262
FXUS63 KAPX 231755
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
155 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog tonight, particularly northeast lower MI.

- Mild through the weekend, slight chance for showers Sunday.

- Cooler, but likely seasonable, early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Another night, another round of fog as sfc high pressure remains off
to our east. South to southeast low level flow will advect moisture
off Lake Huron, resulting in the best chance for fog near Saginaw
Bay. Seems it could travel inland as well across the interior, and
leak into eastern upper as well. Patchy fog possible elsewhere.
Other than that, southerly flow and increasing heights on Saturday
will lead to rising temperatures, and the start of a truly nice
weekend for the end of October.

Above normal heights aloft, as has been the case, will remain over
northern MI this weekend with southerly transport winds.
Consequently, temperatures rise into the 60s to near 70 degrees each
afternoon this weekend. Ridging gets beat down some by impressive
upper trough across Ontario, and subsequent boundary will leak down
into northern MI. Thus, as the energy to the north continues east,
the cold front and cooler airmass slowly push into northern MI early
next week. This feature will produce showers as well,
particularly on Sunday and across eastern Upper Michigan, but
leakage down into northern lower possible as well (light rain
for those "lucky" enough). That being said, this cool down will
feel cooler than it really is, with progged high temps hovering
around normal for this time of year (upper 40s to lower 50s
most areas).

Pretty energetic from Tuesday and through the rest of the week as
multiple short waves/upper lows track from the Pac NW/Desert SW across
the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, the northern stream remains
active as well. How these features interact and how far south
any northern stream piece of energy digs will tell us how cool,
or warm, it may get. Current ensemble guidance means are
generally more warm (or above normal) than cool (or below
normal) as the vast majority of guidance keeps the main
troughing and subsequent seasonably cold air to the north.
Additionally, light precipitation chances are possible, starting
Tuesday into mid week as an upper low tracks into the Upper
Midwest. How far west this feature tracks will determine how
much precip we get. Farther west and we lose the influence,
farther east, and more moisture and synoptic forcing produce
more in the way of scattered showers. Latest GEFS prob for 24
hour precip >0.1" is generally low (10-40%) with higher probs
across Upper Michigan, perhaps indicating that a farther west
trajectory, at least initially, may be the preferred solution.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Any low clouds will continue to dissipate through this early
afternoon, leaving VFR conditions. Winds will be generally
light and from the southeast. Another round of BR/FG and low
CIGs is possible tonight (LIFR/IFR), looking most likely at
KPLN, KCIU, and KAPN, although sure KMBL will try to get in on
the action. Lesser confidence for KTVC. Nevertheless, FG lifts
and scours out through the morning hours on Saturday with an
eventual return to VFR. Precipitation free through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JLD