202
FXUS63 KAPX 141021
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
621 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic rain/thunderstorm chances, especially Monday through
  Wednesday

- Warm temperatures likely to return early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Troughing over the western US/PacNW...with sharp ridge over the
western Canadian Prairies...and broader ridge over the Desert SW. A
lollygagging shortwave in the flow over the Mid MS
Valley...with surface reflection over MO and a BCZ extending
through the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. Hudson Bay high
pressure to our northeast...but PV crossing through Ontario is
dirtying the southern edge of the high...and confluence zone
aloft over the Upper Great Lakes with some continued shower
activity across the region as a result. Most activity remains
rather high-based across northern Michigan, with low-level NE/E
flow helping feed slightly drier air in from Canada.

Heights slowly rise today...with generally quieter weather overhead
compared to yesterday...though some showers should try to move back
in during the afternoon into tonight as upstream activity tries to
move into the region...though not sure how well it will actually
make it in here, given the low-level dry air will be persistent.
Best rain chances, if any at all, will be across NW Lower...and will
expect further improvements into Sunday, especially in the
temperature category, as winds turn more southerly with time,
allowing for increasingly warm, moist, and therefore, unstable air
to maneuver toward the Great Lakes. Waves cresting the upstream
ridge will set up the potential for periods of showers and
thunderstorms through the week...and think there is some
potential for a boundary to stall in our region for midweek as
upper level system tries to become organized to our
west/southwest...keeping things unsettled, and perhaps breezy,
through at least the middle of the week. Beyond
this...increasing uncertainty in the pattern...with signals for
either a bit of a zonal flow or perhaps a strengthening ridge
axis to our west...both of which could lead to active weather
for the eastern US/Midwest.

Short Term Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends through tonight... Think today will end up being
very similar to yesterday, with warmest temps across southern
zones/southwest zones where cloud cover should be able to break up a
bit more. Perhaps a touch warmer overall, as there is a better
chance for more breaks in the clouds across more of the area
today...with high pressure trying to back into the region going into
tonight. Given this idea..suspect winds will be lighter
tonight...which, if we do remain clear, could lead to a cooler night
tonight (mid 40s or lower not out of the question, esp across NE
Lower)...though this latter idea is a bit more unclear (pun
intended).

Rain chances tonight...Setup is not greatest, but does show a little
promise for potential activity to ride down the upstream ridge into
the Great Lakes region. Attm...appears the more favorable trajectory
of this would be to our south/southwest, and current forecast
reflects this...though could be something to keep an eye on going
forward.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Rain/thunder chances through the period... First of these will
be Sunday night into Monday as a wave passes by to our
north...enhancing upstream theta-e advection across the Upper
Midwest. Think we may again need to keep an eye on that upstream
activity, particularly if it gets going a little further north
than tonight`s activity, as it would then have a better
trajectory (in theory) to make it into northern Lower. Moisture
will be on the increase for the early part of the week, which
should make things more unstable for us, potentially allowing
for some pop- up showers and storms across parts of the area
Monday.

Better thunderstorm threat appears to arrive late Monday night into
Tuesday and beyond...as the airmass become increasingly unstable,
combined with forcing from a PV max slipping across southern Canada.
Position of the boundary looks to be to our west to start the day,
which should allow moisture/instability to further increase...along
with warmer temps (pending cloud cover in the vicinity Tuesday,
which could keep temps cooler than currently forecast). Winds with
this system do not appear super strong attm, so amount of storm
organization is somewhat unclear attm, at least for our neck of the
woods. Attm...still looks like this SW-NE oriented boundary will
attempt to stall in the vicinity for midweek...as another system
develops along it long about Wednesday. This latter setup could very
well leave parts of the Upper Great Lakes open to multiple periods
of heavy/efficient rain...as it should become a focus for a) warm
advection precip along the boundary ahead of the developing low, and
b) deformation axis precip along/north of the low as it winds up.

Warm temperatures return Monday and Tuesday...incoming air mass
should be supportive of highs into the 80s through the early part of
the week, perhaps into Wednesday, pending the position of that
boundary. It will be increasingly humid as well, as the air mass
will also be supportive of dewpoints into the 60s. As briefly
mentioned above, still wonder if cloud cover from upstream
convection (or any upstream convection riding into our region) will
be able to diminish high temps either Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

VFR conditions will persist across northern Michigan through the
issuance period. Ongoing light rain showers are expected to diminish
over the next few hours this morning, making for rain-free weather
through tonight. BKN/SCT cloud cover with bases around 4-5kft
associated with aforementioned showers will likely hang around
across parts of the area through this afternoon. East winds between
5-10 kts are expected into this evening with lake breeze formation
pushing inland from Lake Michigan during the afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...DJC