Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 210823

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
423 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

With high pressure over the area, dry weather is
expected today with a mostly sunny sky and a warm afternoon. Clouds
will increase this evening into tonight, as a frontal system
approaches from the southwest.  This storm will bring some rain to
the region for late tonight into Tuesday with cooler temperatures.
Mainly dry and warm weather is expected for Wednesday through Friday
before some showers return for the holiday weekend.


As of 423 AM EDT...Surface observations and IR satellite
imagery shows mostly clear skies over the region, with just some
patchy high cirrus clouds sliding west to east. In areas where
winds have gone calm, some radiational fog has formed
(especially in the Glens Falls area). Surface high pressure is
located just west of the area over the Great Lakes and is slowly
drifting eastward towards the area.

Any fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise, as the strong
May sunshine will promote mixing within the boundary layer.
Mostly sunny skies are expected through most of the day, as the
surface high pressure nearby shifts towards upstate New York by
this afternoon.

Highs should reach the mid 70s for valley area today, with upper
60s to low 70s across the hills and mountains.


As high pressure starts to depart off to the east by this
evening, some clouds will start to increase from west to east
for the first half of tonight. Surface low pressure will be
located over the lower Ohio River Valley/Midwest and will be
shifting northeast towards the eastern Great Lakes and western
New York by Tuesday morning.

As the storm`s warm front lifts northeast, isentropic lift/warm
air advection will allow for an area of steady rainfall to move
towards the area from western/central New York and northern
Pennsylvania for late tonight. Based off the latest 06z
HRRRX & 00z NAM, rainfall doesn`t look to reach our western
areas until around sunrise Tuesday. Lows will mainly be in the
upper 40s to mid 50s.

As the warm front lifts across the area, have gone with likely
POPs over much of the area for about mid morning through mid
afternoon, as this looks to be when forcing will be best over
the region. By late in the day, precip will start to become a
little more spotty, but southern and eastern areas will continue
to see some additional showers into Tuesday evening as the low
pressure area slides by to the south. Highs on Tuesday only
look to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s thanks to the clouds and

During the day Wednesday, a cold front will be moving across
the area as an upper level shortwave trough shifts from Quebec
towards northern New England. With little moisture available,
not really expecting any more than just a stray shower across
northern areas with this front. Otherwise, expect a partly to
mostly sunny sky with highs in the 70s.


We begin the long term on a rather tranquil and dry note before a
notable pattern shift toward more moisture for the holiday weekend.

As mentioned in the previous excellent discussion, still expecting
an upper level shortwave trough to slide southeast across New
England on Wednesday night. This will allow for a surface cold front
to slide through the region from generally north to south, although
this front will be fairly moisture starved and mainly characterized
by a wind shift and dewpoint change. Still cannot totally rule out a
few showers so included a slight chance on Wednesday. Outside of a
slight chance for showers mainly to the north of the area and into
the terrain, the night should be mostly dry with Wednesday night
temperatures falling into the low 50s, with upper 40s in the high
terrain. Thursday afternoon highs reaching the mid 70s for valley
locations and 60s elsewhere.

Dry weather should continue into Friday as surface high pressure
slides across and remains near the area with temps a few degrees
warmer (around 80 degrees for the Hudson River Valley).

High pressure will slide east of the region by the holiday weekend,
putting our local region into a south to southwest flow regime. This
will increase low level moisture and bring a return of rain chances
during Memorial day weekend as a northern stream upper level
shortwave approaches and eventually crosses the region. Saturday,
depending on where frontal boundaries eventually set up and move, we
will expand the PoPs a bit for the chance of convection. However,
the best forcing with the trough remains further north and west of
the local area. The rain chances appear to increase by Sunday-Sunday
night, with a diminishing trend into Memorial Day Monday. There is
also potential for a tropical moisture connection with this
rainfall, but remains fairly uncertain at this time how these
features will interact. Afternoon highs will gradually cool
throughout the holiday weekend, with highs on Saturday in the upper
70s and overnight lows near 60 degrees.


While most of the time conditions will be VFR, the potential for
MVFR/IFR conditions will exist at KGFL and KPSF.  As seen in both
observations and enhanced GOES-16 fog imagery, some stratus and/or
fog may obstruct an other ideal aviation flight conditions the
remainder of the overnight period.  Otherwise, mainly high thin
scattered clouds are expected through the TAF forecast cycle ending
06Z Tuesday.

Winds will be less than 5 kts overnight. Winds on Monday will
generally be from the west-northwest around 5-10 kt.


Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.


With high pressure overhead, a mostly sunny sky will allow for
RH values to fall to near 30 percent this afternoon with west
winds of 5 to 10 mph.

Clouds will increase this evening into tonight, and RH values
will rise for tonight into Tuesday, with some rain expected
across the region. Most areas will see at least a quarter of an
inch of rainfall on Tuesday with RH values only falling as low
as 60 percent. Light winds in the morning will increase out of
the south at 5 to 15 mph for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday


No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the week.

With high pressure nearby, dry weather is expected today into
most of tonight. A storm system will bring a period of rainfall
late tonight through Tuesday evening, with basin average
amounts of a quarter to half inch. This rainfall will have
little impact on area rivers and streams, with flows expected to
remain steady over the next few days.

Dry weather is expected to return for Wednesday through Friday.
The next chance for showers and possible thunderstorms will be
over the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.




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