270
FXUS63 KAPX 290015
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
815 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy/ areas of fog tonight into Tuesday morning.

- Dry and warming temperatures through Tuesday with rain
  chances returning late Tuesday night - Thursday.

- Cooler temperatures return midweek along with dry weather as
  we head into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Quiet and dry weather remains the story through Tuesday as the
surface high gradually shifts east and return flow develops.
Mostly sunny skies and southwest winds will help temperatures
climb into the 70s Tuesday, with some areas potentially reaching
the upper 70s. Despite the warmer afternoons, overnight
temperatures will continue to fall back into the 40s. Patchy/
areas of fog look likely late tonight into Tuesday morning,
particularly across interior locations.

The pattern begins to change Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
northern-stream wave moves into the Great Lakes and pulls deeper
moisture northward. Shower chances will increase late Tuesday
night into Wednesday spreading west to east, with the better
chances coming late Wednesday into Thursday as the wave and
associated boundary track through. The system is currently
favored to pass through primarily during the nighttime hours,
while relatively dry low and mid-levels should limit how
efficiently precipitation reaches the ground, especially farther
east. Northwest Lower and eastern Upper appear to have the
better opportunity for measurable rainfall, with guidance
suggesting medium chances (50 to 70 percent) for at least 0.50",
and low to medium chances (30 to 60 percent) for locally higher
amounts around 1" possible mainly along the shoreline of Lake
Michigan. Lesser amounts are expected the farther east one goes.

The midweek wave then gradually departs Thursday night into
Friday, allowing the pattern to turn quieter once again.
Temperatures will trend cooler behind the system, with highs
settling back into the 60s and overnight lows generally in the
40s or cooler through the weekend. Some lingering low-end shower
chances could continue into Friday, but with high pressure
building back in, ample dry time is expected and looks to
continue as we head into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 814 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Primary aviation concern will be the potential for dense fog
development tonight into Tuesday morning. Clear skies and calm winds
will allow for efficient radiational cooling. With better low-level
moisture in place compared to previous nights, higher confidence
exists in more widespread FG/BR development overnight. Most likely
TAF sites to see drops to 1/4SM or less at times later
tonight/Tuesday morning will be CIU, PLN, and MBL. VSBY restrictions
will still be possible at APN and TVC, but lower confidence
currently exists at these locations. After FG/BR dissipates Tuesday
morning, VFR conditions are anticipated across northern Michigan
through the end of the issuance period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...DJC