169
FXUS64 KAMA 081801
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
101 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

-Isolated storms in the southeast today, with isolated to scattered
storms in the west and central Panhandles on Tuesday.  Storms have a
low chance to be severe, with hail and wind being the main threat.

-Hot temperatures today across the Canadian River Valley, and Palo
Duro Canyon, with widespread 100+ degree temperatures expected
Panhandle wide on Wednesday.  Practice proper heat safety this week.

-Friday through Sunday may be on a pattern change that suggests
 active weather. Thunderstorms are possible each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A fairly quiet day today with hot temperatures near 100 and a few
areas in the 105 range. Little bit of mid level moisture moving into
the southeast Panhandles this evening which may help trigger a storm
or two.  Surface low is expected to hold in the northeast Panhandle
and southwestern KS area, which will help keep the low level
moisture to the east.  Right now higher dewpoints are in that
southeastern TX Panhandle with Dozier currently at a dewpoint of 72
and further east here in Amarillo we have a dewpoint of 40.  While
shear is not that great in the southeast the ML CAPE values 1500-
2500 J/kg and DCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg, with a mean wind
of about 20kts would certainly support wind gusts up to 70 mph
despite that these storms may just be pulse severe.

As we move into Tuesday surface winds will be more easterly as
the dryline retreats and we`ll remain under a southwest flow aloft
with some mid level moisture advection across NM into northwest
Texas as it interacts with an approaching upper trough. This will
bring scattered showers and storms to the northwest Panhandles on
Tuesday afternoon and evening. While dynamics could be better, the
instability, shear, and forcing that will be available certainly
warrants the marginal threat for severe weather tomorrow, but may
be increased, it`s just the longevity of the storms and ability
to stay organized is in question. But still would expect at least
pulse severe tomorrow, with winds that could gust up to 75 mph and
hail up to ping pong. There may be an isolated storm or two that
tracks across the northern Panhandles and lingers through the
overnight hours.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Wednesday will be our hottest day as west to southwest flow and
warmer air is well advected over our area.  850mb temps ranging from
32C-34C will support likely widespread heat highlights.  And with a
pseudo-dryline setup across the southeastern Panhandles, as well as
a subtle wave moving across in the afternoon, models are indicating
some convection along that boundary from Clarendon to Canadian
around peak heating as we have a really good push of 700mb Theta E
moisture advected over that area. PWAT`s are pretty good in the 1.30-
1.40" range so storms that form will have the potential to be very
efficient rain producers.

Thursday will be another very warm day to hot in some areas, but for
most areas temperatures will stay under 100, the exception being
isolated locations in the Canadian River Valley as well as Palo Duro
Canyon State Park.  We`re looking at a cold front to move south in
connection with an upper level disturbance tracking across the
Dakotas and into the Great Lake Region.   A large moisture plume
that sets up from the Great Lakes all the way down to the Texas
Panhandle will interact with this front and is primed to set up a
good large scale severe event.  Right now the main focus of the
severe threat covered by SPC is in the Midwest area centered in
Illinois, but would not be surprised if that carries down to the
Panhandles with at least some marginal outlook as long as the front
hasn`t pushed too far south before convection can occur.

Friday through Sunday we will transition to more of a zonal flow
then a northwest flow and low level flow will be more out of the
south to southeast, keeping the dewpoints up and with temperatures
expected to be in the mid 80s to mid 90s, getting afternoon storms
to develop shouldn`t be that difficult.  Add to it any subtle
shortwaves embedded in that flow, and that will just increase the
chances.  NBM weekend pops continue to climb from Friday through
Sunday to reflect this pattern.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Overall winds will be out of the north northwest to start,
but should start to come around the clock and be mainly out of the
south. Wind will be mainly in the 10-20kt range and may gust to
30kts toward the end of the TAF period. LLWS out of the southwest
around 45kts will be possible in the 8z-16z time frame.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ008>010-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89