953
FXUS64 KAMA 281730
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely (generally 60% to 80%
  chance) across the Panhandles on Friday night and Saturday
  night. There is a low to moderate chance for flash flooding on
  both nights.

- There is a low chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm across
  the western combined Panhandles for both this evening and again
  Friday night. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
  hazards.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

The high pressure that is currently in southern TX continues to
drift to the west remaining the dominant weather feature for the
panhandles. This however will bring an uptick in the weather
activity as this is setting up a NW flow for the panhandles. This
flow will allow a series of small scale weather systems to push
across the panhandles for the coming days. The first of these
systems has already pushed a cool front across the panhandles
during the morning leading to a small decrease in the temperatures
for today. Even this slight decrease in temperatures will impact
the weather activity as it may prevent the convective temperatures
from being reached. As such this afternoon will only have a very
low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. The next weather
system is most likely to arrive this evening leading to a limited
uptick in the rain showers and thunderstorms for the far NW
panhandles. The dynamics associated with this system will lead to
a very low chance that these storms become strong to severe.
Regardless of storm intensity increasingly stable conditions
overnight will make it unlikely for any storm to persist for long
into early Friday morning. For the rest of the overnight there is
a moderate to high chance that a low level cloud deck will develop
that can lead to drizzly or foggy start to Friday.

Friday will start off on the cooler side which will help to limit
weather activity as it is unlikely that heating alone will flair
up rain showers and thunderstorms. Instead it will be during the
evening that will have the highest chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms as there is a very high chance for a potent small
scale weather system to move into the panhandles. This weather
system will start off in NM and CO slowly moving eastward entering
the panhandles early during the evening of Friday. This system
then continues to move eastward across the panhandles departing
during the morning hours of Saturday. The dynamics associated with
this system will be sufficient to cause isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms. There is a high chance that a ribbon of 1000-2000
J/Kg CAPE will set up in eastern NM to the western panhandles that
will fuel vigorous updrafts. The weather system will have bulk
shear of 30 kt to upwards of 60 kt that will allow for any
updrafts that do form to rotate and become better organized. This
is leading to the most likely scenario being that a line of
discrete rotating storms forming in NM and moving easterly into
the panhandles during the evening hours of Friday. Such storms
will be capable of producing of all hazards with the most likely
being large hail and damaging winds. As these storms move eastward
across the panhandles the environment becomes less favorable as
both the shear and the CAPE decrease. This will most likely see
the convective activity dissolve in a shield of stratiform rain
with some embedded weaker thunderstorms.

For both today and Friday very high moisture remains across the
panhandles. This is mainly seen through the PWATs which range
from 1.25 in to 1.75 in for both days. To put those numbers in
better perspective this means the atmospheric moisture is in the
top 10% to top 2.5% for this time of year. Very high moisture
indeed. This means that any rain shower or thunderstorms that
forming during this time will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall. Such rainfall can quickly lead to localized flash
flooding either directly from just the shear amount of rain or
more gradually from rounds of rain that build up flooding. As a
lot of storms are expected later in the day the flooding may occur
during the nighttime hours which will make it harder to detect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

The weekend has a high chance of seeing continued active weather
as the NW flow remains across the panhandles allowing for small
scale weather system to pass through.

The next of these weather system has a moderate to high chance of
pushing across the panhandles during the evening to overnight
hours of Saturday and Sunday morning. This weather system is
looking to be potent as well with dynamics that are supportive of
strong to severe storms. This would most likely take the form of a
linear system of rain and thunderstorms that moves from the NW to
SE across the panhandles. However, there is a fair amount of
uncertainty in play for this event currently including impacts
from the extent and durations of Friday`s convection. This makes
it so the forecast reflects a high chance that there will be rain
showers and thunderstorms while the threat for severe
thunderstorms remains very low due to the uncertainty. As we get
closer to this event we will have better details so be sure to
check back for later forecasts.

For early next week high moisture remains across the panhandles
which will allow for daily rain shower and thunderstorm formation.
What is lacking is any weather system of note to really get the
rain showers and thunderstorms going and then sustaining. As such
the chance for rain and thunder remain low during this time. This
will likely change come the later portions of next week as there
is increasing confidence that the next round of weather system
moves across the southern plains during this time. So next week
may start off with a period of lower rain and thunder chance that
then will increase for the rest of the week.

Still this weekend and into next week keep high moisture across
the panhandles which will allow for any rain shower or
thunderstorms to be able to produce heavy rainfall. The stronger
the storms the more likely that the heavy rainfall will occur.
Rainfall of such intensity will be fully capable of producing
localized flash flooding. All it will take is a strong storm in
the wrong area to cause flooding impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Currently there is a low level cloud deck in the northern
panhandles that is impact KGUY with MVFr conditions. This cloud
deck is expected to lift and scatter during the afternoon hours
leading to VFR conditions. KAMA and KDHT remain in VFR conditions
for the afternoon hours. This will shift come this evening when a
weather system pushes across the panhandles. Initially this
system bring rain showers and thunderstorms to the NW panhandles
with a very low chance of impacting KDHT and KGUY. If this occurs
then these rain showers and thunderstorms will most likely lead to
a reduction in conditions of MVFR to IFR mainly from rain
restricting visibility. As of now the chances of this occurring
are too low to be reflected in the TAFs Even if that doesn`t come
to pass this weather system will bring an overnight low level
cloud deck that will lead to degrading conditions of MVFR and IFR
at all terminals that will then persist into the morning hours of
Saturday. There is a low to moderate chance that either drizzle or
mist will occur underneath this low level cloud deck. This could
further add to the reductions in the conditions. Conditions will
be slow to improve for Saturday morning and even if they do
improve remaining mainly MVFR due to the low cloud deck.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98