235
FXUS64 KAMA 050537
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1237 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Fire weather conditions continue for the next couple of days. Even
critical fire weather is anticipated in the northwest on Monday.
Conditions remain favorable for fires to spread quickly.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return on Tuesday, but
chances for impactful rainfall increase more so Thursday onward.

The potential for severe thunderstorms late week will continue to
be monitored. There are still many uncertainties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Light and variable winds continue at the surface this morning an
will persist until the afternoon. Breezy, southerly winds will take
over much of the area, barring the far east. High temperatures today
are forecast to range in the 70`s. Elevated fire weather conditions
continue today given our breezy and dry conditions. Tomorrow,
temperatures are not expected to fluctuate much. Highs will still
top out in the 70`s. Southwesterly winds will be strong across the
CWA, ranging from 15-25 mph sustained. Critical fire weather
conditions are expected across the northwest panhandles where wind
speeds will be the strongest. Minimum RH values continue to bottom
out in the teens through the short term period.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Our next weather pattern shift begins at the start of the extended
period. Upper level ridging in the west is replaced by a strong
upper low. This new system will slowly track across the southwest
CONUS through the rest of the week. Most long range guidance also
displays moisture surging from the Gulf of America and into the
plains. The combination of these atmospheric influences will allow
for convection on multiple days this week.

Forecast 1-3 km Theta-E profiles appear modest on Tuesday compared
to days later this week. Aforementioned concerns about PoPs and QPF
hold true for the day. While the global models remain
unenthusiastic, their ensemble members retain PoPs across most of
the area. These factors are definitely dictating higher NBM PoPs;
however, they may be overdone for locations outside the western
combined panhandles. Dry air is still expected to dominate at the
surface, with dewpoints forecast to range in the 30`s through most
of the day and high temperatures will be in the 70`s. Model forecast
soundings show a limited window, if any at all, for mid and upper
level profiles to become saturated and precipitate. Showers or
thunderstorms will need strong forcing to allow rain to reach the
ground; otherwise, virga is the more likely outcome. At that point
in time, the upper level low may be too displaced to influence upper
level forcing. The leading factor for lift appears to be mountain
convection off the high terrain. Storms may struggle to hold
together as the move east, given unfavorable instability anticipated
across the region. It is for these reasons why we suspect the
western panhandles will be best favored for precipitation, while
locations further east may struggle to receive any on Tuesday.

By Thursday, and especially Friday, guidance shows strong signals
for precipitation across the combined panhandles. QPF values this
far out still vary amongst models, but many are suggesting that
favorable rainfall is on the table. For example, yesterday`s 12Z
LREF shows 40-60% probs for the region to at least receive 0.5" of
rain by the end of the week (Event Total QPF), with a lower 10-30%
chance for locations to receive at least 1" or rain by the end of
the week (Event Total QPF). These probabilities are higher for areas
further southeast than for areas further northwest. Chances for
severe storms also cannot be ruled out; however, the mesoscale
details are difficult to resolve this far out in time. Generally,
CAPE profiles and wind shear look to be sufficient daily, with some
days showing higher values than others. Rain chances look to
continue well into next weekend as the upper level low approaches
and potentially moves overhead of the High Plains.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

No major changes were made for the 06Z TAF forecast.

VFR conditions prevail for the next several days. Surface winds
are light and variable tonight. Later this afternoon, breezy
winds return from the southwest.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for TXZ001-002-006.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55