440
FXUS63 KARX 071020
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
520 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/Freeze Potential Tonight and Wednesday Night

- Scattered showers and few storms possible Thursday Night

- Additional showers and storms will be possible early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Tonight and Wednesday nights - Frost/Freeze Potential

A surface high will move slowly southeast across the Upper
Mississippi River Valley and western Great Lakes tonight. The
coldest night looks to be tonight when the NBM probabilities for
widespread frost (32F or colder) in the NBM is 40 to 70 percent
across central and north- central Wisconsin. Due to this,
issued a Frost Advisory/Freeze Warning for this area between 3
AM and 9 AM Wednesday. Due to warming influence all of the river
valleys in La Crosse County, kept it out of the headlines at
this time. Elsewhere, there will be the potential for scattered
to areas of frost (35F or higher).

On Wednesday night, the surface high will be located over Great
Lakes and eastern Ontario. In central and north-central
Wisconsin, there is 20 to 50 percent probability of scattered to
areas of frost in the NBM, and up to 15 percent probability of
a widespread freeze.

Thursday Night - Scattered Showers and Maybe a Few Storms

On Thursday night, the models continue to show that a cold
front will move southeast through the region. There is enough
surface moisture convergence along the front for scattered
showers. With a few models indicate that the 0-1 km mixed-layer
CAPES will climb up to 250 J/kg, there may be even a few
storms. With the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear being weak (less than
20 knots) along and ahead of the surface front, no organized
severe weather is currently expected.

Sunday into Tuesday - More Showers Possible and Maybe a Few
Storms

The models continue to differ on the evolution of a 500 mb
longwave trough over the western CONUS. The operational GFS is
most aggressive at kicking out a shortwave trough of the
longwave trough which moves. Meanwhile, the operational ECMWF
and Canadian keep this longwave trough further west toward the
West Coast which allows more ridging over the central and
eastern CONUS

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period with northwest
winds increasing to around 10 kts this afternoon before becoming
light and variable overnight.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ017-029-
     034.
     Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ032-033-
     042>044-053-055.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Skow