083
FXUS63 KAPX 310756
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
356 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming temperatures through the remainder of the
  holiday weekend.

- Rain chances return midweek with another shot of cooler temperatures
  expected Thursday - Friday (along with continued showery
  conditions).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

High pressure holds steady across the region today, keeping
things quiet and comfortable. We`ll start the day with another
cool morning, with lows mostly in the 40s with select locations
in the upper 30s. Some patchy fog has also been observed across
portions of the Northwoods and is expected to burn off as the
sun rises.

Plenty of sunshine is expected through the day, though cumulus
clouds will develop during the afternoon. Temperatures will
respond nicely with highs pushing into the mid and upper 70s.
With lake breeze formation expected, can`t completely rule out a
stray shower popping up, but moisture is just too limited to
expect much of anything. Another calm and mostly clear night is
on tap tonight with lows mainly back down into the 40s (typical
cooler locations in the upper 30s) across northern Lower and 50s
across eastern Upper. Patchy fog development tonight into
Monday morning is possible once again, especially for any
locations that might receive a pop-up shower today.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

High pressure slowly drifts off to the east heading into next
week, but it will still remain the dominant feature for our
sensible weather Monday and Tuesday...Meaning plenty of dry,
quiet weather to start September with highs ranging from the mid
70s to near 80. Once again, there may be just enough
convergence along lake breezes to try and spark isolated showers
each afternoon, but with the profile being so dry overhead, not
expecting much and most areas should remain dry.

Bigger pattern changes arrive midweek as a strong upper-level
trough digs out of Canada and drags its attendant cold front
through the Great Lakes. This will bring a better chance for
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms later Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The best window for more widespread rain looks to be
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Much cooler air follows behind
the front for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will likely
struggle to get out of the 50s to perhaps near 60 Thursday, with
Friday only slightly milder. Lingering moisture and a favorable
thermal gradient over the lakes looks to hold onto scattered
lake effect showers through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Patchy FG/BR is expected to develop in the next several hours across
portions of northern Michigan. As previous forecaster discussed,
medium to high chances for VSBY reductions at CIU, PLN, and MBL
between 06Z-12Z, including periodic drops to IFR/LIFR. Low chances
for these conditions at TVC and APN. FG/BR is expected to dissipate
for most areas by 12Z-13Z, leaving VFR conditions in place through
the remainder of the issuance period. FEW/SCT cu w/ bases around 4-
5kft expected this afternoon. Light and variable winds today will
allow for lake breeze formation to push inland from all lakeshores
this afternoon and early evening before going calm again
tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC