


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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370 FXUS63 KARX 152355 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 655 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of rain continue through Friday night. - Mild temps return for Thu into Sat with 70+ degrees currently looking likely for Friday (warmest day of the week). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 > OVERVIEW; broken record I know, but not a lot of change via the GEFS and EPS over the past 5+ days with depicting a progressive upper flow through the rest of the week, likely persisting well into next week. A ridge comes in a for a couple days, then a trough, then ridge...adnauseam. All WPC clusters ride the same train but they start to stray from each other moving into the new work week. Some are completely out of phase with one another - highlighting timing differences within the long term guidance. Confidence and predictability lower in this time frame as a result. Bottom-line remains the same though - periodic rain chances with some up and down in temps every few days, but still hovering near to above the mid October normals. > THROUGH THE WEEKEND: on and off rain chances. Mild Thu-Sat with Friday shaping up to be the warmest of the bunch. Bands of light showers persisting across IA at early afternoon - associated with weak perturbations and low/mid level Fgen. The light showers will gradually shift northeast across the local forecast area through the afternoon and tonight as the main forcing mechanisms take that track. This Fgen region takes a more north-south orientation over eastern WI on Thu as an upper level shortwave ridge sharpens just to the west. Also westward and under the ridge, low level moisture transport/convergence with favorable thermodynamic lift should result in more showers developing across southern MN/northern IA by 12z, spreading into western WI through the morning and afternoon. Again, forcing is weak but the airmass remains anomalously moist. PW anomalies still 2+ in the NAEFS and EC with the RAP suggesting as much as 1.5". QPF in the meso models generally paints 1/10 to 1/3". That said, there were a lot of 1/2+" totals from the rain of yesterday/overnight - which were more high end outliers in the meso models. So, models could be too low for its QPF (and rain chances on the whole) as a result of the weak forcing. These next rounds of rain/drizzle look to exit east overnight Thu. Not a big break from the rain chances though as an upper trough with accompanying cold front will be moving in from the northern plains Friday. Stronger lift interacts with a ribbon of moisture transport in the evening/night time hours - and medium range guidance currently favors this period for the higher rain chances/qpf. Further expansion in areal coverage and intensity likely as another shortwave barrels northeast out of the southern plains Saturday. However, the front is likely already east of the local forecast area, holding the brunt of this interaction east. As for temps, the region gets under southerly flow for the next few days - with 850 mb temps climbing from around 8 C at 12z this morning to as much as 15 C by 12z Fri. GEFS and EPS a bit warmer for highs Fri compared to previous days with the upper 75% of their members painting highs for 70+ degrees for most of the forecast area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 654 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Low end MVFR to IFR ceilings remain solidly in place overnight for much of the area given very saturated low levels. Areas of mist/drizzle are possible (10-30%) primarily along/south of I-90 overnight where the low level moisture is expected to be slightly deeper. More bouts of rain come early Thursday morning and again Thursday afternoon which could result in temporary MVFR visibilities. MVFR/IFR ceilings begin to lift to VFR from southwest to northeast Thursday, beginning by the late morning hours as the low level moisture shifts northeastward. Winds become southeasterly by Thursday morning, gusting to 15-20kts at times west of the Mississippi River by the afternoon. After the current TAF period, some potential for Low Level Wind Shear will exist across the region. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rieck AVIATION...Falkinham