695
FXUS63 KARX 162349
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
649 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off showers into Saturday night. Rainfall amounts for
  most should stay at or below 0.50 inches with some higher
  amounts closer to 1 inch possible across far Southwestern
  Wisconsin.

- Warmer than normal temperatures through Saturday ahead of cold
  front. Seasonal, near normal temperatures return for next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Today - Saturday: Off and On Rain Chances, Warm Temperatures

Our area sits in the crest of an upper level ridge that is gradually
phasing east. A subtle shortwave impulse is traversing the
ridge and has helped to set off an area of showers and weak
thunderstorms across the Upper Mississippi Valley. This is also
associated with a broad area of warm advection amidst an
increasingly moist boundary layer, represented by pWats of
1.3-1.6 inches across the area. This area of showers will
continue to trek east in conjunction with the upper ridge with
most areas south/west of I-94 drying out by later this
afternoon.

As the aforementioned ridge exits the area, a upper low and
troughing regime will follow in its footsteps. The cut-off low
currently sits over the Intermountain West and is expected to eject
northeast in an attempt to rejoin the main jet-stream through
the day on Friday. Its corresponding surface low, currently
residing over the central Dakotas, will look to follow suit.
Because of this, its trailing cold front is expected to approach
the area between 12-18Z Friday, bringing with it some
additional rain chances. Because the parent low is expected to
occlude as it moves northeast into Western Ontario, the cold
front will make slow progress through the area this weekend. It
isn`t until the trough axis, which lags behind the upper low,
finally pivots counterclockwise and makes progress through the
Upper Mississippi Valley early Sunday. This will give the needed
push to move the front east of the area and finally bring rain
chances to an end (briefly).

With continued warm air advection into the region through tomorrow,
high temperatures will soar into the mid and upper 70s, well above
average for this time of year. With the cold front not making much
progress through the area during the day on Saturday, temperatures
will still be on the mild side in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Sunday - Mid Next Week: Progressive Pattern, Near Normal Temps

With the front finally off to the east, conditions look to return to
seasonal normals by Sunday afternoon with clearing skies and post-
frontal cold air advection keeping temperatures in the 50s to low
60s. The dry weather should last through Monday with a brief upper
ridge moving into the region. Unfortunately, this looks to be short
lived as yet another upper trough and low swing through the area by
mid-week. With this more progressive pattern comes low chances for
rain 00Z Tuesday through the end of next work week. Current
indications are that moisture will be a lot more limited with an
overall lack of substantial return flow ahead of the system(s) so
have continued with the low PoPs for now given usual uncertainty
100+ hours out. The progressive pattern also looks to keep
temperatures near normal with benign fluctuations between the 50s
and 60s from Sunday through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Low level wind shear is the primary aviation concern overnight.
Strong low level winds overspread the region which combined
with a 40-60 degree wind shift in the lowest 2kft leads to favorable
conditions for low level wind shear. Highest confidence in low
level wind shear exists for those sites located within valleys,
but all sites are susceptible through daybreak Friday.

Otherwise, VFR conditions have begun to creep northward through
the Upper Mississippi River Valley. MVFR ceilings will linger
for areas along and north of I-94 early this evening, but will
continue to improve over the next few hours with VFR conditions
prevailing after. Potential for showers and perhaps a storm
return Friday along a cold front moving through the region
(20-40%), resulting in MVFR conditions at times.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barendse
AVIATION...Falkinham