we approach the weekend as the
upper trough digs southward. Rain chances will increase as early as
Friday evening and continue into the weekend. Despite models
differences in the strength and movement of the upper trough, it
looks like the best chance for rainfall will be on Saturday as upper
energy and a back door cold front move through the region. Sunday
may also feature showers as the trough axis passes overhead.
Temperatures on Saturday will be in the 70s to low 80s before
cooling off into the mid 60s to mid 70s on Sunday. The mugginess
should also wane as flow turns out of the north Sunday afternoon,
with dew points dropping back into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through most of the TAF period as we
remain under the influence of surface high pressure today. This high
pressure will give way to increasing clouds as a warm front
approaches from the Ohio Valley this evening. Shower chances will
increase from the west after 06Z/Tue and become more widespread just
beyond the forecast period. Flying conditions are expected to become
MVFR by the end of the period.

Winds will generally be light and variable around 6 kts or less
through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday:  Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A tranquil start to this first week of summer as high pressure
will be transversing the region from west to east. Clouds will
be on the increase as a warm front will be approaching. Showers
and some thunderstorms are expected overnight into Tuesday
morning as the warm front lifts northeastward. Warmer and a bit
more humid conditions into the middle of the week with the
additional threat for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather remains in the forecast through at least this evening
as high pressure moves across and east of the region. Showers
and some embedded thunderstorms return tonight and Tuesday as a
low pressure system approaches and moves across the area.
Rainfall amounts of 1/3 to around 1/2 of an inch are expected.
There is a slight chance for thunderstorms which could produce
locally heavy downpours. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected mid week through the weekend.

Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/
web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JLV
AVIATION...JLV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM

www.weather.gov/albany


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