368
FXUS64 KAMA 160503
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1203 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

-Around a 20% chance of a severe thunderstorm this evening for
 portions of the Panhandles.

-Triple digit high temperatures expected Monday and Tuesday, where
 Head Advisories maybe needed, especially on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Latest 18Z surface observations shows a series of outflow
boundaries that have traverse the combined Panhandles initially
moving north to south, and now south-southeast to north-northwest.
Behind these outflow boundaries and cold pools from the
convection, low level stable airmass will likely be in its wake.
This should limit any surface based lift for thunderstorm
development through the rest of the day today. Starting this
evening through portions of the early morning hours tomorrow,
latest hi-res model data are showing another mid level perturbation
rounding the H500 high off its apex in the central and the
southern Rockies. This may give the western Panhandles about a 20%
chance of a shower or thunderstorm from approximately the 01-02Z
through around 08Z. A storm or two could be severe with damaging
winds being the main threat, if the thunderstorms can survive the
trip into the Panhandles from the Rockies. Going into the day
tomorrow, the heat will begin to build as the main H500 high
slowly builds further northeast into the southern High Plains.
This should bring mostly clear skies for the area with very warm
temperatures as well. High temperatures tomorrow will range from
the mid 90s to 100-103 degree range. With new hi-res data coming
in throughout the day, we could be issuing heat advisories,
especially for Palo Duro Canyon and some portions along the
Canadian River valley as early as tomorrow (10-40% chance of
reaching 105 degrees).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Tuesday will likely be the warmest day of the week. H850 30C-34C
temperatures will advect into the Panhandles bringing very warm
temperatures into the Panhandles. High temperatures on Tuesday
will likely range from the mid 90s in the NW Panhandles to
100-108 degrees across most of the Texas Panhandle. Heat advisory
headlines will likely needed for portions of the Panhandles. A
cold front Tuesday night will bring a 15-25% chance of showers or
thunderstorms to the Panhandles. Otherwise temperatures for
Wednesday will be back to near average for mid June before warming
up to slightly above average for the remainder of the long term
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Winds
will turn southwesterly today at around 15 kts gusting to around 25
kts, then turn southeasterly this evening at around 10 to 15 kts.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52