385
FXUS64 KAMA 140510
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1210 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

- Shower and thunderstorms chances persist for the panhandle
  during the next 7 days.

- Below average high temperatures will continue until a warming
  trend begins later this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Today`s forecast is pretty similar to Sunday`s, with highs in the
mid 80s to low 90s, and ~10-15% chances for isolated "popcorn"
convection in the afternoon-evening hours. Despite plenty of
instability (1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE), weak shear and forcing will
limit severe potential, aside from gusty winds and brief heavy
rain. Tuesday will be characterized by breezy 15-25 mph southwest
winds beneath a tighter pressure gradient, and widespread highs in
the 90s. Precipitation chances are on the decline though, with
only a 10-15% chance for the far northwest Panhandles to be
clipped by passing storms. Overnight lows are forecast to be in
the 60s to low 70s.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Models appear to be doing a better job handling the evolution of our
synoptic pattern going towards the weekend, when we should see high
pressure start to gradually overtake the southern Plains. In the
meantime though, Wed-Thu night is when we`ll find the best chances
at precipitation across the Panhandles. Disturbances passing over
the central to northern Great Plains will generate rounds of
convection, which are progged to send outflow boundaries our way,
potentially stalling and generating showers/storms for our CWA.
Based on storms emanating off the higher terrain Wed through Thu
night, best probabilities (40-60%) for rain reside mainly across the
western and northern Panhandles during those time frames. This will
heavily depend on previous days convection, so timing and placement
of POPs will need fine tuning as we approach midweek. Ensembles
agree that moisture should be easy to come by when the boundaries
arrive, giving >80-90% probabilities for PWATs to exceed 1" area
wide, so a healthy soaking rain may be in store for some.

As we round up the work week and dive into the weekend, we find
ourselves under pressure of the high variety, with warmer
temperatures pushing down on me and pressing down on you. By early
next week, the NBM is spitting out more upper 90s and even some
triple digits for much of the forecast area (far more typical for
mid-late July). Daytime heating and any "ridge rider" disturbances
may still take advantage of the moisture which refuses to vacate the
region though, continuing to support daily low precip chances Fri-
Sun.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 06Z TAF period with
winds out of the south to southeast 5 to 10 kts. Very very low
chance of some localized brief showers and thunderstorms in the
area will exist through the period. With such low chances of any
one localized shower impacting a terminal, have left out any
mentions of thunder.

36

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...36