Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
817 FXUS64 KAMA 181906 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 206 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 - Low chances (~20%) for thunderstorms in the southwestern and western Texas Panhandle today. - Chance (30-40%) for thunderstorms across the eastern Panhandles tomorrow, some of which could be severe. - Temperatures cool on Sunday, and rain chances return as early as Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 Upper-level southwesterly flow across elevated terrain in New Mexico will initiate thunderstorms today. With northeasterly storm motions, storms developing off high terrain southwest of the Panhandles will be steered toward our CWA. Survivability of storms as they move off of higher terrain is the uncertainty today, as they will be moving into a capped environment with weaker low- and mid-level lapse rates and negligible shear. This calls into question the coverage of storms as they move toward the Panhandles. However, if these storms developing in the higher terrain of NM push out an outflow boundary toward the Panhandles, in combination with a swath of positive theta- e advection at 700mb could increase the chances of storms in the far western and southwestern Panhandles. Precipitation chances in the far southwestern Texas Panhandle could persist late into the overnight hours and into the early morning hours on Saturday. Saturday, a surface boundary in tandem with the surface trough axis will set up across the southeastern Panhandles. This surface boundary is accompanied by a moisture gradient and weak surface convergence. With PWAT values above 1.4" along the initialization boundary and high moisture transport, storms should be efficient rain producers. However, storm motions and lack of training will limit flood potential. Short-range guidance suggests a wide range of CAPE values across this moisture boundary, however, most models are currently initializing under current observed CAPE indices from the 18Z balloon launch. Around 25kts of bulk shear, CAPE values likely to be above most current CAM analyses (2000-2500 J/kg), and modeled soundings showing wide CAPE profiles through the hail growth zone, storms along the northeastern portion of the boundary within our CWA could favor producing large hail. However, very modest shear will allow these storms to grow upscale, and high PWAT values indicate that when they do, hail potential will decrease due to melting. DCAPE values of 1200-1400 J/kg and 25 kt storm motions also indicate the potential for strong wind gusts, and this risk pertains to any storm initiated along the boundary. Recent trends have pushed this boundary further southeast due to dry air intrusions ahead of a weak cold front dipping into the northwestern Panhandles. The timing of convection along the boundary in relation to how far south the weak cold front and its associated dry air is will be key in determining if storms initiate across the Panhandles or to the southeast/east. Ferguson && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 Most CAMs suggest the cold front pushing through the Panhandles on Sunday morning and early afternoon. While this will likely bring cooler temperatures across the entirety of the Panhandles, it also means that by the time peak daytime heating is reached and convergence along the cold front initiates thunderstorms, the front will be southeast of the Panhandles, therefore limiting rain potential. By Monday, the upper- level pattern from the weekend flattening out and propagating east and a new upper-level trough is moving into southern California. A shortwave trough in zonal flow is responsible for possible precipitation chances across the southern Panhandles on Monday afternoon/evening, but the better chance for precipitation arrives Tuesday. As the trough propagates further east, it places the Panhandles in southwesterly upper- level flow, inviting monsoonal moisture from the Pacific and return moisture from the gulf due to high pressure over southeast Texas. This pattern also promotes lee-side surface low development, which could produce multiple days of active weather from Tuesday onward, depending on the speed of the new trough development moving in from the west. Ferguson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the 18Z TAF period. Winds will remain predominantly out of the SW/S for the TAF period, increasing to 15-20 kts through this afternoon (higher at KDHT and KGUY, lower at KAMA). Storms could be possible at the KDHT TAF site from 00-06Z this evening, but confidence is low in that outcome, therefore not included as a PROB30 in the TAF. A westerly wind shift is possibly at KGUY near the end of the TAF period, as a front dips south from KS/CO. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...23