


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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117 FXUS63 KARX 221741 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1241 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to areas of frost tonight and Friday night in central and north-central Wisconsin. - Kept small chances (20-30%) of rain in the forecast from Saturday night into Wednesday. - Temperatures remain around 10 degrees cooler than normal through the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Tonight and Friday Morning A diurnal deck of 3-5K clouds will gradually dissipate this evening. While these clouds will be dissipating, there will be additional clouds at 6-8K feet. These latter clouds are associated with a closed low pressure system over the Great Lakes. There are some indications that skies will gradually clear over north-central and central Wisconsin toward day break. This might result in scattered to areas of frost in these areas. Friday night and Saturday morning A weak ridge of high pressure will provide mostly clear skies and light winds across the region. Low temperatures will likely range from the mid-30s to mid-40s. The coldest temperatures will be in central and north-central Wisconsin. Since the models are typically too warm in the aforementioned areas, there will be the potential that the low temperatures could be much closer to the NBM 10th percentile (lower 30s). If this occurs, a Frost Advisory will be needed. Saturday night through Wednesday Early in the period, the ridge currently over the western US will move northeast toward Hudson Bay and an elongated trough will move south and extend from the Dakotas to the Great Lakes. This trough then lingers over the area into the middle of next week. Like the past couple of days, much of the rain associated with this trough will be in the base of this trough. The operational ECMWF and most of its ensemble members have this trough base to our west and southwest. Meanwhile, the GFS and most of its ensemble members have it located more over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Due to these uncertainties, kept rain chances on the low side (20-30%). High temperatures will be mainly in the 60s and low temperatures will be in the lower and mid 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Diurnal heating will result in a scattered to broken 4-5K deck of clouds through this evening. As these clouds dissipate, clouds associated with a closed low over the Great Lakes will keep a 6-8K deck of clouds over much of the Upper Mississippi River Valley through much of tonight. Skies will clear across much of the region late tonight and early Friday morning. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Boyne