Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
632 FXUS64 KAMA 191114 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 514 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 - Potentially wetting rains and cooler temperatures will arrive to the Panhandles starting Wed night through Thu. A low chance for some localized flooding will need to be monitored. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Moisture is (knock knock) knocking on the Panhandles` door today, gradually streaming in ahead of the approaching closed low currently passing over southern California. Dew pts and PWATs are still pitiful tonight (30s dew pts and PWATs <0.5"), but that will change through the day as southwest flow ushers in positive 700mb theta-e advection to the region. Skies will be cloudy as a result, but temperatures should warm into the 70s again for a majority of the area. The first wave of energy ahead of the low should get to the Panhandles later this morning and afternoon, and may be enough to generate some scattered light showers, with perhaps a few weak storms over eastern counties based on recent CAM runs (15-30% POPs). After what should be a lapse in activity overnight, rounds of more numerous areas of light to moderate showers with embedded thunder are anticipated to spread from southwest to northeast for much of Thursday. Most precipitation should still be in the form of general showers, however there is the potential for pockets of stronger convection to develop if sufficient instability could materialize this far north. Marginal instability would be the best case scenario (500-750 J/kg MUCAPE), especially considering forecast highs in the 50s and 60s. In spite of that, any stronger storms tomorrow will have ample moisture to be quite efficient rain producers thanks to PWATs likely reaching or exceeding 0.75-1.0". Even if deeper organized convection fails to form, multiple rounds of moderate rain could still be enough to help some locations see >1" of rainfall Thursday. Central to eastern portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles have 20-50% probabilities to exceed 1" of rain, with CAMs showing localized potential for isolated totals up to 2" (10-20% chance). Realistic low-end totals for those that receive rain will be in the one to two tenths of an inch range, while there is a less than 10% chance for rogue totals >2". Activity will wane Thursday night into Friday as the system lifts northeast over the region, pulling a dry slot overhead that will snuff out moisture. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Temperatures will settle in typical fall ranges later this week into next, topping out in the 50s and 60s, behind a cold front arriving Friday. Moisture will briefly take a vacation from our neck of the Lone Star State Saturday, but long range models have persisted suggestions that we may be keeping an active stretch of weather going early next week. Several discrepancies exist between models regarding the track and timing of this system, but most data sets indicate it may pan out similarly to this week`s disturbance. Rain chances are on the rise and looking rather promising next Sun- Mon, ranging from 20-50% across the forecast area. Northwest flow behind this system would be conducive for cooler air masses to sag south over the region, further reinforcing the return of fall temperatures. This translates to potential highs in the 40s & 50s by mid next week, with lows in the 20s and 30s. Harrel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 As the system continue to approach the Panhandle this morning, all terminals are expected to see cloud cover slowly build into broken and/or overcast conditions. However, celling should stay at VFR levels through most of the day and only begin descending closer to the overnight hours with the full arrival of the system. On thing that will need to be watch during the morning and afternoon hours is the potential for KAMA to see brief showers with its vicinity. Currently chances for these showers to have an actual impact on the terminal remain 10% or less, but look for all terminals to have chances become more and more likely later tonight into Thursday. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...11