Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
264 FXUS64 KAMA 050348 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1048 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1043 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 -Hot weather to continue although temps will come down a couple of degrees over the weekend. -Heat Advisory might be needed for Palo Duro Canyon Saturday afternoon as expected temperatures should be in the 103-105 degree range. -The daily pattern of afternoon convection will continue Saturday aftenoon but shift to our far northwestern areas on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 Most of the convective activity across the area has diminished however a cluster of storms over sw KS and the northern OK Panhandle are continuing to produce pockets of heavy rain. MRMS showing the heaviest precipitation in sw KS where upwards of 1 to 1.5" of rain is shown just west of Liberal and nearly .5" of rain just north of Hooker OK. Expect this activity to fall apart over the next few hours with the remainder of the overnight being quiet. CAMs showing renewed convective development Saturday afternoon around 20-21Z over portions of the panhandles....and then continuing into the early evening before dissipating. Forecast soundings showing LCL`s near 3000m with nearly 40 degree dewpoint depressions and inverted V profiles....so strong and gusty winds will be possible with these afternoon storms. With weak shear through the depth of the atmosphere new storms will be dependent on outflow collisions but any storm will not be long lived. PWAT`s will be near 1.4" so localized brief heavy rainfall could occur. Even though the weekend will continue to be hot there will be a subtle drop in temperatures of a couple degrees. We will however have to monitor for a Heat Advisory for the Palo Duro Canyon. Temps could be close to advisory criteria there. Over the next 48 hours the center of the upper ridge will remain over the central and southern plains which is why we will see a decrease in precipitation chances starting on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 A large upper trough in the Pacific Northwest will slowly move through the intermountain west by mid week and gradually flatten the large upper ridge over the central CONUS. This should allow slightly cooler temperatures across the region (although it will still be hot). Temperatures will be mainly mid to upper 90s and the favored locations (Borger, Canadian, Boys Ranch) could reach 100-102). There will be another chance of precipitation by mid week but it is a low chance at this time. Until then above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation can be expected. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026 VFR conditions expected through the overnight hours and into the afternoon on Saturday. Winds will be out of the south and southeast at 5-15 kts. DHT will have a period of southwest winds Saturday morning but will become southerly by mid day. Wind speeds will be generally 5-15kt but some increase in the afternoon is expected...especially near DHT and GUY. Will see scattered convection develop again Saturday afternoon so will need to monitor for any TAF adjustments when we have more confidence of storms in closer proximity to the TAF sites. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KP LONG TERM....KP AVIATION...KP