588
FXUS63 KAPX 181032
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
632 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Air quality improves this weekend with limited chances of precipitation.


-Showers and thunderstorms return this Monday with stronger/severe
potential.

-Seasonably cool weather with mainly precipitation free
 conditions build beyond midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave midlevel troughing continues to keep the majority of the
CONUS occupied, while broad troughing currently centered over the
Quebec/Newfoundland border influences the Northeastern U.S. An
embedded wave will continue to dig across the Great Lakes Region
this morning while moving downstream to the Lower Great Lakes this
afternoon/evening, resulting in height rises across the CWA and
generally improved weather. While a couple of low-level showers
remain possible this morning, overall quiet weather is expected as
surface high pressure builds combined with generally improving air
quality.

Another shortwave currently over the Pacific Northwest will progress
eastward this weekend, developing surface low pressure lee of the
Rockies and making its way to the Great Lakes Region this Monday.
Southerly moisture advection this afternoon combined with increasing
afternoon instability will likely lead to widespread showers and
storms in the upper Midwest. Aforementioned longwave troughing will
deepen beyond midweek next week leading to seasonably cold
temperatures as we head into late July.

Forecast Details:

Today and Sunday: A few isolated showers remain possible this
morning as last night`s wave continues to move downstream. Profiles
remain dry in the mid and high levels but pockets of moisture could
provide an additional trace or so before subsidence dries out the
CWA and clears cloud cover this evening. The biggest noticeable
change will be the improvement of Air Quality and integrated smoke
values. An Air Quality Alert will continue through the daytime
hours, but noticeable improvement will be a relief compared to
Thursdays and Fridays conditions.


Monday and Tuesday: The previously mentioned shortwave will return
showers and storms to the CWA Monday afternoon/evening. Model
soundings depict skinny CAPE profiles and enough instability to keep
severe weather potential in the forecast. PWATs around the 75th
percentile suggest heavy convective-driven rainfall for most areas
while a few embedded discrete cells could generate hail. Widespread
rainfall amounts will vary due to the nature of typical convective
summertime rainfall, but highest probabilities of QPF remain between
0.50 and 1 at this time.


Wednesday through Friday Outlook: Longwave midlevel troughing to the
northeast will continue to influence the Great Lakes region through
the remainder of the forecast period. Surface high pressure will
keep conditions dry overall with a Canadian air influence delivering
seasonably cool temperatures to the region. Highs will likely drop
into the upper 60s/low 70s while our average across the CWA is
generally 10-12 degrees warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Low cloud deck and some lingering showers and storms still to
bring some periods of MVFR to IFR cigs and vis restrictions
early this morning. Rain threat ends quickly heading through
the morning, leaving behind an elevated cu field. Skies go clear
tonight. Smoke will also dissipate substantially, with
significant improvements in visibilities expected. Gusty
northwest winds today become light tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...MSB