501
FXUS63 KAPX 141105
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
605 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue, resulting in a slow
  melting of snowpack the next several days.

- Active weather potential with mixed precipitation types as we
  head into midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Zonal flow regime in full control, allowing for a belch of Pacific
air to infiltrate the region, in quite an impressive turnaround from
what we had been dealing with through much of the end of January.
Currently contending with a plume of low level moisture leading to
mix of stratus and freezing fog across the area... anticipating any
fog to lift rather quickly this morning. Otherwise... surface high
pressure over the eastern CONUS keeping things generally dry and
mundane through the weekend with above average high temperatures in
the 30s and 40s... perhaps poking near or exceeding 50 Sunday in
the far southern reaches of the CWA as a WAA wing rockets through
and SW flow pumps in even milder air. For the time being, nighttime
lows are expected to hold in the 20s. The pattern trends more active
into next week as troughing over the west coast starts spitting out
waves of energy into the eastern CONUS. Initially, a cold front
dipping into the Great Lakes may spark off some rain showers /
drizzle Monday as highs peak well in the 40s once again. Despite
the mundane nature of things... will have to watch the local
rivers / streams for ice jam potential as we trend toward a more
thaw dominant regime and streamflows increase, and thus
increasing potential for iced over streams to bust open and
issues to arise in problem spots.

We will see see a subtle baroclinic zone materialize across the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes heading into midweek, with
modestly favorable jet dynamics supporting ample lift in an
elongated zone stretching from roughly Alberta to the northern
Great Lakes in the Tuesday night - Thursday timeframe. This will
also support low pressure development across the Corn Belt...
which adds a layer of intrigue to this setup... with surface
high pressure holding steadfast off the Outer Banks of North
Carolina, this adds potential for a Gulf moisture tap on top of
an already stout Pacific moisture plume set to park across the
northern third to half of the CONUS. As such, anticipating a
return to active weather across the region... and with model
guidance remaining all over the place, it is kind of tough to
nail down how this will exactly play out. One thing is for
certain... pattern recognition says that with a regime so
dominated by warm advection, this could be a wintry smorgasbord
of precipitation across the board. So with all that being
said... more details to come regarding this potentially very
impactful period of weather.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Patchy dense fog and low stratus have been deteriorating
conditions across terminals early this morning, with this trend
expecting to continue (MVFR to LIFR) before fog/ low stratus
slowly burn off through the morning hours. Conditions look to
improve to MVFR/ VFR by this afternoon, with another round of
low stratus/ fog expected again tonight. Light winds will
continue through the issuance period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HAD
AVIATION...NSC