Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
369 FXUS64 KAMA 120524 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1124 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1116 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 - Rain is likely from Friday afternoon through Saturday, with a low chance for a few thunderstorms in the southeastern Texas Panhandle. - Warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions expected next week. Fire weather potential may exist. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1116 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 Observational analysis shows H500 ridging atop the southern Plains tonight, leading to yet another warm February day. 850mb temps will warm through the afternoon, allowing high temperatures to top out in the 70s to possibly even low 80s across the SE Texas Panhandle. A weak front will sag south over the CWA tonight, keeping lows in the 30s for the northern half of the Panhandles. Looking at initial rounds of hi-res data for our late week precip potential, we find continued reasons for confidence that at least some rain should find its way to the region. The system we`re watching to provide this rain is currently being analyzed as a closed low centered over the San Francisco Bay. Models project this low dipping south over the Baja before ejecting eastward atop the Plains. Upon its final approach on Friday, southeast surface winds and strengthening southwest flow aloft will aid the advection of improved deep layer moisture (characterized by 40s to low 50s dew pts and 0.6-1.10" PWATs). Light showers should develop with the lead wave of energy by Friday afternoon-evening, with potential for some thunderstorms to mix in primarily across the southeast TX Panhandle. Highs on Friday range from upper 50s in the northwest to low 70s in the southeast, where cooling temperatures aloft will help some instability build up (250-500 J/kg MUCAPE). 50-60 kt bulk shear could help any updrafts get somewhat organized, but severe storms are not expected at this time. With models still split regarding whether or not the system will arrive as an open wave or closed low, NBM POPs and QPF amounts may be overinflated/overconfident in coverage and intensity with this initial wave. One cause for concern is that several models are depicting a dry slot ending precip early Friday night into Saturday morning. If this comes true, heaviest rain totals will greatly depend on locations of thunderstorms to achieve more efficient rain production, which again favors the southeast (30-60% chance for >0.50"). After that, the best chance for another round of decent rain may have to wait till later Saturday when wrap around moisture arrives from the north on the backside of the system. With all that being said, forecast POPs Fri night into Saturday remain quite high (50-80% chance of measurable rain), but don`t be surprised if there`s a significant break in the action at some point that these probabilities aren`t accounting for yet. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1116 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 As previously alluded to, additional showers and perhaps a storm or two will likely materialize on Saturday with the exiting system. If you didn`t get much if any rain up to that point, it would likely be your last chance. By the time all is said and done Saturday night, the probability for rainfall totals to stay below 0.5" is 60-90% across a majority of the forecast area, with some spots potentially only getting a tenth or less. Localized totals >1" are still within the realm of possibility, but probabilities have decreased and become further confined to the SE Texas Panhandle (10-20% chance). As we often see this time of year in the Panhandles, stronger systems bring substantially stronger winds to the region, and it looks like we may be setting up for a couple of those type days next week. Ridging aloft in between disturbances will kick off a warming trend Sunday through the rest of the week, with highs in the upper 60s and 70s each day. Monday through Wednesday is the time frame we`re keeping an eye on for stronger wind potential, when long range guidance shows a stout jet streak stretching across much of the country. If the dynamics work out, Tuesday looks to be the windier day at this point, with decent chances for warm and dry conditions as well. Even if we do get rain this weekend, we may have to keep an eye on a bonafide fire weather risk or two next week. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 High clouds may be present, but VFR sky conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period. Winds will turn around the dial through tonight at 5-15 kts. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38