480
FXUS64 KAMA 082330
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
630 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

-Thunderstorms will be possible for the eastern Panhandles on
 Saturday, with a few storms potentially becoming severe.

-There is a potential for some locations to reach 100 degrees in
 the afternoon by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

For today, still expecting a slow moving cold front to work its
way through the combined Panhandles today. Overtaking the
northwestern half of the combined Panhandles by noon with the rest
of the Panhandles to follow later in the afternoon into early
evening. This front will hold temperatures back slightly with the
northwest seeing highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Across the
southeastern Panhandles, afternoon highs are expected to be in
the mid 80s to lower 90s. Winds are expected to be on the breezy
side behind the front around 10-20 mph, and gusts may be up to 30
mph.

Tomorrow, H85 temperatures are progged to reach the 26 to 27
degrees C range across central to western half of the combined
Panhandles. Leading to afternoon highs well in the 90s for
Saturday. A leeside low is to traverse parts of southern KS into
NW Oklahoma through the day tomorrow. This feature will bring in
dry westerly, downsloping, winds to western portions of the
Panhandle aiding in the warm temperatures. This surface low will
also bring a cold front in from the north late in the day. If
things speed up and the front moves in faster, the northern
Panhandles may get afternoon heating shutoff early and see highs
in the mid to upper 80s instead of 90 or 91. A potential pseudo-
dryline, or tongue of surface moisture, may form somewhere in the
east and help create an environment for severe storms. However,
confidence remains low for the severe potential as this better
surface moisture may form in the eastern Panhandles and quickly
move into western OK. Moisture supply is not looking the greatest
for storms, especially at the surface. Some just in time moisture
at H7 may move into the southeast TX Panhandle, which may be
needed to spark some of the more robust showers/storms. Based on
forecast soundings storms are expected to be high based limiting a
threat for tornadoes. However, some CAPE values reaching upwards
of 1100-1200 J/Kg may be realized along with bulk shear around 35
kts leading to a risk of large hail upwards of half dollars.
Straightline winds will be a potential risk as well with the high
based storms and DCAPE around 1000 J/Kg. All in all, the period
for strong to severe storms in the far eastern counties, maybe two
stacks of counties, is looking to be short. Around an hour or two
in the afternoon before storms quickly move east into western OK.

Tomorrow night, under northwest flow, some additional moisture at H5
is looking to be present. Several CAMs are trying to spark some
showers across the Panhandles moving from the northwest to
southeast. However, the surface is to remain dry with these
showers ultimately be ending up as virga. A few isolated areas
may end up with a hundredth or two, but leaning towards mainly
sprinkles at best. For this reason, do not have any mentionable
PoPs. Will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast to at least
mention sprinkles if not a slight chance PoPs if trends continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

After Sunday, going into the work week, the combined
Panhandles are looking to come under a decent ridge. This ridge
is expected to have H5 heights rising to around 590dam allowing
for some triple digits to be realized on Tuesday. Tuesday may be
the warmest, but above average temperatures are expected to
persist from Mon thru Thu. The ridge may become weaker by Thu
with perturbations in the flow aloft possible, leading to a slight
chance of storms. Only seeing PoPs around 15 percent at this time
late Thu into Thu night. Beyond day 7, there have been some hints
at a possible increase in rain potential, but thats still a ways
out. Until then, looking to stay dry with drought persisting for
now under some above average heat for this time of year through
the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will be out of the north to start at 5-15 kts
with gusts over 20 kts at times. Winds will then shift to
southerly and southwesterly after 12Z Saturday with winds of 5-15
kts with some higher gusts at times. Skies will be mostly clear.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...29