319
FXUS63 KAPX 231112
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
712 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy, showery, and cool conditions today into Monday...a rumble
of thunder not impossible

- High swim risks today and possibly into Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Ridge axis stretching from the SW US bookended by sharp
troughs....one over the PacNW, and another stretching from Hudson
Bay to a lobe of PV over central Ontario, down through the Great
Lakes and down into the Carolinas...with Bermuda high well off the
coast. 100kt upper jet snaking through the flow, particularly on
either side of the eastern US trough axis. Deep moisture that aided
in yesterday`s localized 2-4in rainfall now exiting stage right into
New England and eastern Canada, along/ahead of an occluded surface
low on the north edge of Georgian Bay as of 0z; surface cold front
with this drapes to the Southern Plains and back up the lee side of
the Rockies, where mid/upper level return flow from the SW US aids
in convective activity. PV max over Ontario has some associated weak
stability aloft with seasonably cool 850mb temps around 4C beneath
it...with strengthening (20-30kt) N/NNW low-level flow poised to
advect this air into the Upper Great Lakes; the harbinger of this is
a surface cold front draped from the Canadian border toward
Whitefish Point and up to James Bay as of 0z. Warm advection already
taking shape across the central Canadian Prairies with 1022mb
surface high focused over Manitoba/MN.

PV max over central Ontario to track SSE across the area
today...lending to a strengthening of low pressure near and
northeast of Georgian Bay. Thus, expect strong NW/NNW flow over the
area today, slowly waning with time into Monday, though we will
still remain under cyclonic low-level flow until high pressure
finally builds into the Upper Great Lakes by Monday night/Tuesday.
Next system, that current PacNW system, will track across southern
Canada and lend its warm advective influence to the Upper MS Valley
as early as Tuesday...and track into our area going into Wednesday,
bringing us the next shot at unsettled weather. Signals point toward
troughing attempting to settle into the eastern US again for the
latter half of the work week...while troughing over the West Coast
tries to squash the western ridge altogether...potentially resulting
in zonal flow across the northern CONUS...and perhaps a blocking
ridge setting up over northern Canada?

FORECAST DETAILS...

Winds/beach hazards today/tonight... Strongest portion of the
pressure gradient may remain to our north/northeast, which would
limit the winds here...but expect sustained winds 10-20mph will
remain likely, especially for the EUP and NE Lower, right on into
Monday morning, tapering through the day as the low pulls away.
Prevailing direction should be NW to NNW through the period, but
should fluctuate back and forth in this general portion of the wind
rose depending on the passage of perturbations/PV maxima through the
day (current timing on the main PV max is for it to drop through
late morning into the afternoon). Winds aloft still don`t look
overly impressive (generally 20-30kts from 925 to 850mb) for much of
the day, but may strengthen above 30kts for a period this
evening/tonight before diminishing with time Monday. Suspect gusts
will largely reflect this idea, and still don`t have a lot of
confidence in achieving persistent gales...but best shot at this
would likely be over Whitefish Bay, northern Lake Huron, and perhaps
also near the tip of Grand Traverse Bay where there could be some
channeling of winds. Nonetheless...gusty winds today will result in
dangerous waves and currents, and high swim risks across most
beaches.

Showers/storms today into Monday...Potent pv max diving in, combined
with some signals for weaker stability aloft, could indicate some
potential for more vigorous convection and perhaps small hail along
with lightning. With overlake instability as a player, wouldn`t be
impossible to see convection end up deeper/more vigorous, though
inversion heights should be around 700mb/9-10kft, which could put a
cap on things...but do wonder if the 18-22C lake surface temps will
try to overcome that. With a little better deep layer shear in the
region today...suppose there is a non-zero chance everything could
come together just perfectly to produce some spicier storms...but
not a sure bet by any means. If anything were to get a little spicy,
would expect it would be similar to yesterday`s scattered pop-up
convection with primarily gusty winds as the concern.

Some deeper moisture wraps around into the region toward evening
from the northeast...likely some kind of wraparound/trowal-ish
feature related to the departing surface low. Thus, suspect this
would be a wad of somewhat more warm-advective stratiform rain
and/or drizzle. Do wonder if this could result in a swath of higher
QPF, particularly with signals for pwats to jump back above 1in...
but also think the bulk of, if not most of this, will remain
offshore...given some question as to how far back to the east the
moisture will wrap. (Not to mention subsidence should be increasing
with time tonight into Monday.) Guidance soundings also suggest the
idea of stratiform rain/drizzle, noting moist but mostly stable
thermal profiles, which could also limit QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Low clouds this morning leading to MVFR at most terminals.
Clouds will linger for the next couple hours, but will improve
to mostly VFR by 15z. Northwest winds will quickly strengthen to
15kts with frequent gusts up to 25kts. Chances for VCSH near
some terminals. MVFR ceilings move in over KAPN/KCIU/KPLN after
00z with chances for -RA. Winds gradually diminish through the
end of the period. Very low chances for TS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ016-018-
     020-021-024-025-031-098-099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LHZ346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for LHZ347-348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for LMZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...ELD