802
FXUS64 KAMA 131135
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
635 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

 - Critical fire weather risk for the eastern panhandles with
   elevated fire concerns elsewhere today.

 - Heat concerns will continue today for the eastern Panhandles
   and Palo Duro Canyon.

 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the central to eastern
   Panhandles today. There is a low risk for severe storms with
   the primary concern being strong damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

IR satellite imagery this evening along with evening upper air
analysis showing the mid level high pressure over the eastern Gulf
extending back to the northwest into portions of the southern
plains. At the surface a 995mb low pressure was located just
southeast of PUB with a well defined frontal boundary across I-70
in KS and a surface trough extending southward into far eastern
New Mexico. 850Mb temps this evening were the hottest from the
northern TX Panhandle into southeast CO with 850 temps of 32-34C.
A couple of small isolated showers and tstms developed in the
heat of the day over west TX and out of one of the small showers
there was a report of 60mph winds....indicative of this inverted V
environment with 40-50 deg dwpt depressions over west TX this
evening.

With slightly lower mid level heights on Thursday sct tstms are a
possibility in the afternoon as convective temps are reached. CAMS
are showing tstms forming by mid aftn from the far eastern
panhandles back to the southwest into west TX. With a similar
environment to Wednesday, there could be isolated strong to severe
wind gusts. Another concern would be with the dry conditions that
lightning could start a fire in our eastern Panhandles, which has
been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Daily precipitation chances
will primarily be in the northwestern portion of our area through
the weekend with medium chances 40-50% in Cimarron county and
Dallam County. High temperatures will continue to be in the upper
90s to lower 100s through the weekend although they will be a few
degrees cooler than what they were on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Precipitation chances will begin to wane by the end of the weekend
in the northwest as the upper high pressure builds back into the
southern plains. This will allow temps to start to slowly rise again
with many areas getting back to around 100 or even the low 100s. The
evening GFS model is wanting to show a shortwave trough from the
Pacific Northwest entering the plains by mid to late week which may
lead to an increase in pcpn chances and somewhat cooler temps. Will
see if this trend continues in future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Winds will be breezy out of the southwest today, sustained at
15-20 kts with occasional gusts up to 30 kts. Scattered storms are
expected across the northern and eastern Panhandles this afternoon
and evening, but only have low probabilities to impact any
terminals. KGUY still has relatively higher confidence, so a
PROB30 group has been maintained for this evening. Any storms
could have rogue wind gusts over 40 kts. We will then watch for
winds to shift behind a boundary towards the end of the period
into Friday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast at all
sites over the next 24 hrs.

Harrel

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Given the prolonged drought over the Panhandles due to limited
rainfall and extensive heat on a daily basis for nearly a month
straight, we find the ERC`s across the Panhandles are pretty much
above the 90th percentile, and in several areas we are actually
exceeding the climatological maximum for this time of year.  Given
that setup and winds in the 15 to 20 mph range, we will continue the
elevated Fire Weather conditions for the entire Panhandles.  The
difference for today is that we are a little closer to that 20 mph
wind which "could" bump that RFTI up from a 1-2, to a 3-4 which
would certainly support an RFW.  An added factor to our conditions
is the medium chance 30-40% of storms this afternoon and evening.
Some of these storms may be very small in nature with a lot of
lightning outside of the main thunderstorm core, this could result
in abundant dry lightning strikes over an area that has fuels that
are extremely dry, leading to the potential for fires to start from
lightning.  These storms could also have very erratic strong
damaging wind gusts too, and that would be very concerning near any
fires.  As we move later into the forecast period we`ll have
localized elevated Fire Weather just due to the nature of how dry
it`s been.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010-
     014-015-019-020-317.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ004-005-009-010-014-015-018>020.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM....KP
AVIATION...38