213
FXUS64 KAMA 211924
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
224 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- A prolonged heat wave is building through the week with major to
  extreme heat risk anticipated for much of the area by the end of
  the week.

- An increase in thunderstorm coverage expected Thursday night
  into Friday. Main threats from storms will be lighting strikes
  and gusty winds. Locally heavy downpours could lead to very
  localized minor flooding mainly Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Hot temperatures will be the main story. A heat advisory remains
in effect for roughly the eastern half of the Panhandles into the
evening hours. Confidence is not high we will reach heat advisory
levels except in the typical hot spots on Wednesday. A weak
backdoor boundary in the east is expected to hold down
temperatures there slightly from todays readings, but model
consensus on this is not 100%, so we will have confined a heat
advisory for tomorrow to PDC although we have noted the canyon
has struggled more than normal to reach higher readings likely due
to the 2+ inch rainfall which was isolated to that region last
weekend. We may need to expand the Heat Advisory to include the
other hotspot of Moore,Hutchinson COs and possibly Collingsworth
where some higher probabilities of 105 degree readings exist
(30-70%).

Can`t rule out a very isolated afternoon/evening shower/storm
mainly across the west this aftn and evening associated with
slightly better H7 moist axis and weak west moving disturbance,
but CAMs have been trending less and less with this potential and
chances or rain have decreased below 10 percent. A couple daytime
heating showers or storms are expected on Wednesday mainly north
of I-40 given decent H7 moisture and a weak backdoor front that
will stall across the eastern Panhandles. The far southern extent
of storms associated with a disturbance moving east from CO to KS
may also trigger a shower or storm in the evening across the OK
Panhandle Thursday as well. That all said, chances of rain with
this activity are only around 10 percent at best. Any convection
that develops will be very CAPE limited given drier SFC conditions
and warm mid level temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The heat gets cranked up a little more on Thursday and and heat
advisory will likely be required for much of the Panhandles. The
hottest readings are expected across the north-central Panhandles
from just north of Amarillo to Borger, Dumas, Stratford, Perryton
and Guymon and there is a 40-80% probability of seeing highs
greater than 104 in those areas. The other area of higher
temperatures with similar probabilities is in PDC and ESE from
there to Wellington and south from there.

There have been some subtle changes in models handling of the H5
high center late this week that have implications of the forecast
starting Thursday night. GFS, ECMWF, GEM and NAM all track the H5
center a bit further south as it retrogrades west and they agree
on a little more aggressive west movement than indicated a few
days ago. This isn`t going to save us from the heat, but it opens
the door for dirty ridge roller s/wvs to work from CO ESE across
the region late Thu and Fri. Given this and strong H7 theta-e
ridging associated with monsoon plume, the southern edge of
scattered storms moving out of CO into KS are expected to impact
the far NW Panhandles Thu evening. There actually is some modest
wind shear noted in models, but mid level temperatures are
extremely warm (-2 to -3 deg C). This will limit CAPE, but
certainly not DCAPE which will be very high. This suggests strong
wind gusts, lightning and heavy downpours are the thunderstorms
hazards of concern with this activity.

6Z models started a trend of bringing the hybrid outflow/frontal
boundary associated with this activity much further south and
initiate storms along that boundary anywhere from the central
Panhandles to the far southern Panhandles late Friday afternoon.
This of course will bring uncertainty to temperature forecast as
well on Friday, but it will get plenty hot before storms fire late
in the afternoon. For not POPs are limited to 20 percent mainly
due to uncertainties wrt boundary location, but these may increase
into the SCT category once boundary position is better known.

After retrograding west, the high is forecast to build east again
over the NRN Panhandles and/or SW KS over the weekend. This suggest
more heat and less storm chances heading into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

No aviation concerns the next 24-30 hours. VFR will prevail and
chances of afternoon/evening storms remains extremely low at this
time.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010-
     013>015-018>020-317.

     Heat Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     TXZ317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM..MJG
LONG TERM....MJG
AVIATION...MJG