413
FXUS64 KAMA 261129
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

 -Heavy rain bring a low chance for localized flooding in portions
  of the Panhandles today.

 -Dry conditions return mid week before our next rain chances
  return at the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A weather system continues to slowly move across the Great Plains
today keeping a fetch of moisture over the panhandles. This
moisture remains high for this time of year allowing any rain
shower or thunderstorm to produce heavy rainfall. Currently the
weather system is causing rain showers and thunderstorms across
large swaths of the panhandles. However, the main focus of these
rain showers and thunderstorms remains the northwest half of the
panhandles. This round of rain showers and thunderstorms continues
to have a low chance to cause flash flooding in the northwestern
panhandles. This is most prominent for areas that have already
been impacted by previous rain showers and thunderstorms. The
flooding can be harder to detect during the early morning hours as
it will still be dark outside. This round of rain showers and
thunderstorms will wane going into the mid to late morning hours.
Then during the early afternoon the next round of rain showers and
thunderstorms will kick off. These will be more focused towards
the central and eastern panhandles as the weather systems shifts
to the east. The main threat will remain flooding caused by heavy
rainfall. This is more likely in the central panhandles where
rainfall has already occurred on Sunday. It is less likely in the
eastern panhandles which have seen overall lower amounts of rain
from this weather system. This round of rain showers and
thunderstorms will continue to move eastward and either depart or
dissipate by the morning hours of Tuesday. This will begin a brief
period of dry weather for the panhandles as the pattern slowly
shifts to zonal then a dry southwest flow. Temperatures for today
will remain cool with the passage of the weather system. Once we
dry out on Tuesday the temperatures will warm up once again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

The dry southwest flow remains over the panhandles on Wednesday
keeping the panhandles weather calm. This will change come
Thursday as a weather system deepens across the western portions
of CONUS. This will change the flow enough to allow a moisture
fetch to move back across the southern plains. A passing small
weather system within the upper level flow in addition to jet
energy will most likely provide lift across the panhandles late
Thursday through Saturday. This in turn will allow the formation
of rain showers and thunderstorms during this time. This system
then moves off to the east on Sunday which would more likely than
not will taper down the chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

As of this morning, present radar has seen most showers and
thunderstorms move off the terminals with only KAMA seeing some
potential for more activity to move in from the south. However,
this should start to clear by around 14 UTC with all terminals
getting a brief break from the activity. Present CAMs have been a
little back and forth on how brief this will break will with most
agreeing to another round of showers sometime by this early
evening. Regardless, all terminals are likely to keep seeing
their CIGs bounce between MVFR and VFR conditions through the
current package with storm chances later today bringing a repeat
of conditions from yesterday.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...11