979
FXUS64 KAMA 020559
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Another afternoon and evening of active weather remains on tap for
the panhandles. This will take the form of another trough passing
across the panhandles during this time. Plenty of moisture and
instability will fuel the development of rain showers and
thunderstorms. This is already occurring the high terrain of NM
and CO which will push east into the panhandles with the passage
of the trough. The question is the coverage of the rain showers
and thunderstorms as the atmosphere was worked over by previous
rain showers and thunderstorms last night. This lowers the
confidence that rain showers and thunderstorms will occur in the
southern TX panhandle. For the northern TX panhandle and OK
panhandles it is more likely that rain showers and thunderstorms
will occur. The dynamics are such that a few strong to severe
thunderstorms may occur with damaging winds followed by large hail
being the main threats. The tornado threat is very low as the
environment is not supportive for their formation. Additional
high rainfall rates may occur with the thunderstorms with a low
chance for flash flooding. Given what was seen in the last few
days the most likely mode for the severe weather will be liner
squall lines with strong outflows well ahead of the actually
thunderstorms. The threat of rain showers and thunderstorms will
likely persist into the early morning of Sunday in the eastern
panhandles before they finally depart to the S and E out of the
panhandles.

Sunday will see the moisture shift eastward as dry air begins to
push back in to the panhandles. As this occurs mid level warming
will start to form a strong cap over the panhandles. These
combined will diminish the chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms. That being said with a dry line setting up in the
central panhandles and the cap still forming some rain showers and
thunderstorms will likely from during the afternoon and evening
hours. The instability and dynamics will still allow for a strong
to severe thunderstorms with the main threat remaining damaging
winds and large hail. The more isolated nature of these storms
due to the cap may in fact aid in making storms stronger as they
wont have competition for moisture or instability. Any storm that
does manage to form will move eastward across the panhandles
leaving by the late evening. Temperatures will be on the rise as
southerly winds will bring warmer air to the panhandles. Highs are
expected to return to the 90s for much if not all the panhandles
on Sunday.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Heat always finds its way back home to the Panhandles, and the
beginning of next week will certainly start to feel like summer. A
very broad, weak trough will pass overhead Monday, gradually
scouring out moisture from the area. Warming 850mb temps and
clearing skies will aid in strong heating through the day, with
highs in the 90s across the forecast area. We can`t even rule out
a few locations in the south hitting 100 degrees Monday
afternoon. Tuesday could be even hotter in some spots as upper
level ridging builds in. However, models depict a weak cold front
progged to push south early Tuesday morning-afternoon, bringing
northeast winds and minor cold air advection in its wake. Will go
ahead and keep NBM highs in the forecast for now, but highs may be
a few degrees cooler in the northern Panhandles. To the south is
where highest probabilities will exist for temperatures to reach
or exceed 100 degrees, possibly even reaching heat advisory
criteria for Palo Duro Canyon. Overall, plump ridging takes over
midweek, keeping highs at least in the low to mid 90s Tue-Thu.

Ensembles are still out of agreement and chances are rather low,
but if ridging can be eroded towards the end of the week, another
short stretch of active weather may return into the weekend. Even
potentially as early as Thursday, when moisture may return to the
eastern Panhandles and a subtle perturbation may round the ridge.
This has only about a 10-20% chance of occurring though, as the
overall synoptic pattern remains unfavorable. Guidance agrees
better chances exist Fri-Sat when the ridge has a slightly better
opportunity to decay and better moisture return can take place.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

For the 06Z TAFs, any remaining showers and thunderstorms should
stay east of the terminal sites early this morning while continuing
to track further away from the area and diminish. It is possible
additional showers and thunderstorms may develop late Sunday
afternoon and evening across parts of the OK and TX Panhandles.
However, if storms were to develop, coverage may end up more
isolated in nature, which lends to low forecaster confidence and
precludes mentioning thunderstorms for this issuance.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  95  62  99 /  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  63  94  63  96 /  20  10  10  10
Boise City OK              57  91  58  92 /  10  10   0  10
Borger TX                  65  98  64 101 /  10   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              61  97  60 100 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  62  96  59  99 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               63  94  62  99 /  20  10  10  10
Dalhart TX                 57  93  56  96 /  10  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  60  93  60  94 /  10  10   0  10
Hereford TX                62  98  59 100 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                65  94  65  97 /  20  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   64  94  64  98 /  20   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                64  95  64  99 /  20  10  10  10
Wellington TX              65  96  64 102 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...02