493
FXUS63 KAPX 290745
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
345 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well below normal temperatures through tonight with frost
  concerns, especially across interior northern Lower.

- Gradual warming trend and dry conditions for Labor Day
  Weekend into early next week.

- Rain chances return mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Broad roughing over the Great Lakes will keep northern Michigan
locked in a much cooler than normal airmass through today.
Despite plenty of sunshine developing through the day, the cold
pool aloft will hold surface temperatures below late summer
normals, with afternoon highs only making it into the low to mid
60s. Winds will be lighter than yesterday, but still carry a
northerly component, keeping conditions feeling cooler. Skies
remain generally clear through tonight as high pressure slides
overhead, providing an ideal setup for radiational cooling with
calm winds and dry air. This will allow temperatures to drop
quickly after sunset, with widespread 40s expected and colder
interior pockets slipping into the 30s. Some of the typical cold
locations, particularly across northern Lower, may even dip
into the mid to low 30s. Patchy frost continues to be a
potential concern for tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

High pressure will remain the dominant feature through the
holiday weekend, ensuring a prolonged stretch of quiet and
increasingly pleasant weather. Saturday morning will start off
chilly with 30s and 40s common, but sunshine and a moderating
airmass will push afternoon highs back into the low 70s. Sunday
and Labor Day (Monday) will feature highs well into the 70s to
near 80 under mostly sunny skies and light winds. Guidance hints
at isolated showers along lake breeze boundaries Sunday and
Monday, but with limited moisture dry conditions are expected to
prevail. Tuesday maintains the same theme- warm, dry and sunny,
with highs pushing into the upper 70s to low 80s. By midweek
next week, confidence levels lower as guidance remains
consistent in digging a shortwave and its attendant surface cold
front southeast from Canada. This looks to bring the next
chance for showers and another push of colder air. Timing and
strength of this system will need to be refined, but the middle
of next week does look to signal the end of the otherwise very
quiet and pleasant holiday stretch.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the issuance
period across northern Michigan. The exception will be patchy FG/BR
tonight potentially impacting TAF sites for a time during the early
morning hours. Otherwise, light north winds between 5-10 kts are
expected today. BKN/SCT low clouds ~3-4kft are expected to linger a
cross parts of the area through much of the morning and early
afternoon with mid-cloud overtop, eventually clearing later in the
day.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC