772
FXUS63 KAPX 061828
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
228 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moisture increases Tuesday into early Wednesday with showers and
  embedded storms.

- Gusty winds expected on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

High pressure dominates tonight into Monday with tranquil weather
and a beautiful day expected for the Mackinac Bridge Walk. Only
weather feature will be a few areas of fog tonight, quickly
dissipating after sunrise.

Sfc high pressure begins to slide east later Monday, as ridging
aloft slides overhead by early Tuesday consequent of approaching
PacNW energy ejecting into the Plains. Initial batch of warm and
moisture advection expected on Tuesday, focusing across the E UP and
adjacent areas, spreading south with time later Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Moisture is expected to be quite anomalous, and so a wetting
rain is possible given the atmospheric variables and mechanisms
remain as progged. Unclear how convective some of this activity will
be or how much of the instability will be utilized, which will
directly correlate with rain rates. Nevertheless, current forecast
has modest to healthy rains overspreading the region Tuesday night.
Shower chances remain into the early portions of Wednesday most
likely, although appears low level moisture hangs around through
much of the day with dewpoints in the 60s, with increasingly windy
conditions.

In addition to the precipitation chances, combination of sfc high
pressure sliding off to the east and approaching low pressure mid
week will result in a tightening pressure gradient and increasing
winds aloft. Consequently, sfc winds will increase, with breezy
southwest to west winds on Wednesday. Current progged soundings from
GFS bufkit show ~20-30KTs of momentum transfer, resulting in 25 to
35 mph wind gusts on Wednesday.

Cool advection behind this system will knock down temperatures
across the region some 10 degrees or so, although not too far off
from climo norms. Temps will be in the mid to upper 60s across the E
UP and interior northern lower with low 70s in spots. Breezy
conditions are expected as well. Friday will be beautiful with temps
in the 70s and plenty of sun.

Interesting pattern upcoming in the extended this weekend and
beyond. Models hinting at several areas of troughing, one to the
north across Canada and one potentially digging somewhere across the
Plains. Both ECMWF and GFS suggest corridor of moisture advects
northward with the potential for rounds of rain. Uncertainty is
quite high though, with some low probs (10-20%) for 0.5" of rain
through the weekend and NBM precip probs at 30-40%. Meanwhile,
deterministic guidance is quite bullish across northern Michigan and
the adjacent Upper Midwest in regards to rain/storms. We`ll have to
see how all these pieces play together in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Afternoon SCT and FEW Cu field will dissipate this evening,
providing mainly clear skies overnight with high level clouds
building from the west. Mainly VFR conditions are expected
throughout the TAF period aside from some patchy BR development
overnight at KCIU, KAPN, KPLN, and KMBL dropping VSBY`s to MVFR and
potentially IFR categories. Winds remain light with continuously
variable directions tonight before turning to the south to southeast
Monday afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...SJC