526
FXUS63 KAPX 131811
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
211 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing shower/storm chances this weekend, especially Saturday
  night.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Upper ridge currently extending through the Plains with downstream
west/northwest flow aloft across the Great Lakes. Convective
complexes continue to ride along the primary instability axis
to our south and west. The upper ridge will gradually shift east
into this weekend, deamplifying a bit as a shortwave trough
moves through. Upper ridge will flex again to our west early
next week, with northwest flow resuming over the Great Lakes.

Fairly benign weather through Friday with increasing influence of
drier and more stable air, as high pressure builds in from the
northwest.  A small chance of an early evening shower over northeast
lower along a lake breeze boundary, but any activity would be
isolated and dissipate quickly.  Some patchy fog again tonight,
although decreasing soil moisture and an overall drier atmosphere
should limit the extent.  Quiet weather continues on Friday, despite
another shortwave passing to our east, with limited moisture making
any shower development difficult.

Unsettled weather still in store for the weekend, although more
recent model runs are further south with the shortwave energy
and surface reflection. Although deeper moisture on the backside
of departing high pressure will push toward the area on
Saturday, it will initially have to fight a relatively dry
airmass. Eventually, the deeper moisture (PWATs 200% of normal)
will win out and surge northward into our area Saturday night
into early Sunday, which is when we will see the best chance of
precipitation. The trends have been drier overall in recent
model runs and the heavy rain threat looks to be focusing more
over central/southern Michigan. Unfortunately, this could keep
much needed steadier rains out of northern Michigan. Cold front
sweeps across the area by later Sunday with deep layer drying.

Additional shortwave energy in fast moving northwest upper flow will
bring unsettled weather and shower chances back to the area for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures a little cooler from Sunday into
early next week, although still comfortable 70s for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Primarily VFR expected today. Low chance for a SHRA or VCTS this
afternoon; most likely shot at SHRA is near APN on the lake breeze.
Otherwise, wonder if anything will develop at MBL or perhaps TVC on
the edge of the rain to our southwest, where there is a bit more
instability present despite mid-level clouds, but have left this out
of tafs for now given low confidence. Will need to watch for fog
again tonight, especially at MBL but possibly at PLN and other
sites. Light/vrb winds with lake breezes this afternoon and land
breezes tonight...with hints of prevailing northerly flow starting
Friday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...FEF