113
FXUS63 KAPX 291041
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
641 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and storms late Sunday into Monday.
  Storms are not expected to be severe at this time

- A swath or two of an inch or greater by Monday across northern
  MI is likely. Training of heavier rain could result in local
  flooding concerns

- Warmer temperatures and off and on rain chances linger through next
  week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Current water vapor satellite depicts mid to high level moisture
streaming in from the eastern Pacific, over the Rockies and into the
Great Plains as a positively tilted upper trough digs down the
western US coast. As the upper ridging is broken down and shoved
east, the moisture being injected aloft is aligning with lee
cyclogenesis over SD. An MCS is blossoming this morning, and will
continue to travel east, around the upper ridge. The upper troughing
will slowly track over the northern Rockies this weekend, however
before this the surface low will drift towards the western Great
Lakes region. This will gradually lift the warm sector towards MI
(starting today). Cloud cover will increase as intermittent light
rain begins later this afternoon. Lightly breezy southwest winds
will become breezy this afternoon (especailly over NW lower), with
occasional gusts up to 15 to 25 mph (strongest over coastal and
coastal adjacent areas).

By Sunday morning, the warm surface front will stall somewhere over
the CWA. By this time, the deeper moisture will have officially
arrived, and with it a moderately unstable airmass (around 1000 j/kg)
and healthy shear (25 to 30 kts sfc to 3km). Embedded showers and
storms will have a chance to form right along the boundary
throughout the day, however will likely struggle to form elsewhere
over the CWA. That is not to say established showers and storms
couldn`t move into northern MI from across the lake. This
environment will be capable of training storms, which is apparent in
modeled QPF signals where a majority show one main +1" swath
somewhere over northern MI by Monday morning. Higher uncertainty lies
in the exact location (due to where the warm front stalls) and exact
timing (Sunday afternoon or overnight). The potential of training
showers and storms results in concerns for flooding. Due to the
limited coverage of highest amounts, flooding is expected to remain
isolated and mostly local (low spots in hilly terrain and a brief
rise in creeks and streams).

With the very moist airmass and healthy lower level shear profiles
(especailly true along the boundary itself), there will be a non-
zero chance for tornados. Gusty outflow winds are also possible,
however it will be hard for large hail to reach the surface without
melting on its way down. To summarize, severe threats with storms is
not expected at this time.

Early next week, the upper level trough becomes negatively tilted and
wraps up over the Dakotas. Warmer temperatuers will continue during
this time, as the axis of this weaker upper ridge lands over MI
Monday. Moisture will linger, which continues intermittent chances
for showers and storms (especially as the warm front transitions
into a stationary boundary and could be contaminated by cold pools.
Showers and storms could fire off of smaller, more mesoscale
boundaries Monday. Due to the overall weaker forcing and
environment, coverage is not expected to be widespread and
intensity is expected to be more minimal. The upper closed low will
continue east, tracking along the international border and reaching
northern MI by late Tuesday. Some guidance wants to drag a dry slot
along with this (on the southern side of the upper closed low). It
is too early to have a good read on the chances for this, however it
could pause rain chances for Tuesday.

An active pattern over the northern Rockies will continue into early
September, which will continue to transport Pacific mid to high
level moisture. This could be supplemented by lower level Gulf
moisture a few times, which would continue the on and off chances
for precipitation through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Chances for showers will increase this afternoon and especially
tonight. Expect CIU to lower to MVFR and then IFR later tonight,
and PLN becomes MVFR overnight. Otherwise prevailing VFR
conditions, though brief restrictions are certainly possible at
the other TAF sites. Breezy sw winds by this afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening
     for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JZ