202
FXUS63 KAPX 282334
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
734 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well below normal temperatures through Friday night...with some
frost concerns both tonight and Friday night.

- Gradual warming trend and dry conditions this Labor Day Weekend
into early next week.

- Rain chances return the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Deepening troughing into the eastern Great Lakes sending a
reinforcing shot of some rather unseasonably chilly air across the
Northwoods this afternoon. Cold front on the leading edge of this
rather intense cold air advection now well off to our south across
the lower Great Lakes...taking any lingering showers along with it.
Despite a more than enough over-water thermal gradient, aggressive
post-frontal drying and quickly lower convective depths has
significantly muted the lake response...with really nothing more
than some shallow strato-cu rotating off the big waters. That top-
down drying has also begun to thin out the clouds some, with skies
trending more sunny away from those favored lake zones.

Center of deep troughing will continue to work slowly east, reaching
vicinity southern Quebec/New England by sunrise Saturday. Large and
just as slow moving northern Canada originated high pressure will
build south in its wake, centering across the Great Lakes Friday
into the start of this Labor Day weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and attendant possible frost concerns tonight.

Details:

Still likely to see some shallow lake response into tonight and
Friday morning, manifested as bands of strato-cu impacting coastal
areas of those big waters. Will also need to watch for band of low
level moisture to drop south out of Canada...perhaps bringing
shallow clouds to eastern upper and northeast lower Michigan
overnight. Different story across interior sections of northern
lower Michigan, where inland areas may completely clear out as
we head through the overnight. Wet grounds from recent rains
should help at least partially mute what otherwise should be at
least a decent nocturnal temperature response in these inland
areas. Could easily see our typical colder locations make a run
at the mid to upper 30s, with otherwise widespread 40s away from
those lake modified regions. Patchy frost again appears
possible in those colder locations. Not headline worthy, but no
doubt worth a mention in our hazardous weather products and
graphics.

Coldest temperature anomalies (H8 temperatures in the lower single
digits!) rotates south across the eastern Great Lakes on Friday.
Plentiful sunshine will do its best to modify the impacts of
this airmass at the surface (still late summer after all).
Still, looking at highs Friday running well below normal, with
expected afternoon readings ranging through the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

High pressure that introduces itself in the near term looks to
continue to dominate our weather right through this Holiday Weekend.
Mid-range guidance trends support another vigorous wave dropping
southeast out of Canada toward mid-week...sending another shot of
chilly air into the region. We shall see.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends this weekend with secondary focus on mid-week
shower potential with that next shot of cooler air.

Details:

More excellent conditions to support strong radiational cooling
Friday night with light/calm winds and what should be mostly clear
skies. Surface conditions will further dry Friday, perhaps
supporting even a greater temperature response. Again, easily
looking at those colder interior areas making a run into the mid and
upper 30s. Would not be terribly surprised to see some locales dip
into the lower 30s (looking at you Grayling). Not completely out of
the realm of possibility for the need for a frost headline for a
few select counties.

Trends continue to support rather pleasant conditions for this
Holiday weekend. Coldest temperature anomalies will be lost by
Saturday, and airmass will go through steady modification given
late summer sunshine. Expecting highs mostly in the lower 70s
Saturday, with afternoon readings both Sunday and Labor Day
likely well up into the 70s. Some guidance does want to produce
isolated moist convection along lake breeze convergence axes
during the afternoon hours of Sunday and Monday. Perusal of
guidance derived soundings argues otherwise, with too limited
available surface moisture to allow deep enough convection to
support shower development.

As mentioned earlier...still appears a rather vigorous wave and
attendant cold front will race southeast out of Canada mid-
week...drumming up more shower chances as the do so. Of course,
much to early to offer any real specifics...with both timing
and intensity of this wave subject to many changes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Moderate confidence forecast for generally VFR/MVFR cigs from
03Z thru 14Z. SCT-BKN cigs at 2.5 to 3.5 kft will continue to
exist over northern MI tonight. Interior or low lying locations
that have periods of SKC will likely see brief BR (terminals
include KCIU/KPLN/KMBL). Low (but non zero) chances for BR
becoming FG. N/NE winds will diminish after 01Z, becoming AOB
10kts and VRB. Skies will begin to lift and scatter after 14Z
Friday becoming VFR, with winds remaining AOB 10kts (occasional
G10 - 15kts at KAPN after 18Z).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ031.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for LHZ348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     342-344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ELD