404
FXUS63 KAPX 061836
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
236 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/freeze concerns continue with persistent cool weather

- Small precip chances at times, especially this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Upper low will continue to spin over the ne Canada/Hudson Bay
region. This will result in persistent nw flow aloft into the
northern Great Lakes, and will keep our heights suppressed.
Cooler than normal wx will last thru and beyond the next week.

Pretty extensive cu field in northern lower MI this afternoon,
except near Lake MI. A stratocu overcast in eastern upper MI has not
thinned at all (and has been very poorly handled by near-term
guidance). Clearing in northern lower MI tonight may not be
straightforward, with patchy remnant stratocu expected to again
push across the area tonight from the west this evening/early
overnight. Skies should at least partially clear late overnight.
Favored bias-corrected gridded temp guidance tonight has lows
tonight very near, or slightly colder than, last night. Pretty
straightforward to issue a freeze warning for at least the bulk
of the area again. Have in fact already issued for all of
northern lower. Even last night, coop sites near Gladwin and
Standish dropped to 32f, and expect tonight to be as cold or
colder. And favored gridded guidance has shifted 30-32f temps
closer to Lake MI, west of TC.

Stronger diurnal heating should be realized on Thursday compared to
today, at least in the morning. Substantial cu will develop again by
midday. An incoming shortwave, and associated cooler temps aloft,
will result in steeper mid-level rates. There may be enough
instability/local forcing to develop a few showers, especially in
eastern upper MI (along a lake breeze convergence boundary), but
also in ne lower MI (where a Lake Huron lake breeze will try to
fight onshore). That instability fades Thursday evening. Next chance
for rain is late Friday night into Sunday morning, highest on
Saturday. A more amplified shortwave will drive into the northern
lakes late Saturday.

After similar max temps tomorrow, we rebound a bit for Friday and
especially Saturday (highs in the low 50s to mid 60s). Max temps
will retreat somewhat for Sunday into early next week. Low temps
will eventually climb mostly above freezing on Friday and Saturday
nights, but that looks temporary. Additional frost/freeze headlines
are expected on Thursday night, and further ones may be needed
Sunday night and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR condtions expected to continue through the issuance period.
Occasionally breezy west-northwest winds (up to ~25 knots) will
continue through this afternoon before winds become calm this
evening through tonight. Winds become breezy once again Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for
     MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-098-099.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...NSC