476
FXUS64 KAMA 041109
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
509 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Bands of snow showers are expected to continue through the
  overnight period with all activity looking to taper off by
  Thursday afternoon.

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in place over the Panhandles
  till noon as localized heavy snowfall can be present from these
  snow bands, which can lead to accumulation 1 to 4 inches over
  small areas.

- Drier weather is expected to return for the weekend with
  temperatures looking to warm back into the 50s and 60s by the
  middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

As of late tonight, latest radar has indicated that the upper-
level trough is making its way into the Panhandles with multiple
bands of shower currently moving across the area. The heaviest of
these band is currently shifting southeast out of Dalhart, TX
where local reports have already seen 1 to 2 inches of snowfall
for tonight. Meanwhile to the south, multiple smaller bands have
brought flurries to even a brief period of graupel. Present CAMs
expect this activity to continue to push southeast with a new band
looking to once again set up somewhere in or around the I-40
corridor during the overnight hours. Depending on where this band
ends up an extra 2 to 4 inches of snow could be add to isolated
places across the Southern and Eastern Panhandles overnight. Given
the now possible placement of this higher snowfall rate and the
still ongoing snow in our north, we have decided to expand the
Winter Weather Advisory to all counties through noon Thursday. By
this time most models are in agreement that all snowfall will have
pushed eastward out of the Panhandles with the exiting trough.
Regardless this delayed exit will keep temperatures on the colder
side for Thursday, with afternoon highs only reaching into the 30s
to low 40s at best. By Friday, model agreement sees the Panhandles
much drier as upper-level flow shifts more northwesterly.
Temperatures for the day will also be much warmer with afternoon
highs closer to the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Model agreement looks to see closed upper-level low settle over
Hudson Bay in Canada, which in turn will set up northwesterly
upper-level flow for the Panhandles as we move into the weekend.
This flow alongside weak ridging does look to put an end to the
Panhandles chances of active weather, with most ensembles keeping
precipitation chances less than 10% through the middle of next
week. These drier conditions will also prompt a bit of a warm up
for the Panhandles with afternoon highs this weekend quickly
returning to the mid to upper 50s. Meanwhile, next week could see
high temperatures back into the 60s should this dry trend
continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 414 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

A winter weather system continues to impact the panhandles this
morning. This is causing a low level cloud deck of LIFR or worse
conditions at all terminals. KGUY has seen some transient holes
within this deck but these do not signal any improved conditions
at this time. This low level cloud deck will remain in place until
around noon when it will most likely lift and break up. During
the lifting and breaking up phase MVFR conditions can be expected
for all terminals. Then in the afternoon conditions improve to VFR
as the cloud deck dissipates. For KAMA during the mid morning
hours there is a low to moderate chance for light to moderate snow
showers that can cause MVFR to IFR reduced visibilities.
Otherwise winds will be be mainly weak from the SW through today.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...98