Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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687
FXUS61 KALY 201353
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
953 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region today accompanied by
scattered showers. Drier weather is expected tonight with a
return to spring time temperatures for the start of the school
and work week. This area of high pressure slides off the
northeast coastline Monday night as the next weather system
approaches for Tuesday with the threat for additional showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 945 AM EDT, latest GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery shows
the back edge of the thicker cloud cover just now entering
the southern Adirondacks/Herkimer county. These thicker clouds
are in place across the area, along with scattered showers,
ahead of a surface cold front currently strung out across
northern and western NY this morning. Behind the cold front,
visible imagery and surface obs indicate clearing skies and
breezy northerly winds. So most locations should see some sun by
later today but might not be enough to get temperatures to warm
into the upper 70s. So that being said, refreshed the hourly
temps but kept the high temperature a couple degrees below
latest guidance based on current cloud cover. Also tweaked
hourly pops based on latest radar imagery. Sent updates to NDFD
and web servers.

Prev Disc...As of 630 AM EDT...Cold front was crossing eastern
Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes per regional radar mosaic and
surface observations. Along and ahead of this feature were
widely scattered showers as most of these showers were along and
north of I90 and the Dacks at the present time. As seen in the
H2O layered vapor loop, moisture not too deep as expectations
with frontal passage will continue with mainly scattered PoPs.
As for thunder potential, looks rather low with perhaps a slight
chance well to the south and east of Albany. This too is
suggested by CAMS forecast hi-res reflectivity simulations
today.

Temperatures for several areas continue to rise early this
morning so under considerable cloudiness, temperatures should
continue to moderate with May sun angle. MOS and LAMP/LAV
numbers support up to the mid 70s for Hudson Valley and points
eastward with 60s to the west. Winds will become westerly and
likely increase in momentum with increasing mixing layer and
some funneling down the Mohawk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...In the wake of the frontal passage, combination of
clearing skies from northwest to southeast as high pressure
building in from the central Great Lakes and diminishing winds
should allow for a cool overnight. A few upper 30s are possible
in the southern Dacks in the cold advection regime with mainly
40s elsewhere.

Monday...A nice start to the work and school week as high
pressure remains in place across the region. So we will remain
with a dry forecast under plenty of May sunshine. This should
allow for temperatures to rebound back into the 70s for many
locations to perhaps near 80F for portions of the mid-Hudson
Valley. Upstream we closely monitor deeper convection that is
forecast to develop and track east-northeast.

Monday night...Upstream convection is expected as convective
debris will increase cloud coverage for most of the region
during the night. As for precipitation chances, seems the
deeper moisture profiles will occur from here and points
southward. Temperatures fall back mainly into the 50s.

Tuesday...Fast moving short wave and weak warm advection from
the Ohio Valley will allow for the potential of showers to
return back to the forecast area throughout the day. At this
time, the best potential for showers will be across the southern
2/3rds of the region. QPF values appear rather light with
minimal instability per surface based parcels and elevated
parcels.

Tuesday night...First cold front is forecast to move across the
region. This should also take most of the moisture content hence
falling PoPs during the overnight period under partly cloudy
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An upper level shortwave trough will be sliding eastward across
Quebec and into northern New England for Wednesday into Wednesday
night.   As this occurs, a surface cold front will be crossing the
region from west to east, although this front will be fairly
moisture starved.  Cannot totally rule out a brief shower (mainly
for northern areas) on Wednesday, otherwise, it will be dry with a
mix of sun and clouds and winds switching to the northwest. Temps
should reach the mid 70s for most on Wednesday and fall into the 50s
for Wednesday night, with some 40s across the higher elevations.

With a northwest flow in place both at the surface and aloft, it
will be continued dry for Thursday, and temps will be a few degrees
cooler, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Dry weather should
continue into Friday as surface high pressure remains near the area
with temps a few degrees warmer.

By the weekend, upper level heights will be starting to rise and the
low level flow will be out of the south.  Temps should continue to
be above normal.  It will probably be mainly dry for Saturday,
although low-level moisture will be increasing thanks to the
southerly flow.  Any upper level forcing for showers looks to remain
to the west across the Great Lakes for Saturday, although this could
be closer to the area by Sunday.  There remains some uncertainty to
coverage of showers and thunderstorms, as tropical moisture over the
Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean could eventually come into
play, although this is still very uncertain and unknown at this
time, as this will depend on the track and development of any
tropical or subtropical lows well south of the area. For now, will
just go with slight to low chc POPs for Saturday, and chance to
likely for Sunday, with valley temps mainly in the upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With plenty of lingering low level moisture in place, flying
conditions are currently IFR/LIFR for all TAF sites thanks to
low ceilings of under 1000 ft. Although winds had been calm or
light for much of the night, southerly winds are increasing to
around 10 kts. Over the next few hours, ceilings should start to
improve, initially to MVFR by the mid morning hours and
eventually to VFR by the late morning or early afternoon hours.
As a cold front moves through the area, there could be some
spotty light rain showers or sprinkles but coverage will be too
few to warrant more than just a VCSH at this time.

By afternoon, winds will switch to the NW behind the cold front
and VFR conditions will be in place for all sites with no more
threat for any showers as drier air starts to work into the area.
Winds may gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon, mainly for
KALB/KPSF, through the early evening hours.

Clear skies are expected tonight with light or calm winds for
all sites. With lingering low level moisture in place, some
radiational fog may be possible late at night, mainly for
KPSF/KGFL.

Outlook...

Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will bring a renewed threat of scattered showers
this morning into the afternoon, as a drier air mass will
follow tonight into Monday.

Minimum RH today will average between 50-70 percent. Those
values recover tonight with values at or above 80 percent.

The winds will be gusty west to northwest winds today in the
wake of the cold front will occur at 10-20 mph with gusts around
30 mph at times. The winds will diminish tonight with high
pressure building in.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrological impacts are expected the next 5 days
ending Wednesday.

Total rainfall amounts are expected to be between 0.75 inches
and 1.50 inch through today. Some rises are expected on rivers,
but no flooding is anticipated.

A drier air mass builds later this afternoon through Monday
with the next of chance of rain arriving on Tuesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/JVM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...BGM/Wasula



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