999
FXUS63 KAPX 030629
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
Issued by National Weather Service Marquette MI
229 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers tonight into Sunday.

- Coldest temperatures of this fall season Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Warm advection begins to overspread the region later today,
along with mid level moisture as a short wave digs into the
Upper Midwest. Consequently, a few showers may be possible this
afternoon/evening across the E UP. The main lift from that
approaching s/w coupled with better column moisture will move
into the area later tonight into the middle portions of Sunday,
coinciding with the best chance for showers. Generally a light
rainfall for many. Otherwise, much of the day on Saturday will
be quiet and pleasant, a few degrees warmer than Friday.

First push of cooler air will be Sunday afternoon as winds
become breezy and shift to the northwest. Thus, despite some
elevated winds, temperatures will be relatively cool/cold Sunday
night with low to mid 30s possible, with another round of frost
products not out of the question. High pressure settles and
oozes into northern MI Monday and Monday night with slackening
winds and mostly clear skies, setting the stage for the coldest
night of the fall season. A freeze is likely for many away from
the immediate shorelines.

Subtle hint at a few lake induced rain showers Sunday
afternoon/Sunday night by some pieces of ensemble guidance prior
to the sfc high pressure moving into the region. Nevertheless,
much of early next week will be cool (Monday) and dry. Heading
into the mid to later portions of next week, deep troughing will
hang out just to the north of the region across Ontario and
adjacent Canadian provinces, with occasional features embedded
within the main flow trying to impinge across northern Michigan.
Consequently, although right now it looks more dry than wet
during this time period, occasional light shower chances cannot
be ruled out, especially the farther north one is. Little bit of
a rebound as well temperature wise with 60s during this time,
although well keep an eye on this moving forward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions and light winds prevail early this morning save
for patchy IFR/LIFR ground fog at MBL. Any lingering fog will
dissipate after sunrise. Increasing high to mid level cloud
cover is expected today accompanying a shortwave set to work
through the Great Lakes tonight through early Sunday. A few
scattered -shra is possible towards the very end of the 06z TAF
cycle, but have largely left out any precip at this time.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ017-018-022-
     023-027>029-032>035-086-087-095-096.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...MQT