436
FXUS63 KAPX 010838
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
338 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers/sprinkles today, esp EUP

- Rain returns Monday into at least midweek; potentially heavy at
times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Amplified but messy pattern across the CONUS attm. Broad ridging
over the bulk of the CONUS muddied by a bit of energy tracking ENE
into the Mid MS Valley with a plume of Gulf moisture along/ahead of
it across the Upper Midwest, with deeper moisture trying to creep
into the Upper Great Lakes amid a weak warm advection regime (GRB`s
0z/01 sounding with an anomalous pwat of 1.13in vs our somewhat
above normal 0.61in...and +8C air at 850mb creeping in from the
west). Best warm advection, though, remains to our north across
central/eastern Canada with more progressive northern stream (zonal
850mb jet around 40kts)...and to our south in the Mid MS Valley,
attendant to aforementioned muddying and negatively tilted energy,
which is driving some deeper convection in TN/MS as of 4z...though
there is a southerly LLJ over the central Plains. Upstream, potent
upper level jet traversing the flow from E Asia across the
Pacific...and cutoff energy along the West Coast starting to sharpen
up as a 120+kt upper jet exits the base of the trough over
SoCal...with abundant Pacific moisture transport into the SW US with
broad low pressure west of the MS River; surface boundary stretches
from northern CA eastward to the Dakotas. 1034mb surface high over
the Mid-Atlantic/New England, with surface ridging still hanging
onto our weather...for now. A few showers have made it to the
ground, though...with a bit of wet pavement at 4z and again at 7z.

Energy over the Mid MS Valley to continue to trek through the
flow...crossing our area today as longwave ridge axis otherwise
builds overhead. Troughing out west will be on the move given
Pacific energy shoving it along...resulting in amplified troughing
plowing into the central US early this week. This will drive surface
pressure falls across the MS Valley...and these appear to stick
around for a while as the upper troughing tries to get cutoff from
the flow over the Midwest/MS Valley. Strong jet in East Asia/Pacific
to keep sending energy eastward into North America through the
period...which suggests a progressive but messy pattern ahead for
the CONUS. Quite a bit of uncertainty in how this will evolve...but
there are some signals troughing could broadly try to hang on over
the area going into the second week of November, though perhaps not
overly cold troughing.

FORECAST DETAILS...

Rain chances linger today, especially north...Mid-level moisture
streams northward overhead today, and suspect this will keep skies a
bit on the cloudy side overall. Best low-level moisture plume will
continue to reside over the UP where there is better theta-e
advection in the low-levels, and will be slightly closer to northern
stream energy tracking nearby over Ontario this morning into early
afternoon. Otherwise, not much in the way of forcing with high
pressure still holding on. What`s left of the PV max as it becomes
embedded in the flow will track across the area later Sunday, and
would not be entirely surprised if this helped squeeze out a few
sprinkles/showers over the area during the late
afternoon/evening...but think most areas will stay quiet.

Rain chances return Monday and beyond, potentially heavy at times?
Warm advection looks to ramp back up Monday afternoon, particularly
to our west as that trough axis enters the Central Plains and drives
strong surface pressure falls out there as well...resulting in
strengthening southerly flow up through the MS Valley. Expect
increasing moisture through the column, particularly Monday night
into Tuesday as the LLJ takes its aim on the Upper Great Lakes.
Pwats likely jump up around or above 1.5in, which is +4-5 standard
deviations above the mean (i.e., highly anomalous). Combined with
the sharp trough and jet max to aid in synoptic forcing as a warm
front lifts into the area...definitely have concerns for heavy
rainfall during this timeframe. Not impossible the heaviest rain may
remain focused just to our west over the central UP, a little closer
to the PV maxima and better forcing...but certainly something that
will need to be monitored going forward, particularly noting that
the upper trough may be slow to move out, and could keep the threat
of active weather (i.e., heavy rain) in the region through at least
midweek. Noting signals for a deformation axis to hang out in the
area into the latter half of the week, especially if the trough
closes off into an upper low in our vicinity...think some portion of
the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest could end up with quite a bit of rain
by the time the week is all said and done. Attm...appears the best
shot for multiple rounds of rain to add up will be across the Yoop,
where the rain is rather desperately needed. Here, probabilistic
guidance suggests rainfall totals Monday night through Tuesday could
exceed an inch...though probabilities are much higher across the
Upper MS Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Primarily VFR conditions expected through today into this
evening under some passing mid level clouds. May see a few
light showers/sprinkles fall out of this mid cloud deck early on
this morning, but nothing impactful expected. Will still need to
watch for a period of MVFR cigs developing this morning across
KCIU. Not overly confident is this occurring...covering with
just tempo wording for now. Light winds will continue.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...FEF
AVIATION...MSB