274
FXUS63 KAPX 310647
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
247 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few showers this weekend (after trick-or-treating) with slowly
  warming temps.

- Increasing rain chances begins Monday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Happy Halloween.

An unrelated note: daylight savings time ends tonight.

High pressure is crossing lower MI early this morning, moving
slowly ese-ward. Some areas of low lake effect cloud cover
linger over eastern upper and far ne lower MI. Thin cirrus is
also encroaching on southern areas. A chilly morning, but to
this point little in the way of fog.

Trailing behind the surface high, a 500mb shortwave ridge over
the northern plains will be moving over our heads Sunday
afternoon. Some troffing is butting into the ridge axis by then,
immediately trailing it. There are some convective-looking
elements on radar and satellite to our w, from WI westward.
Steepening mid-level lapse rates will attempt to generate some
light showers, though mostly just result in virga here. Still,
a few showers are possible after midnight tonight into Sunday
morning. This should provide minimal interruption to Halloween
plans.

Otherwise quiet Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Models are
a little faster today in starting to erode heights aloft later
Monday, in face of a strengthening low level jet and associated
theta-e advection. A chance of showers could reach nw lower MI
as soon as Monday afternoon. This is in advance of an evolving
upper low and strung-out surface low in the plains and
eventually MS Valley. Likely to categorical pops Monday night
into early Wednesday, with multiple rounds of showers expected.
No thunder currently, but some respectable rainfall regardless.

With at least some sporadic stream interactions next week, the
forecast gets less certain midweek and beyond. ECMWF is much
wetter, as low pressure now passes a bit to our south late in
the week. Others have a weaker system ejecting to our north,
with smaller precip chances.

Temps will remain above normal. We will be warming from today to
about Tuesday, then likely gradually cooling again after that.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1016 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Watching the potential for some MVFR producing lake clouds to
impact KAPN, KCIU, and KPLN for a time early this morning.
Otherwise, looking at primarily VFR conditions through the
period with some passing high and mid level clouds at times
(more mid level clouds at KTVC and KMBL this evening). Light
winds will continue.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...MSB