Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
069
FNUS53 KAPX 031834
FWFAPX
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
Issued by National Weather Service Marquette MI
234 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
...Shower Chances Return Tonight...
.DISCUSSION...
Low pressure to traverse Lake Superior from west to east tonight, which will
bring the next rain chances for the region. The system looks to be rather
moisture starved, and thus anticipation is that the farther north one goes,
shower coverage will be highest north, and lowest toward Saginaw
Bay. Rainfall with this system does appear to be rather light, with under
0.10in of rain for most anticipated by the time the system departs Saturday
afternoon / evening. Given the increased system moisture, RHs will be on the
moist side Saturday (generall 55-65, lowest in NE lower). Coupled with recent
rains (particularly south), fire danger should remain low despite gusty SW
winds. Highs Sunday to top out in the 60s, perhaps near 70 in Saginaw Bay.
Mixing will be good through the day Sunday but will quickly taper by evening
once cooler air at the surface drums up an inversion. Cooler and somewhat
unsettled weather manifests to kick off next week, with isolated lake effect
rain showers possible, favoring NW lower.
MIZ016-017-021>023-099-040815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
234 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers until 2400, then chance of rain
showers.
Min Temperature.....45-50...except 52-57 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.11 in .
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 1200, then slight chance of rain
showers.
Max Temperature.....60-65.
24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent.
24 HR Trend......23 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (691).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....40-45...except 49-54 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 15 percent drier along the
coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (55).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....55-60.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
24 HR Trend......15 percent drier...except 9 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1051).
Mixing Height.......6100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
$$
MIZ018-024-030-036-042-040815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
234 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....41-46...except around 51 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (32).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 1200Slight chance of rain showers
after 1200.
Max Temperature.....64-69...except 54-59 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter...except 8 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (654).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph shifting to the west
around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....35-40...except 45-50 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (59).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63...except 48-53 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
24 HR Trend......21 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1166).
Mixing Height.......6900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
$$
MIZ020-025>027-040815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
234 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers until 2400, then chance of rain
showers.
Min Temperature.....43-48...except 55-60 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer...except 7 degrees warmer
near the coast.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (28).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .
Chance of Thunder...9 percent.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
showers until 1200Slight chance of rain showers
after 1200.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (626).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .
Chance of Thunder...8 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44...except around 50 near the coast.
24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 20 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (65).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....56-61.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
24 HR Trend......12 percent drier...except 5 percent drier along
the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (901).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
$$
MIZ031>033-040815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
234 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (29).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...9 percent.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers.
Max Temperature.....61-66.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent.
24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter...except 8 percent wetter
along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (588).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph shifting to the
northwest around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....40-45.
24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
coast.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 7 percent drier along the
coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....56-61.
24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent.
24 HR Trend......18 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (906).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
$$
MIZ028-029-034-035-041-040815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
234 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....41-46.
24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers.
Max Temperature.....64-69.
24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
west in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (616).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph shifting to the west
around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....35-40.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63.
24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
24 HR Trend......19 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1108).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.
$$
.EXTENDED...
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
$$
HAD