747
FXUS64 KAMA 150439
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1039 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

-After warm temperatures by Thursday and Friday, temperatures
 will rapidly drop through the weekend.

-High temperatures may stay below freezing for all of the
 Panhandles for Sunday and Monday.

-Cold Weather headlines for Sunday and Monday may be needed with
 sub zero wind chills in the forecast.

-Light snow Saturday night and more widespread snow Monday into
 Monday night is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

An elongated H500 positive tilted trough should slowly traverse
the southern High Plains through tomorrow night. Further aloft
with large scale subsidence with the Panhandles region in the
left entrance region of the main jet streak, this should result in
dry conditions continuing throughout the short term forecast
period. High temperatures tomorrow will remain slightly below
average for this time of year, especially in areas where snow melt
is still ongoing. Highs tomorrow will range from the mid and
upper 40s in the west to lower 50s in the east.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Later in the week, latest 14/12Z model and numerical data shows a
perturbation moving easts across New Mexico and then into the
Texas South Plains by Friday night. With the sfc-H500 SW flow with
increasing gradient by Friday with the disturbance moving through,
adiabatic compression from the NM high terrain in the
aforementioned flow will aid in warm temperatures for mid January.
Highs on Thursday and Friday will be above average with even
several locations in the Texas Panhandle reaching the lower and
mid 60s with dry conditions.

Latest trends shows high temperatures on Friday to Sunday may drop
by around 40 degrees or so.

This will be due to an arctic front moving south across the
Plains. Initial surge of H850-700 cold airmass will occur
Saturday into Sunday morning, followed by an even colder surge
Sunday night into Monday. H850 values bottom out to -17C to -20C
by Monday night. This will result in our coldest temperatures so
far this Winter season. In particular, Cold Weather headlines
maybe needed staring Sunday and continuing into Monday where
apparent temperatures of at least -5F are expected CWA wide.
After highs in the 60s in some locations in the Texas Panhandle
on Friday, it could be widespread 30s by Saturday and 20s by
Sunday after the first surge of strong CAA enters the region. With
this first surge of cold air with mid level temperature
dichotomy, dependent on the moisture content, we may see some
light snow for the NW Panhandles, with light accumulations
possible. A more interesting set up may occur for Monday afternoon
into Tuesday morning, given certain lift and moisture parameters
can align. More details to come on that set up as we get closer to
early next week.

Starting Sunday evening through Monday night, Cold Weather
headlines may be needed to illustrate the very cold airmass where
even apparent temperatures Sunday and especially Monday night may
get as low as -20F in some areas, based off the latest numerical
data outputs. High temperatures on Monday will also struggle to
get out of the teens in most locations. Will update numerical
trends closely as we approach early next week which looks to be a
very cold start to the week with impacts due to the cold
temperatures being probable.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will be light and variable shifting more westerly
around 5 to 10kts after 18z. Skies mostly clear for the TAF
period.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                21  48  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  19  50  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              17  48  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  21  51  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              19  50  22  59 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  19  49  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               23  51  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 16  49  19  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  17  50  20  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                19  49  21  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                21  49  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   21  48  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                22  53  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              23  52  26  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...89