


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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695 FXUS63 KARX 162349 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 649 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - On and off showers into Saturday night. Rainfall amounts for most should stay at or below 0.50 inches with some higher amounts closer to 1 inch possible across far Southwestern Wisconsin. - Warmer than normal temperatures through Saturday ahead of cold front. Seasonal, near normal temperatures return for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Today - Saturday: Off and On Rain Chances, Warm Temperatures Our area sits in the crest of an upper level ridge that is gradually phasing east. A subtle shortwave impulse is traversing the ridge and has helped to set off an area of showers and weak thunderstorms across the Upper Mississippi Valley. This is also associated with a broad area of warm advection amidst an increasingly moist boundary layer, represented by pWats of 1.3-1.6 inches across the area. This area of showers will continue to trek east in conjunction with the upper ridge with most areas south/west of I-94 drying out by later this afternoon. As the aforementioned ridge exits the area, a upper low and troughing regime will follow in its footsteps. The cut-off low currently sits over the Intermountain West and is expected to eject northeast in an attempt to rejoin the main jet-stream through the day on Friday. Its corresponding surface low, currently residing over the central Dakotas, will look to follow suit. Because of this, its trailing cold front is expected to approach the area between 12-18Z Friday, bringing with it some additional rain chances. Because the parent low is expected to occlude as it moves northeast into Western Ontario, the cold front will make slow progress through the area this weekend. It isn`t until the trough axis, which lags behind the upper low, finally pivots counterclockwise and makes progress through the Upper Mississippi Valley early Sunday. This will give the needed push to move the front east of the area and finally bring rain chances to an end (briefly). With continued warm air advection into the region through tomorrow, high temperatures will soar into the mid and upper 70s, well above average for this time of year. With the cold front not making much progress through the area during the day on Saturday, temperatures will still be on the mild side in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Sunday - Mid Next Week: Progressive Pattern, Near Normal Temps With the front finally off to the east, conditions look to return to seasonal normals by Sunday afternoon with clearing skies and post- frontal cold air advection keeping temperatures in the 50s to low 60s. The dry weather should last through Monday with a brief upper ridge moving into the region. Unfortunately, this looks to be short lived as yet another upper trough and low swing through the area by mid-week. With this more progressive pattern comes low chances for rain 00Z Tuesday through the end of next work week. Current indications are that moisture will be a lot more limited with an overall lack of substantial return flow ahead of the system(s) so have continued with the low PoPs for now given usual uncertainty 100+ hours out. The progressive pattern also looks to keep temperatures near normal with benign fluctuations between the 50s and 60s from Sunday through the end of the work week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Low level wind shear is the primary aviation concern overnight. Strong low level winds overspread the region which combined with a 40-60 degree wind shift in the lowest 2kft leads to favorable conditions for low level wind shear. Highest confidence in low level wind shear exists for those sites located within valleys, but all sites are susceptible through daybreak Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions have begun to creep northward through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. MVFR ceilings will linger for areas along and north of I-94 early this evening, but will continue to improve over the next few hours with VFR conditions prevailing after. Potential for showers and perhaps a storm return Friday along a cold front moving through the region (20-40%), resulting in MVFR conditions at times. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Barendse AVIATION...Falkinham