653
FXUS64 KAMA 100559
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Hot temperatures prevail through Thursday with typical hot spots (Canadian
  River Valley, and Palo Duro Canyon) likely (>70% chance) of
  exceeding 105 as a high, and elsewhere in the 95-105 range

- Daily Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions continue
  through Thursday.

- A potential pattern change Thursday through the weekend leading to
  higher rain chances ( and more seasonal temperatures.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Decaying showers in the far west overnight.  Winds will stay up in
the 8 to 15 mph range overnight, and be mainly south to southwest 15
to 20 mph tomorrow. This will once again promote elevated to near
critical Fire Weather conditions as ERC`s are quite stressed from
limited rainfall and consistent hot temperatures over the past
several weeks.  Yesterday there was a limited threat for dry
lightning that could threaten new fire starts, but that shouldn`t be
the case today.  Storms do look like they will be near the border,
but not sure if they will make it into the Panhandles this
afternoon.  With the upper level pattern very similar to yesterday,
but maybe a degree or two cooler, we can expect similar highs to
yesterday, but a little less coverage for the Heat Advisory. Still
looking at the southeast Panhandles (Wheeler, and Collingsworth
County) as a possible add to the current Heat Advisory.

Tuesday again will be very similar to Monday.  Temperatures, while
still hot, may fall a degree or two, but thats still subject to
change, because the overall pattern really hasn`t changed, and NBM
bias may still have the temperatures down 1 to 3 degrees from what
the overall pattern supports, additionally as the high begins to
shift further east we are getting a little better chance of
precipitation sneaking into the northwest zones, and perhaps we`ll
get some cloud coverage that might mitigate the temperatures a bit,
but for now it looks pretty similar to Monday, including the breezy
south winds around 15 mph which would continue the elevated Fire
Weather conditions.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Carbon copies of Monday and Tuesday look to occur on Wednesday and
somewhat on Thursday.  At least from the heat standpoint on Thursday
we should be similar.  In fact Thursday could turn out to be the
hottest day best on the setup, but we are looking at that high
pressure being far enough east that now the return south to
southwest flow will now start to bring both Gulf and Pacific
moisture over the Panhandles and increase those chances of showers
and storms, but mainly for the northwest Panhandles.  Thursday
afternoon we may have an interesting setup.  Models are suggesting
that we may have residual outflow from storms off the mountains on
Wednesday track through the central Panhandles and collide with
moist southeast flow during peak heating, which given the hot
temperatures and the strong low level convergence that we could get
good storm development across the HWY 60 corridor and areas to the
north.  Still several days out and a lot can change, but moving
forward the overall setup of the Panhandles being more on the back
side of the upper ridge, and more moist surface flow as well as
south to southwest flow aloft would support better thunderstorm
chances through the weekend.  It may even lead to some increased
severe chances, or possible hydro concerns given that storms may be
slow movers. Will remind that while precipitation chances will be up
and temperatures will be down from our current state, overall the
best chances for meaningful rainfall would be the northwest, and
anything south and east of HWY 60 is highly in question as to how
much or even if rain will occur at all.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
Main thing to focus on will be LLWS out of the south southwest
around 45kts through about 14z at KDHT and KGUY.  Winds will be
south to southwest for the majority of the TAF period in the 15-20kt
range with gusts mainly 20 to 25kts with isolated 30kt gusts.  Right
now thunderstorms are not enough of a concern as chances look to be
less than 10 percent.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ004-005-010-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89