Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
976 FXUS64 KAMA 140545 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 - Dry and windy conditions continue to trend for next Tuesday and Wednesday maybe even into Thursday, increasing the chances of critical fire weather conditions. - Tuesday will be the day of highest concern for both critical Fire Weather, and potentially high winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Positively tilted trough centered over the Phoenix to Yuma area will continue to track east toward the Panhandles and start to take a more neutral tilt as we head into Saturday. Ample cloud cover has been pushed out ahead of this system limiting the heating today. However, low level moisture is increasing and dynamic forcing out ahead of the system will allow for elevated thunderstorms to develop. Some of which have already moved through the Panhandles. Additionally, we can see a good patch of dry air in central to eastern NM that will move into the Panhandles and quickly put an end to most of the chances at moisture. We`ll have to keep an eye out for any areas that picked up decent rainfall, because as the dry air intrudes, there could be enough clearing to allow for some localized fog development overnight. By Saturday late morning the trough axis should be somewhere centered around the Midland to Lubbock area, and we`ll have to watch it closely as it does appear it will attempt to close off. Given it`s location and if it can close off this would support a better chance for wrap around rain in the Panhandles on Saturday afternoon right now pops are 20-40%. The other issue is that given the dry air intrusion that we expect to occur, would say that the moisture on the back side of the upper trough is limited, and the dry air could erode out some, if not most of that back side moisture. We also have a lee surface trough that will move across the Panhandles early tomorrow and tighten up with breezy winds out of the north after noon. Sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are favored. The strongest winds will be across the western Panhandles, and they will gradually decrease as we move further southeast. This will also allow for a bit of a temperature gradient across the Panhandles, as the northwest may only be in the mid 50s, and the southeast could be in the lower 70s. Most precipitation chances should be over with by Saturday evening and northwest winds will come down in the 5 to 15 mph range. Sunday we can expect high pressure to move back over the south central CONUS and warmer air will accompany. Another lee surface low is set to develop in southeast CO on Sunday afternoon. Given weak flow aloft the strength of the surface low will not be all that impressive, but warm dry and breezy winds 10-20 mph can be expected with highs in the 70s. We can also expect that the strongest winds will be in the northwest, and weakest in the southeast. Winds could stay up a bit overnight Sunday night and overnight lows for Monday morning may stay above 40 for most of the Panhandles. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 The main story of the extended will be in the Fire Weather section, however the focus will be on Tuesday as we do anticipated a potential wind event across the Panhandles. Monday will be a pretty quiet mild day with highs in the 70s, to maybe lower 80s as 850mb temperatures start to approach 20C in some areas. The lee surface low from Sunday still remains in southeast CO and will tighten up a bit, allowing for more widespread southwest winds 15-20 mph. The OK Panhandle may have some lighter winds due to proximity to the surface low, but overall a warm and breezy Panhandle day. Tuesday will be the primary concern as a well stacked jet will align over the Panhandles Tuesday afternoon and the surface low will tighten even further allowing or sustained winds out of the southwest 25-35 mph, but due to ample mixing to about 700mb, and a potent 50-70kt jet set up in the afternoon, there is a good chance for those winds to mix down, and for wind gusts to at least be 50+mph, but will not rule out high winds in excess of 60 mph. Winds will also shift more westerly in the late afternoon to evening as a Pacific front moves across the area. Wednesday the overall stacked jet will remain aloft as broad scale southwest flow continues due to another system deepening over the west coast. While We could see another breezy to windy day, and likely the continued Fire Weather issues, there is a hint that the jet may weaken a bit at the 500 and 700 levels, leading to wind gusts not being as strong. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Wednesday, but given that the dewpoints will be very low with that front, the RH values could still be below 10 percent on Wednesday. Even if it`s not a high wind day, that will still pose for continued issues on the Fire Weather side, especially if there are any active wildfires. Thursday and Friday we`ll have to keep an eye on, it appears that the continued dry and breezy pattern may want to persist into the weekend. The biggest concern with this pattern is that the nightly RH values may only get into the 25-40 percent range across most areas, and combine that with the warmer temperatures ranging from mid 60s on the cooler days to lower 80s on the warmer days, the concern for multiple days of critical Fire Weather are certainly going to be the focus of the extended. Weber && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 VFR conditions to start, but MVFR/IFR conditions will be favored for the 06-18z time period, as low clouds will be possible. KAMA may escape the low clouds, as they may just be scattered, but will not rule out MVFR/IFR conditions needed to be added later or through amendments. Most of the rain has move through the Panhandles, and dry air has moved in, but there could be some wrap around showers, but not worthy of adding to the TAFs at this time. It`s possible cigs are not aggressive enough, so will not rule out 1 to 3 hours of LIFR at KDHT and/or KGUY. Weber && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Warm and dry conditions will start to arrive on Sunday and persist through much of next week. Most days will see breezy to windy conditions. Overnight RH recoveries starting Sunday night will be fair at best to poor. Afternoon RH values in the 10-20 percent range on Sunday and Monday, with less than 15 percent on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The biggest concerns will start on Tuesday as a well stacked jet is expected to line up over the Panhandles, and will support very strong wind gusts over 50 mph coupled with RH values below 15 percent, and temperatures in the 70s. Wednesday will have a similar setup, but with slightly cooler temperatures and winds not quite as strong, we still anticipated breezy to windy conditions, but not quite as high of winds as Tuesday. The overall setup will continue through the end of the week. Will not rule out multiple critical Fire Weather days, but Tuesday and Wednesday have worst RFTI`s that range 6-8 on Tuesday and 3-7 on Wednesday. ERC`s are projected to be above the 70th percentile, and if moisture ends up being limited this weekend, those ERC`s could come up higher. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...89