723
FNUS53 KAPX 031930
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
330 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...Elevated Fire Danger this Weekend...

.DISCUSSION... There will be a chance of showers and thunder
across far northern lower tonight, though with minimal rainfall
(which may pose an issue with any lightning strikes). This will be
our only rain chances through the weekend, which will present some
of the higher fire weather concerns seen across the Northwoods
since this Spring. Saturday will see temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s, and low to mid 80s Sunday. Winds will increase from the
southwest Saturday... sustained 10-15mph, with some 25mph
gusts... Sunday will be breezier and probably pose a bigger risk
for fire growth for that reason... as south winds (sustained
15mph+, gusts 25-35mph) peak. The fortunate aspect of this stretch
of weather is that RHs will generally struggle to dip much below
30 to 35 across the interior, so that should suppress Red Flag
Criteria. Nonetheless, elevated fire danger is expected through
the weekend. Rain chances return this upcoming Monday as a cold
front moves into the region and commences a cooldown to far more
seasonable temperatures for early to mid October.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-040815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
330 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer...except 1 degree warmer near
                    the coast.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 16 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (14).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the south after
                    midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...16 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1154).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...8 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Patchy fog until
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........75-80 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier...except 18 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1550).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-040815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
330 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 2400, then
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer...except 2 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 73-78 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1092).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Patchy fog until
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (38).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1556).
Mixing Height.......6400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-040815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
330 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer...except 2 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .
Chance of Thunder...13 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1149).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Patchy fog until
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........77-82 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (69).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1504).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.


$$

MIZ031>033-040815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
330 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (32).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...9 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog after 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 73-78 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent...except 46-51 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter...except 5 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1198).
Mixing Height.......6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Patchy fog until
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........77-82 percent.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent drier...except 17 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (57).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1572).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-040815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
330 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1318).
Mixing Height.......7200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Patchy fog until
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (41).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1801).
Mixing Height.......7000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
.TUESDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

HAD