802
FXUS64 KAMA 141116
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
616 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across the
north central TX Panhandle and the central OK Panhandle early this
morning. This activity has formed behind outflow boundaries from
storms in CO/KS from earlier this morning. Storm cores have
attempted to pulse up and any cores that do may have small hail
and strong wind gusts. Severe storms are not expected this morning
and the activity should dissipate over the next few hours

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

- Hot temperatures are expected through Tuesday with highs
  potentially approaching Heat Advisory criteria on Monday and
  Tuesday.

- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today and Saturday with
  a very low chance at becoming severe with damaging winds and
  marginally severe hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High pressure remains in place over the High Plains through this
weekend. This should lead to stagnant temperatures that will be
above average with highs in the 90s to just over the triple digit
mark for some locations, moreso on Sunday than today. For today,
cloud cover from this morning should diminish and clear skies are
forecast for most of the daytime hours. A very weak disturbance
combined with daytime heating approaching convective temperatures
may generate some isolated thunderstorms once again late this
afternoon into the evening. CAPE and DCAPE values will be
sufficient to have at least a marginal chance for severe storms.
However, similar to yesterday, very low wind shear values as well
as the overall steering flow throughout the column will very
likely limit storm potential to a few isolated storms at best.
Storm cores could become strong enough to be marginally severe,
but will struggle to maintain themselves in the very weakly
sheared environment so downburst winds will be the primary hazard
should any storms form this evening across the CWA.

Sunday looks to be pretty much a repeat of today, with the
exception being the high temperatures should be a few degrees
warmer. Instead of mostly mid 90s highs, most areas will probably
hit the upper 90s and some of the known hot spots could easily
reach the 100 degree mark on Sunday. Will have to keep a close eye
on how much warmer Palo Duro Canyon is than Amarillo, as the
canyon floor could approach Heat Advisory criteria late this
weekend as floor already hit the 100 degree mark yesterday. For
the thunderstorm side of things, isolated storms will once again
be possible on Sunday evening as another very weak disturbance
moves over the region. Cannot rule out that any storms become
marginally severe once again with the primary risk continuing to
be downburst winds as storm cores will continue to struggle to
maintain their strength.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

High pressure aloft should remain over the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles through Tuesday before being suppressed by a quick moving
trough moving across the central CONUS. With the ridge remaining in
place over the region, temperatures on Monday and Tuesday should be
the hottest of the upcoming week, with highs in the upper 90s and
potentially up to 105 for some areas. Tuesday does look to be the
hottest day, with the entire CWA having at least a 30 percent chance
at reaching the triple digit mark according to the latest
probabilistic guidance from the 14/01z NBM. The potential for rain
on either of these days appears low at this point, but there are
some outlier solutions that do have some shower/thunderstorm
potential during this time frame.

A front is expected to push over the Panhandles Tuesday night as the
trough moves east of the forecast area. Thunderstorms may be able to
form along or behind the front as it pushes south on Tuesday night
across the eastern/northeastern Panhandles. As with any thunderstorm
activity this time of year, cannot rule out a strong to severe storm
should any storms form during this time frame. Highs on Wednesday
should be near average in the wake of the frontal passage on Tuesday
night. The broad ridging pattern with high pressure aloft looks to
return for the middle to later half of next week which would lead
to temperatures around or above average and this type of pattern
will not be the most favorable for thunderstorm development across
the southern High Plains.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions are forecast at the TAF sites. Isolated
showers/storms will move away and dissipate near KGUY over the
next hour or so. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is
possible after 00z, but confidence in storms getting close to any
terminal is too low. Winds will become southerly at all sites with
sustained winds around 10-15 kts with occasional higher gusts. The
wind direction or speed may become sporadic due to any
thunderstorms or outflow boundaries if storms do form this
evening.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05