Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 282350
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
550 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Main forecast concerns for tonight into Monday are on falling
temperatures then chances for light snow late tonight into the
Monday morning commute.

Lingering light snow, mainly north of Interstate 90, will gradually
shift east of the area late this afternoon. Temperatures will
continue to fall late this afternoon into tonight, eventually
falling into the teens at most locations, with some single digits
possible across north-central Wisconsin.  Any standing water from
the recent snowmelt will refreeze, possibly creating slippery travel
in spots. A shortwave trough dives into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley late tonight into Monday morning bringing some light snow to
area along and north of Interstate 90. Mesoscale models are in good
agreement bringing light snow to west-central Wisconsin, then this
signal fades by mid monday morning as the wave works east. Even
though the snow will be on the lighter side Monday morning, with
accumulations of around 1/2 inch or less, it will probably be enough
to cause slick travel in spots for the Monday morning commute. High
pressure then builds in Monday afternoon with decreasing clouds
expected.  This will set the stage for a chilly Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Main forecast concerns in the long-term are on temperature trends
and winds.

Flow aloft turns zonal on Tuesday and low pressure moves across
southern Ontario producing southwesterly winds which will usher
in seasonably warm temperatures. There will be a tight pressure
gradient in place across the region producing breezy southwesterly
winds possibly gusting up to 30 mph at times in open area. Mainly
quiet weather is then expected the rest of the week with above
normal temperatures expected, with highs mainly in the 40s,
possibly in the lower 50s as we go into next weekend. In fact,
some ECMWF ensemble members are suggesting highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s starting Sunday and continuing into early next week
but the median in these ensembles is closer to 50. Will continue
to use NBM for highs with uncertainly in snowpack conditions, but
thinking if these ensemble members continue trending toward warmer
temperatures, highs will have to be increased 3 to 5 degrees next
weekend going into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

VFR conditions are expected tonight, with a brief period of MVFR
conditions and light snow possible Monday morning.

Skies are expected to remain mostly clear this evening, though a few
VFR high clouds may try to encroach from the northwest. Gusty
northwest winds should gradually decrease as the evening wears on. A
shortwave moving through Monday morning could bring a few hours of
light snow to the TAF sites, but the area of snow is likely to be
fairly small and models show a diminishing trend as snow approaches,
so confidence remains on the lower side. Did TEMPO in MVFR
ceilings/visibility for a few hours when snow appears likeliest
to impact the TAF sites, but adjustments will likely be needed and
trends will have to be monitored.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...Lee



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