286
FXUS63 KAPX 052306
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
706 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/freeze concerns for at least the next few nights

- Persistent cool weather, only slowly moderating this week

- Only very small precip chances until the end of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Upper low will perpetually spin over ne Canada/Hudson Bay region,
though and beyond this forecast. This will favor persistent nw flow
aloft into the northern Great Lakes, and keep heights suppressed. We
have returned to below-normal temps today, and there we will tend to
stay.

Cooler temps aloft over northern areas have resulted in steeper mid-
level lapse rates near Upper MI. Well-developed cu field up there is
resulting in a few showers, with rain reported at CIU/DRM earlier.
These may linger into early evening, before heating is lost. Cu
field elsewhere is much more shallow, indicative of somewhat dryer
low-level air, with surface dew points mixing down into and thru the
20s. Tonight, as winds lighten again, we will another opportunity
for good radiational cooling. However, guidance is suggesting a
partly cloudy across northern lower MI, with both some cirrus
impinging from the sw, and leftover stratocu advecting in from the w
and being slow to erode. Should still be ample opportunity for
surface to fall into the mid 30s to upper 20s tonight, with the
coldest readings in the interiors of ne lower MI and the eastern UP.
Frost advisories and/or freeze warnings have already been issued for
all of northern lower MI for tonight.

High temps will tend to very slowly moderate moving thru the rest of
the week. Max temps 45-55 on Wednesday, climbing to the low 50s to
low 60s by Saturday. Min temps will also very slowly come along for
the ride, but relatively widespread freeze warnings are likely again
for at least Wed night. Gradual moderation starts to kick in after
that.

A combination of increased attempted return flow, still coolish
temps aloft, diurnal heating, and shortwaves rotating around the
upper low, will support chances for showers by the end of the week.
This chance is highest during the day Saturday. There is nothing
here that looks like a for-sure washout, not yet at least. This will
boost max temps to there warmest forecast values on Saturday, before
retreating a smidge for Moms Day and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 704 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR condition through this taf cycle, with just some passing
high based clouds tonight and a developing higher based cumulus
field on Wednesday. Winds become light tonight. Northwest winds
Wednesday, a bit gusty during the afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ016>018-
     021>024-026>030-032>036-098-099.
     Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ020-025-
     031-041-042.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...MSB