Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 242340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
640 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Still watching a band of moderate to heavy snow across portions of
northeast IA into northern and central IL. As the 500 hPa closed
low currently over central IA weakens and moves into IL this
evening, expect the snow band to dissipate and drop south of the
forecast area. This trend is already apparent on radar and further
supported by the latest surface observations showing visibility
has generally improved to 3 miles or more. As a result, will
allow winter headlines to expire at 4 pm this afternoon. Roads
will remain snow covered and slick until cleared and treated, so
continue to exercise caution if traveling through tonight.

Clouds will clear from north to south overnight with mostly sunny
skies on Sunday as 500 hPa ridging moves across the region. Low-
level easterly flow will advect a very dry air mass across the
forecast area with dewpoints dropping into the single digits across
parts of central WI. When combined with high temperatures rising
into the upper 40s to perhaps 50 degrees, many areas east of the MS
River will see relative humidity drop to 20 percent or less. Winds
will generally be from the east-southeast between 15 and 20 mph,
resulting in an elevated fire danger.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Precipitation chances increase through Monday, but especially after
00Z Tuesday as low-mid level moisture and isentropic lift/warm air
advection increases with an approaching short-wave aloft. If
precipitation can develop early enough in the day, there could be a
bit of a wintry mix across portions of northeast IA and southeast MN
Monday morning, but expect a quick change over to rain with
afternoon highs well into the 40s. Will continue with a slight
chance for thunderstorms Monday evening into the early overnight
given a couple hundred J/kg of low-level MUCAPE.

Tuesday and Wednesday look mainly dry as high pressure dominates the
regional weather pattern. Daily highs will be in the 40s to mid 50s
with light winds. Wednesday night into the weekend, periodic
precipitation chances return as a large upper-level low influences
southern Canada into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region.
24.12Z medium-range model suite is handling individual short-waves
differently, so precipitation amounts, type, and timing are
uncertain at this time. That said, higher confidence in a gradual
cooling trend with highs by Saturday back into the mid 30s to mid


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Gusty easterly
winds will diminish tonight then pick back up again by mid morning


Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Relative humidity of 20 percent or less and east-southeast wind
from 15 to 20 mph will result in an elevated fire danger across
portions of central WI Sunday afternoon. That said, FFMC values in
the upper 80s to around 90, cooler temperatures (highs in the
40s) and marginal winds will preclude true Red Flag conditions.




LONG TERM...Rogers
FIRE WEATHER...Rogers is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.