569
FXUS63 KAPX 070505
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
105 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog near Lake Michgian coast, along the St. Mary`s
  River, and in and around Whitefish Bay this morning

- Warm and mild conditions today, with chances for elevated
  fire danger Monday

- Shower and storm chances return Tuesday, along with hot and
  humid weather lingering through the end of the work week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Mostly clear skies this morning, with some stratus over the marine
areas (Lk MI, Whitefish Bay, St. Mary`s River, and Lk Huron). This
stratus will continue to develop and creep near the coastal areas of
Lk MI as well as move over larger areas of eastern upper. Patchy fog
will be seen over some of these spots, as well as some interior
areas due to radiational cooling and lingering near surface moisture
(Tds remain in the mid to high 50s). Some spots could see
visibilities as low as 1 SM or less, and the dense fog could come up
quick due to the patchy nature.

Surface high pressure and an upper level ridge will dominate the
area today, resulting in light winds and mild temperatures. General
winds will be easterly, however the lake breeze will likely
influence wind direction over NW lower and eastern upper.
Temperatures over the lee slopes of NW lower will see temperatures a
couple degrees warmer due to the light downsloping. During this
time, an upper trough is making its way northward over the central
plains.

Monday, this upper trough will carry deep Gulf moisture advection
towards the Great Lake region. Before that moisture arrives,
southeast winds will allow for the drier CAN air to continue
influencing northern MI through Monday afternoon. Southeast winds
will strengthen to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 15 to 20 mph (lower
confidence in consistent +25 mph). Elevated fire danger will be
possible Monday afternoon as humidity values fall into the mid 20s
to mid 30s percent range. At this time, the environment looks to be
on the marginal side for fire danger as wind gusts will likely be
more occasional.

Late Monday into Tuesday, the upper wave moves over northern MI and
brings shower and storms chances with it. There is high confidence
that deep moisture will reach northern MI, as 90% chances for at
least 1.5" PWATs up to the bridge exists Tuesday afternoon. Enough
background forcing and dynamical assistance will likely be present
to generate widespread light rain with embedded showers as the upper
wave approaches Monday night. Little instability is present
initially, which leads to lower chances for thunder with this intial
surge. As the wave moves overhead Tuesday, better instability
appears, resulting scattered to widespread shower and storm chances
during the day on Tuesday. Intial soundings show largely skinny
CAPE, which checks with the abundant moisture present. Some guidance
is hinting at drying in the mid to higher levels of the atmosphere,
which could result in some smaller hail. Gusty outflow winds will
also be a possibility, however a LLJ is lacking over northern MI
during this time. Heavy rain will be the primary hazard with storms
on Tuesday. Localized flooding will be possible, however storms will
be moving and that should curb widespread flooding concerns.

Starting Wednesday, the moisture remains but a hot airmass moves
overhead. 850C temps approach 20C Wednesday afternoon with surface
dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. Conditions will likely feel
hot (apparent temperatures will approach the upper 90s for some
spots), however breezy southwest winds and showers/storms will be
present as well. This will make the overall temperature
forecast a difficult one, nonetheless it will feel hot.
Widespread moderate to major HeatRisk exist for Wednesday.
Widespread Moderate HeatRisk on Thursday with a shift of the
focus of major heat to over parts of NE lower. This shift is due
to a larger upper trough approaching and progressing that
airmass to the east. Shower and storm chances continue into
Thursday as well. Compounding hazards become possible with days
like Wednesday and Thursday, storms could result in local power
outages which would take out air conditioning. Overnight
temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday remain warm,
generally dipping into the mid to high 60s. Then a repeat of the
heat Thursday, especailly for NE lower. Initial soundings do
support the chances for stronger storms Wednesday and Thursday,
with very healthy instability. Shear profiles are on the weaker
side, but there is some (and this could change as we get
closer).

A drier and cooler airmass builds in Friday and will linger through
the weekend. Details on exact timing of when this drier and cooler
air move in are subject to change, as there are lot of moving parts
before that.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 758 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Areas of fog develop tonight, focused in areas closer to Lake
Michigan. Given the relatively dry soil moistures, fairly low
confidence in how widespread the fog will be or how low the
visibility. But there is potential for a period of IFR or even
LIFR conditions. Any FG/low cloud will clear out quickly Sunday
morning with dry conditions persisting. East to northeast winds
expected for most on Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELD
AVIATION...JK