038
FXUS63 KAPX 261347
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
947 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms return late today into tonight.

- Cooler with rain showers on Memorial Day.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

High pressure is departing across the eastern lakes, though
ridging extends back toward lower MI. Se surface winds will
continue to feed in relatively dry air. But return flow is
getting going aloft, north of a surface warm front in central IN
and northern OH. Thicker cirrus has pushed into nw lower MI,
though actual precip is only advancing on ne IL and se WI.

Cloud cover will thicken further, especially this afternoon.
Precip chances could approach MBL toward 5 pm, and Empire and
Lake City by 8 pm (by which time showers are likely near MBL).
Showers and a few TSRA will expand further into tonight. MuCape
values are unimpressive, maybe a few hundred j/kg, thru early
evening. Thunder chances are better later tonight.

Max temps in the 70s, 60s near Lk Huron.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-level shortwave ridging atop the
western Great Lakes at this early hour with shortwave troughing,
associated surface reflection and convection over the central Plains
and Missouri Valley. This shortwave energy will begin to enter into
the Great Lakes region through the day ahead. At the surface, high
pressure centered over Lake Huron will continue to trek east this
morning with southeasterly return flow developing locally. Low
pressure well to our southwest will make steady northeast progress
to northern IL/southern WI by 00z with a warm front expected to be
draped across southern Michigan. Northeastward progress continues
overnight with low pressure expected to be centered squarely
overhead by 12z Monday.

Forecast Details: Just mainly high clouds overhead through much
of this morning with increasing/thickening mid-high cloud
expected west to east across northern MI midday through the
afternoon. Southeasterly flow increases through the day with
afternoon gusts as high as 25 mph aiding to boost high
temperatures through the 70s area- wide -- warmest in
downsloping locales of northwest lower. Cooler at the immediate
coasts of course, especially near Lake Huron.

By 21-00z, return moisture finally able to materialize with PWs
progged to rise above 1.00" across far southwest portions of the
forecast area. This timing generally coinciding with initial shower
chances working their way into the area with those probabilities
highest from Northport-TVC-Gladwin and points southwest. Shower
chances continue to propel northeastward through the evening as
support continues to increase ahead of the aforementioned northward
moving warm front. PWs up near 1.50" overnight with numerous showers
expected over the majority of northern Michigan at one point or
another. Chance of some embedded thunder as well given fumes of
elevated instability. Better chances of thunder remain downstate
late this afternoon where better instability resides. Lows tonight
in the 50s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Low pressure system will likely be tracking in the vicinity of
northern Michigan through Monday with rain shower chances and breezy
conditions (although oddly still some discrepancies within operation
and ensemble guidance). Upper system and sfc low slowly drift off to
the northeast of the region Monday night, then shifts off to the
east into Tuesday. Little spoke of energy could keep some shower
chances alive on Tuesday. Quiet pattern mid to late week with
eventually height rises and warming temperatures. Perhaps a system
advects in from the center of the CONUS next weekend bringing the
chance for more rain.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Low pressure system will bring a chance for rain showery activity on
Monday despite slight discrepancies in model guidance. Modest rains
will be possible for some, especially northern areas along with
breezy conditions and cooler temperatures. Lingering energy aloft
likely results in continued shower chances on Tuesday, albeit even
more isolated/scattered and lighter in accumulation. Pressure
gradient remains modest thus breezy conditions will continue. Cooler
temperatures should linger on Wednesday due to northwest flow on the
backside of this system then ridging builds in later in the week
gradually warming temperatures back into the 70s. There is some
consensus that a system will be in the vicinity of the central CONUS
and move up into N MI sometime next weekend with the possibility of
showers, but that`s about all the details that can be given at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR through the day today with slowly increasing mid-high cloud,
most notably this afternoon. Southeast winds through the period,
breezy at times, will aid to draw in better moisture ahead of an
area of low pressure approaching from the southwest. Initial shower
chances arrive at MBL/TVC after 21z with the remaining terminals
seeing showers increase through the evening and overnight. Some
embedded thunder possible as well. Increasing probabilities (70-90%)
for MVFR CIGs after 04z with low probabilities (20-30%) for IFR CIGs
after 06z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Monday for LHZ345.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EDT Monday
     for LHZ346>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Monday for LMZ341-342.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MJG