Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 131707
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1107 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

At 2 AM, cloud cover much of Wisconsin, southeast Minnesota, eastern
Iowa, and northern Illinois. These clouds were associated with an
upper level trough over the Great Lakes. There was some clearing
moving into southeast Minnesota, but there are some additional
clouds upstream which extend from central Minnesota northeast
into Manitoba. Like the past couple of days, the 13.00z models are
struggling with when the clouds will clear across the area. In
some cases, we are already supposed to have clear skies. Due to
this, adjusted the clouds based upon the current satellite trends
along with when the 925 to 700 mb ridge axis will move through the
region.

Due to more clouds this morning, raised the low temperature up
some. The greatest increase (up to 5 degrees) was across western
Wisconsin. For this afternoon with the uncertainty of when the
clearing will occur, did not adjust the high temperatures from
what was forecast previously.

The combination of clear skies and light winds will allow for good
radiational cooling across the region tonight. Temperatures on
Wednesday morning will range from 5 to 15 above.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

From Wednesday into Thursday, warm air advection will found across
the region. 925 mb temperatures will warm into the 1.5 to -3C
range on Wednesday afternoon and from 0 to 7.5C on Thursday
afternoon. Due to this, expect high temperatures in the 30s on
Wednesday and they will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s on
Thursday.

From Friday into Friday night, the models are in agreement that a
shortwave trough will move through the region. However, the track
of this system remains highly uncertain. The GFS has its
precipitation mainly north of Interstate 94. The Canadian has all
of its precipitation to our south. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is between
these 2 solutions. Due to this uncertainty, kept the precipitation
chances in the 20 to 40 percent range.

In the wake of this system, more cold air will spill southward
into the region. 925 mb temperatures will range from -8 to -10C on
Saturday afternoon and from -4 to -9C on Sunday afternoon. High
temperatures on both days will range from the mid 20s to lower
30s.

On Monday, the upper level trough will gradually move east of the
area. As this occurs, warm air advection will increase across the
region. 925 mb temperatures will range from 0 to -6C in Wisconsin
and from 0 to 5C west of the Mississippi River. Due to this
expect, high temperatures to be mainly in the 30s with the coldest
temperatures north of Interstate 94.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1107 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

VFR conditions expected through the period. A ridge of high
pressure was currently extending from northwest Wisconsin into
Kansas and this will slide east and past the area by late tonight
into Wednesday morning. Still some remaining clouds along and east
of the Mississippi River but these are expected to finally
dissipate toward sunset. Expect some mid to high level clouds on
the back side of the ridge axis overnight into Tuesday morning.
Look for the winds to come around to the south on the back side of
the ridge.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...04


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