091
FXUS63 KAPX 111629
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1129 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow continues through the day today, slowly waning
  in intensity and coverage.

- More lake effect/enhanced snow later Friday into the weekend.
  Blowing snow and significant visibility reductions possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Bowling ball of an upper low continues to move to the east through
the day today, from the Ontario/Quebec juxtaposition to the US
Northeast with northwest flow remaining. Sufficiently moist and cold
low level profiles will remain across northwest snow belts for
additional lake effect. Environment is characterized by relatively
shallow inversion heights, getting shallower with time, but lake
effect snow showers will continue. There will likely be some
momentum with the ongoing lake effect now (~7Z), so we`ll have to
see how robust the bands remain into the morning hours.
Nevertheless, the better low level convergence fades through the
day, coincident with the lowering BLHs. Thus, if all goes according
to plan, expect up to two additional inches of snow across northwest
snow belts, locally higher not out of the question in the vicinity
of Kalkaska/Antrim county. Winds decrease later in the day on
Thursday for most as pressure gradient relaxes.

Heading into the overnight, heights generally rise compared to the
previous 12-24 hours, with an inconsequential short wave diving to
the southeast across southern MI. A few weak and light snow showers
remain close to Lake Michigan, enough for a festive feel in the air.
But generally a continued relaxing of both the winds and
precipitation is expected into the overnight. Low temps dip into the
teens most locations, low 20s on Lake MI shoreline, single digits
for the colder spots across the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Day 2-3 (Friday - Saturday):

Winds shift to the southwest on Friday, out ahead of the next low
pressure system and frontal boundary. Vigorous upper low dives down
across northern MI later Friday into Saturday with plenty of cold
advection. Thus, lake enhanced snows can be expected later
Friday (beginning earlier for those southwest lake enhanced
zones within the vicinity of Lake Michigan), with lake effect
snow continuing through Saturday. Cold low level temps will mute
snow ratios/efficiency to some extent, but accumulating snows
and gusty winds are likely across a good chunk of northern MI.
The highest impacts Friday evening through Saturday evening from
blowing and accumulating snow (perhaps a broad 2-4"/3-6"),
along with significant visibility reductions, will be across
northwest lower MI. Secondarily, portions of Chippewa county.
Temperatures will be in the teens and single digits through the
day on Saturday.

Days 4-7 (Sunday - Wednesday):

Upper trough axis will likely be east of northern Michigan to start
Sunday, or in the process of moving to the east across the eastern
Great Lakes. Consequently, lake effect snows will continue through
the day with a component of NW to NNW snowbelts, with an emphasis on
the earlier portions of the day. The environment appears to become
increasingly unfavorable later in the day and thus the snow
dwindles, if only for a brief moment.

Heights rise heading into next week in response to extensive ridging
building over the central and western CONUS. Some of this will build
eastward with time next week, resulting in increasing temperatures.
For reference, the NBM/LREF suggest medium to high probabilities (40-
80%) for above freezing high temps by next Wednesday, so expect
a steady trend upwards in temperatures early next week. Still
will likely be unsettled weather (snow chances) early in the
week as well with a few quick moving short waves riding the east
side of the ridge into the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Bouncing between VFR and MVFR courtesy of passing snow showers
through the afternoon. Anticipating MVFR generally during snow
showers and marginal MVFR to IFR outside snow showers. Potential
for lower CIGs and VSBYs in any snow showers. Much of this
activity should taper this afternoon... with just NW lower sites
and CIU clinging to snow shower chances tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     MIZ021-026-027-033-034.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ348-
     349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...HAD