497
FXUS64 KAMA 242332
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
632 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Flood watch continues over the northwestern portion of the CWA. 24
  hour rainfall totals have been 2-4" with 88D storm total estimates
  over 6" between Texline and Dalhart.

- Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening
  in mainly the central and eastern regions. Very heavy rain fall
  rates could lead to localized flash flooding. In addition a low
  end potential for severe weather (mainly wind) is possible as
  well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

An area of moderate rain is falling at mid day over the central TX
panhandle. This is more of a beneficial rain as the rates are not
sufficient for flash flooding. Visible satellite imagery through 17Z
is showing cloudiness associated the rain over the western half of
the TX panhandle while areas to the east are in the sunshine. This
insolation is destabilizating this moist tropical air mass. So
despite poor lapse rates and weak shear...forcing from differential
heating and outflows will lead to scattered thunderstorm development
over the eastern half of the panhandle this afternoon into this
evening. Good moisture convergence noted along the southern edge of
the precip shield eastward towards the CDS area....and suspect this
will be the likely area for the first development in the next 1-3
hours. Actually just looking at the latest radar image we are seeing
some development already occuring in Hall County TX (just west of
CDS). Latest water vapor imagery continues to show a fetch of
tropical air being advected north-northeast into west TX while a
shortwave trough lifts northeast to provide additional forcing
across the area. The rainfall rates from these storms will be
sufficient to cause some flash flooding as PWAT`s in the eastern
panhandle is 1.4 to almost 1.8"...which is 95% or better for this
time of year. While there is a low end threat for severe winds this
evening the main concern will be the heavy rain and potential for
flash flooding. Additonal storms will likely form overnight across
portions of the central panhandle bringing more rain to the area. On
Friday scattered storms are likely to form again in the afternoon
over the area with heavy rain once again possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The shortwave trough coming out of the southwest U.S will break down
the high pressure ridge in east Texas over the weekend..and the
multi day heavy rain event will be coming to an end. As this occurs
we should see temperatures warm about 10 degrees over the weekend
into the upper 80s as we begin to dry out. SPC does have a Day 3
Marginal Risk over our eastern areas but this is a low probability
situation at this time. Will continue to monitor trends for
Saturday. In the extended models still showing a trough digging
into the southwest US. Differences exist between the ECMWF and
GFS for next week. The ECMWF wants to pick up the remnants of the
hurricane and bring the moisture across Texas while the GFS shows
the trough missing the hurricane and it slowly wanders in the east
Pacific. In any case cooler temperatures are expected with highs
dropping back into the 70s to around 80 in the early to middle
portion of next week. Will continue to monitor trends over the
next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to start the 00Z TAF period at all TAF
sites. Between 06-12, some MVFR cigs may move into all TAF sites,
with cigs going between MVFR/VFR through 17-18Z before VFR cigs
return and continue through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds
will be out of the south-southwest at 5-15 kts, with higher gusts
at times.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ001-002-006.

OK...Flood Watch through Friday morning for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM....54
AVIATION...29