530
FXUS63 KAPX 060346
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1146 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances increase later Tuesday into Wednesday.
  Winds increase as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

On the front edge of a ridge tonight, and back edge of upper trough
over New England. Consequently, high pressure will be in control,
drifting across the Canadian Shield into the morning. Chance
for some late fog tonight, mainly across eastern upper
potentially leaking down into Pellston and vicinity, and then
across the Interior near West Branch and vicinity. Overall
should be a brief concern during an otherwise calm and chilly
night.

High pressure aloft continues to build over northern Michigan early
next week with raising heights, keeping the seasonably warm
conditions around. At the same time, conglomerate of energy ejects
out of the PacNW into the N Plains around Tuesday. Response will be
a sub 1000 mb low pressure system drawing an anomalous corridor of
moisture (+3.0 sigma PWs) northward into the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes Region later-ish Tuesday into Wednesday.

Warm, moist advection later Tuesday into Wednesday combined
with an approaching frontal boundary will lead to showers and
embedded thunderstorms. Corridor of modest instability will aid
in locally higher rainfall rates, especially given the anomalous
column moisture. That being said, current ENS guidance has a
relatively low probability for rain over 0.5", highest probs
favoring the E UP. Nevertheless, widespread precip chances
appear likely during this time frame.

In addition to the precipitation chances, combination of sfc high
pressure sliding off to the east and approaching low pressure mid
week will result in a tightening pressure gradient and increasing
winds aloft. Consequently, sfc winds will increase, with breezy
southwest to west winds on Wednesday, with gusts 30+ mph currently
in the forecast.

Cooler airmass filters in behind the mid week system, with Thursday
being the coolest day. Few showers will be possible as well as a
short wave dives across N MI. Tranquil for at least a day or two
before the next system/energy influences the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1146 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

A touch of fog late tonight at the more fog-prone locales,
including CIU/PLN/MBL. Otherwise very quiet VFR TAFs, with light
winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JLD
AVIATION...JZ