616
FXUS63 KAPX 021903
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
203 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds this afternoon through Monday.

- Showery weather tonight into Monday, with active periods
  expected again later this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Low amplitude shortwave ridging situated
across northern MI this afternoon...sandwiched between upper-level
low over the TN Valley and upstream shortwave over south-central
Canada. As a result, split flow becoming more prominent late this
weekend, with strong westerlies surging from the Pac NW eastward
into the northern Plains/southern Canada. Upstream jet expected to
buckle tonight into Monday, pushing strong height falls into the
region, along with an attendant cold front. By late Monday night
into Tuesday, more zonal flow anticipated across Great Lakes.

Forecast Details: Primary focus through the remainder of the
daylight hours today revolves around increasingly gusty southwest
winds, with the highest gusts through sunset west of I-75 and in
particular near the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline.

Strong winds expected to continue through tonight with a strong LLJ
(30-40 kts at 925mb / 40-55 kts at 850mb) aiding in downward
momentum transfer, especially over the Great Lakes. More uncertainty
over land with just how high gusts are able to materialize, but
still some non-zero probabilities showing up for wind advisory
criteria (45 mph gusts). These very low probs focused along the
immediate lakeshores of western Mackinac, Emmet and Charlevoix
counties. Given such low confidence and the expectation that any
gusts that strong over land would be few and far between, have
foregone a wind advisory at this time. That said, it`ll be worth
monitor wind trends through the evening/overnight as it`ll be gusty
area-wide -- largely 25-40 mph (again highest across far northwest
lower and the Straits region).

Increasing chances for synoptically driven rain arrive this evening
with initial PoPs spreading in from the northwest after 01-02z.
Latest trends support rain become more widespread for a period of
time tonight while crossing northern MI before the steadiest precip
exits by sunrise Monday, although some sporadic shower chances
linger all the way into the afternoon in spots. Not out of the
question that some of tonight`s activity could be rather vigorous
given ample forcing, decent pocket of Pacific-originated moisture,
and even some fumes of low-mid level instability. While severe
weather is not anticipated, some small hail and a rumble of thunder
or two can`t be ruled out, along with locally stronger winds
(despite already gusty synoptic winds). Lows tonight largely in the
low-mid 40s before climbing to the low 50s for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Pattern Forecast: More zonal flow aloft is expected to prevail
Tuesday before shortwave troughing and fast-moving attendant low
pressure potentially bring a brief return of wet weather to the area
Tuesday night/Wednesday. A relatively active pattern looks to remain
on tap through the end of the week with another, more potent, system
possible heading toward the Thursday night-Friday time frame.

Day 2-3 (Tuesday - Wednesday): A generally quieter day is expected
Tuesday with dry conditions, lighter winds and temperatures back
into the low-mid 50s area-wide. Shower chances return Tuesday night-
Wednesday, especially across the northern half of the forecast area
as strengthening low pressure zips across the Great Lakes region.

Day 4-7 (Thursday - Saturday): Another relatively tranquil day
anticipated on Thursday as ~1025mb high pressure crosses the area.
However, rain chances return Thursday night through the end of the
long term as potential exists for another area of low pressure to
dive out of southern Canada into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes.
Beyond this late week/weekend system, latest ensemble trends point
toward a shot of much cooler air arriving just beyond the end of the
long term forecast period. We`ll see if that holds in the coming
days -- if so, could be our first real shot of some snow across
parts of the Northwoods.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Strong, gusty southwest winds increase this afternoon ahead of
an approaching line of showers to track across northern Michigan
tonight. Conidtions mainly remain VFR through the entirety of
the forecast period as RA keeps VSBYs at 4-6+ miles and Cigs
just above MVFR levels other than the periodic embedded low Cu.
Strong winds gusting into the low 30s for most locations will be
strongest overnight and expect to carry through all day Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for LHZ345-346.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for
     LHZ347>349.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...SJC