935
FXUS63 KAPX 262258
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
658 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler/near normal temperatures continue through Tuesday. Above
  normal temperatures return Wednesday through the weekend.

- Shower chances return late Wednesday night - Thursday, and
  perhaps again over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, northern MI is
sandwiched between upper ridging over the southeast states and
closed low pressure centered over far northern Quebec. Last night`s
cold front now situated to our south...draped from NE eastward
through central IL into far southern MI/Ohio Valley. Meanwhile,
~1037mb sfc high pressure centered near the Manitoba/Ontario border
will drift southeast across Ontario through Tuesday while a mid-
level shortwave treks across the northern Plains/upper MS Valley. As
that wave continues to depart into Ontario/Quebec on Wednesday, the
surface boundary to our south will lift north as a warm front
setting the stage for another round of above normal temperatures
across northern MI. Next chance for rain holds off until late
Wednesday night - Thursday as another area of low pressure treks by
to our north, dragging a cold front across the area locally.
Additional shower chances may present themselves at times over the
Halloween weekend, but with a wide envelope of solutions possible at
this time with respect to coverage/timing.

Forecast Details: Not a whole lot of sensible weather to speak of
through midweek. The only possible blemish to this arrives late
tonight into Tuesday morning, primarily across far northwest lower
into the eastern U.P., as that upstream wave passing by to our west
may be just enough to kick off a few isentropically driven showers
locally, although the vast majority will remain well off to our
west. Otherwise, cooler/near-normal temperatures expected Tuesday
with highs ranging from the upper 40s far north and through the 50s
over northern lower.

Another warm up for Wednesday under partial sunshine. Latest trends
favor high temperatures spanning the 60s area-wide with a few lower
70s possible. This places at least a handful of climate sites within
a few degrees of daily records (ANJ, PLN, GLR, HTL).  While Thursday
- Sunday high temperatures will be a touch cooler than Wednesday,
above normal temperatures are expected to continue -- generally
ranging from the mid-upper 50s far north and through the 60s south.

Shower chances return late Wednesday night into Thursday as a cold
front crosses northern MI. Coverage/intensity of these showers
looking less and less impressive with time, but still will be the
time frame that features the highest precip chances over the next
week. Looking toward Halloween, above normal temperatures mentioned
above expected. Shower chances may return late in the day, but lots
of spatial/temporal uncertainty continue.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 657 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Largely VFR. Winds to taper tonight, flipping E toward daybreak,
NNE at CIU. May need to watch for BR at MBL... along with APN,
PLN, and perhaps CIU pending influence of any Lake Huron marine
layer induced fog banks drifting inland with increasing E to SE
flow into Tuesday morning. Guidance remains pessimistic on this
manner (BR/FG) at this point. Aforementioned SE winds
persistent at 10-15kts sustained, perhaps occasionally gusting
to almost 20kts at TVC and MBL.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJG
AVIATION...HAD