156
FXUS63 KAPX 270232
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1032 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Still monitoring threat for isolated to scattered severe
thunderstorms later tonight into Monday

- Turning less active and a bit cooler mid-week

- Seasonable temperatures with some additional rain chances to end
the period

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

00Z surface analysis shows Michigan in between two frontal
boundaries...one across Lake Superior attached to a 1005mb frontal
wave north of the Keweenaw.  A warm front stretches southeast from a
1002mb low along the North Dakota/Minnesota border...across
Wisconsin/Illinois and into the Ohio Valley.  Broad area of 80+ dew
points on the warm side of this latter boundary...as far east as
southwest Wisconsin and western Illinois.  Several small
thunderstorm clusters have been forming north of the former boundary
across northeast Minnesota/northwest Ontario and Lake Superior early
this evening...with a zone of low level temperature/theta-e
advection/moisture convergence and likely aided by small
disturbances within an elongated cyclonic shear axis of a 90+ jet
across northern Minnesota/Wisconsin/ Lower Michigan.  Mid/high clouds
spreading southeast across the forecast area this evening...no signs
of convection across the forecast area thus far though 00Z APX
sounding had an MLCAPE of nearly 1700J/kg with minimal inhibition.
But background subsidence likely helping keeping things in check for
the time being.

So for now just the waiting game...either for convection developing
upstream to arrive...(which is probably not going to be until late
and would most likely affect parts of northwest Lower)...or for some
closer in development.Again there is a good bit of instability
around that just needs a trigger though forcing expected to improve
through the night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Northern Michigan remains squarely centered between Intermountain
West/High Plains upper level ridge/heat dome and northeast NOAM
upper level troughing. Result is persistent northwest flow aloft,
with periodic embedded shortwave troughs/upper jet speed maxes
crossing the region. And, right on cue, next wave set to drop across
our area later tonight into Monday, perhaps helping drive some
convective development as attendant forcing interacts with a
marginally favorable thermodynamic environment.

Above pattern looks to remain remarkably persistent heading through
this week into next weekend, keeping our airmasses of Canadian
origin and locking all real heat well to our west.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Addressing convective evolution and potential for severe
thunderstorms later tonight and Monday. Temperature trends and
additional late week shower chances take secondary focus.

Details:

Just your typical northern Michigan challenging convective forecast
tonight and Monday. Confidence on how everything unfolds remains
remarkably low. Definitely some concerns on just how extensive and
strong any showers/storms will be tonight and Monday, with at least
some hints best upper jet forcing remains northeast and detached
from best thermodynamic environment across the western Great Lakes.
Definitely could see a scenario were deep convection developing well
to our northwest this afternoon rides surface based instability
gradient southeast across eastern Wisconsin into southern Lake
Michigan later this evening into the overnight...with perhaps some
additional less organized showers/storms firing off to our northeast
where upper jet forcing is maximized. Pattern recognition/conceptual
models definitely support this idea as well...suggesting any
shower/storm activity across our area tonight remains both less
organized and intense than earlier anticipated. Simple best course
of action is to continue to monitor radar trends heading through
this evening. Area remains in marginal to slight risk wording for
severe weather from SPC...although they themselves mention
considerable uncertainty in placement of best juxtaposition of
enhanced convective utilizing shear and deepest instability. If
those features can become better juxtaposed across our area then
definitely could see some gusty wind potential with any more
organized convective clusters tonight.

And (unfortunately so) what transpires tonight will likely have
plenty to say on how Monday unfolds. Uncertainty is way too high to
offer any real specificity. With that said, could definitely see a
scenario were a south diving convective complex to our west tonight
significantly delays or even prevents any real organized convective
development across our area Monday...with primary convective
development along congealed cold pool forcing/differential heating
boundaries to our west and southwest (this despite what appears to
be better overhead deep layer forcing from approaching shortwave and
favorable placement of upper jet forcing). Forcing should
theoretically be enough to drive at least some convection across our
area, although again exact organization will likely be significantly
tied to how things unfold tonight. Definitely something to monitor
as better deep forcing does support some severe potential...as
evident by SPC slight risk wording across all of our forecast area.

Forcing steadily departs Monday night, with large area of slow
moving surface high pressure expected to bring dry and near
seasonable temperatures Tuesday through Thursday (although could see
some rather chilly overnight lows). Will need to watch for
additional southeast diving energy to end the week on into the
weekend to drive additional shower/storm chances. Current trends
support typical end of July/early August high temperatures in the
70s and 80s to end the week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Chances for SHRA/TSRA increasing. An initial cluster of
showers/storms over eastern Superior is likely to bring precip
to CIU late this evening/early overnight. CIU is also likely to
have MVFR perhaps IFR fog late in the overnight. PLN likely to
have showers in the vicinity overnight. Elsewhere, better
shower/storm chances are Monday afternoon. Significant, though
brief, restrictions are expected with any showers/storms.

Relatively light westerly breezes.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
DISCUSSION...MSB
AVIATION...JZ