587
FXUS63 KAPX 181127
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
627 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Largely dry weather carrying past midweek with a slight
  warming trend.

- Next rain chances set for later Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 213 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Northern Michigan set to line up delicately in between a ridge axis
folding over the Great Lakes today, as a southern stream wave
currently over the central Plains chugs eastward into the Ohio
Valley through the forecast period. This wave will be forced south
of the region today... with stout 1022mb surface high over Manitoba
and NW Ontario ducking south and east into the Great Lakes by
tonight. Result will be an overpowering surge of drier air intruding
into the region... enough to prevent precipitation from occurring
across 99.9% of the CWA. Just enough moisture may be present to
force a light mixed rain / snow shower in Manistee this morning
into the afternoon, but current radar trends showcase an
unimpressive northward extent of the precipitation shield in
Wisconsin... so I`d be inclined to say even Manistee holds dry.
Despite the drier air in the low levels... clouds will be
prevalent today as a subtle slug of mid level moisture associated
with that Plains wave spreads into the region. Thicker cloud
cover likely holds on across the coasts as just enough marine
layer shenanigans remain... but even there, not anticipating
precipitation. Highs today in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

That`s a whole lot of words just to say it`ll be seasonable and
cloudy across the region, with some breaks of sun across interior
northern lower, but here we are. Now to tonight.

Surface high directly overhead will largely disperse clouds late
this afternoon into the evening (aside from the coasts, where land-
lake breezes likely permit continued cloud cover). As such, should
be a quality radiational cooling night as lows dip into the teens
across the interior cold spots, but likely settle well into the 20s
along most of the immediate coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Ridge axis set to hover overhead into midweek as a split flow regime
dominates the pattern across western NOAM, making for a convoluted
forecast. Will see two distinct features take aim at the Great Lakes
over the course of the the Thursday and Friday timeframe: a northern
stream wave progressing from the Canadian Prairies, and another
southern stream wave progressing from the southern Plains. Trends
are that these features fail to phase... so the result for the time
being looks to be a window of light rainfall from that northern
stream wave as it races through the Great Lakes on Thursday.
Moisture from this system will be quite unimpressive, so rainfall
will generally be quite light. That southern stream wave, on account
of a lack of phasing, will zip through the Ohio Valley and lower
Great Lakes and suppress any additional appreciable rainfall well
south and east of the Northwoods.

The cold frontal passage associated with this conglomeration of
features will be quite pitiful, so not anticipating a massive
cooldown. Some colder air aloft may try to support some additional
lake induced precipitation (rain or snow) Friday into Saturday, but
again, with meager moisture, not expecting anything earth-
shattering... with blended guidance not even really lighting up at
the idea. By the time the weekend comes to a close, we will be
warming back into the low-to-mid 40s as ridging quickly returns.
Guidance wants to try and bring another northern stream wave into
the region this upcoming Monday, which could point at the next
chances for rain... but with the trends regarding these northern
stream waves, I`d imagine this feature trends toward lighter
precipitation as well.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions at most terminals this morning. Light SN at KCIU
is currently leading to MVFR cigs, however this is not expected
to last longer than 14Z. Light winds currently driven by a land
breeze will continue to be light and VRB through the period.
Skies will eventually fill in to BKN-OVC AOA 10 kft as a system
passes to our south.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...ELD