302
FXUS64 KAMA 101843
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
143 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Thunderstorm chances (35-50%) across the southern and southwestern
  Texas Panhandle this afternoon/evening.

- 100+ degree temperatures return to the Panhandles this weekend,
  with the highest confidence in the southeast.

- A pattern shift next week could bring much needed rain and
  breaks in temperatures to portions of the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Early morning convection in the eastern and southeastern CWA has
dissapated. Northerly winds behind the southerly moving surface
boundary are expected to turn easterly and then return to
southerly/southeasterly flow. Clouds clearing behind the boundary and
daytime heating throughout the day, as well as surface winds
turning from E to S and transporting dewpoints of 60+ degrees into
the southern Panhandle will allow the thermodynamic environment
across the southern CWA to recover throughout the afternoon. This
will promote moderate instability, with MLCAPE values of 1200-2000
J/kg across the southern TX Panhandle. An upper-level shortwave
trough across the Panhandle will provide the forcing for the
second round of thunderstorms today, as the positioning is
currently favored to initiate over the southcentral Texas
Panhandle. Positive vorticity associated with the shortwave, as
well as a recovering airmass, and bulk shear values of 25-30 kts
creeping into the southern Panhandle could align to produce severe
thunderstorms. Upper level support and bulk shear could account
for some supercellular development, before upscale growth, likely
into clusters. Therefore, the chance for large hail and damaging
wind gusts can not be ruled out for this evenings round of
thunderstorms. The current uncertainty still lies in the recovery
of the airmass after the boundary passage last night/this morning,
as well as how outflow boundaries will affect the spatial
coverage of thunderstorms.

As we head into the weekend, the upper-level high pressure center
that we are currently on the eastern periphery of flattens out and
expands east. This will push our current weather pattern east and
place the Panhandles directly underneath the upper-level high
pressure center. This will allow temperatures to build, and cause
PoP chances to decrease CWA-wide. On Saturday, 100 degree
temperatures are expected to return across the southeastern half of
the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

On Sunday, upper-level high pressure finds itself in the
southeastern US, as a synoptic-scale upper-level trough extending
from Canada to the four-corners region makes its way east from the
Pacific. While Sunday will likely remain hot and dry, this pattern
shift will place the Panhandles in SW upper-level flow, allowing for
a more sustained and larger scale weather pattern to set up through
the beginning of next week. Sustained SW flow over the Rockies will
allow for repeated lee-side troughing and upper-level support
throughout next week. While the exact scope of this weather event is
uncertain, widespread daily PoP chances Monday-Wednesday are on the
table. As we near the end of the forecast period, the end of next
week hints at the possibility of an upper-level low forming over the
southern plains landing the Panhandles in NW upper-level flow, which
could allow for PoP chances to extend into the later half of the
week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the 18Z TAF period.
Winds will remain light, predominantly out of the E before turning
more from the S later today. A PROB30 has been added at KAMA from
23Z to 03Z due to thunderstorm potential this afternoon/evening,
however, spatial coverage of thunderstorms is still uncertain. No
effects from thunderstorms expected at KDHT or KGUY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23