635
FXUS64 KAMA 121128
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
628 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- 100+ degree temperatures potential in the panhandles through
  the weekend, with the highest confidence in the southeast.

- Later this afternoon through evening there is a 15-30% chance
  for showers and thunderstorms in the NE to E combined
  Panhandles. Severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

- A pattern shift early next work week has the potential bring
  much needed rain and breaks in temperatures to portions of the
  Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Today the high pressure system remains across the southern plains
with it center moving across the southern portions of the Texas
panhandles. This a flat high pressure system with the northern
panhandles being more within a broad west to east flow aloft. The
presence of the high pressure will bring heating to the panhandles
causing hot temperatures. The hottest areas will most likely be in
the southern panhandles with it not being as hot towards the
northwestern panhandles where the high pressure is not as strong.
This will lead to well above normal temperatures across the
panhandles with the potential for some record heat as the highs
reach the 90s to low 100s. As the center of the high pressure
shifts to the east it will allow a ribbon of moisture to push
across mainly the eastern portions of the panhandles. Then towards
the later afternoon and evening the broad west to east flow will
allow for a small scale weather system to pass across the northern
panhandles. The passage of this system will provide both lift and
dynamics which then coupled with the ribbon of moisture will
allow for a low to medium chance for thunderstorms. The most
likely area for these storms to form will be in the northeastern
to eastern panhandles. There is a degrading chance further west in
the central panhandles as it is questionable how far to the west
this small weather system will extend. The most likely timing for
these storms will be during the passage of the weather system
which is later in the afternoon through to the late evening. The
instability during this time can be high as the CAPE will most
likely range from 1500 to 2500 J/Kg with a few models suggesting
pockets of up to 4000 J/kg. The shear would most likely start off
more modest at 20 to 30 mph but would increase through the evening
potential reaching past 50 mph as the low level jet sets up. What
this means is that the environment is conducive for strong to
severe thunderstorms for later this afternoon and evening. The
initial mode for such storms can start off as discrete supercells
before shifting more towards cluster and linear features. Such
storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds,
tornados cannot be ruled out. The ribbon of moisture will be very
substantial so any storm that forms within will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall that can cause flooding. The storms will
most likely come to an end with the departure of the small weather
system during the late evening to early overnight hours.

Sunday the high pressure system remain dominant across the
southern plains but continues to shift further to the east. This
will likely lead to another hot day across the panhandles with
well above normal temperatures. There will once again be the
potential for record highs as the go into the 90s to low 100s.
With the high shifting to the east another small scale weather
system can pass across portions of the northwestern panhandles.
However, the moisture quantity is likely to be low with this
system which will keep any chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Monday brings a pattern shift as a large scale low pressure
system over the western CONUS moves east flattening out and
pushing eastward the high pressure system over southeastern CONUS.
This will allow for moisture to return to the region in force
starting later on Monday. The arrival of the moisture coupled with
the dynamics of the weather system will allow for a low chance for
afternoon to evening rain showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday is
shaping up to be the most active day as even more moisture and a
cold front arrives in the panhandles. This will bring a medium to
high chance for rain showers and thunderstorms favoring more of
the northwestern panhandles. Moisture continues to stream across
the panhandles through the rest of the work week. This will allow
for a low to medium chance for further rain showers and
thunderstorms through Friday. All this active weather will most
likely lead to cooler conditions for the panhandles for the
panhandles starting on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all sites for the next 24 hours. Though
thunderstorm chances have increase this afternoon and evening,
this activity is expected to remain east of all the TAF sites.
There is still a low (<10%) chance KGUY or KAMA could be
impacted, but mentions of thunder will only be included if the
likelihood for storms to expand westward increases.

Otherwise, breezy winds should overtake all sites today. The wind
direction at KAMA should remain southerly and eventually back
southeasterly, while KDHT and KGUY should have winds out of the
northeast for most of the day. Wind speed will die down once again
after sunset and remain light for the rest of the 12Z TAF period.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...55