Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 202018
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
318 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Main forecast concerns in the short term are on windy conditions
Tuesday into Tuesday night along with showers and a few
thunderstorms.

A vigorous trough lifts north out of the Central Plains late tonight
into Tuesday. Scattered showers and a fews storms are possible south
of I-90 late tonight along the warm air advection ahead of the
wave. The main band of showers and possibly some embedded
thunderstorms moves through the area late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. With the strong low pressure moving in, plan on
strong southeast winds Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening when
wind gusts could reach 40 to 45 mph. By the time the rain ends
late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, rainfall amounts
look to range from around 1 inch over portions of northeast Iowa
to around three tenths of an inch over north central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Warmer weather on the way by midweek. Additional chances for
showers and storms the remainder of the week into the weekend.

Warmer temperatures finally work into the region on Wednesday as
the low pressure system fills and lifts off to the northeast. A
weak warm front develops over north central Wisconsin by
Wednesday afternoon and we may see some showers and storms develop
across these areas. If enough CAPE builds, cannot rule out a few
stronger storms near the front, but confidence is low that storms
will even develop. We should then see a little dry time Wednesday
night into Thursday. Another trough moves through the region
Thursday night through Friday with continued chances for showers
and thunderstorms. The good news is, it appears the warmer
temperatures are here to stay for the end of the week. We may see
some more dry time Saturday into Sunday, depending on where a warm
front sets up across the region. Active weather looks to return
on Monday as southwest flow aloft sets up across the region with
more chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

VFR conditions likely through at least tonight with some diurnal
cumulus this afternoon and increasing mid/high level cloud cover
tonight as high pressure slowly moves east of the area through
tonight. Some showers are possible by as early as late tonight or
Tuesday morning ahead of low pressure to the west. However,
confidence right now is relatively low with timing due to the
influence of dry easterly low-level flow into the day on Tuesday.
As a result, will only include VCSH for now. Northerly winds
tonight will become light overnight and then increase from the
east on Tuesday, with gusts of 20 to 30 kts by later Tuesday
morning.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...JM


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