148
FXUS63 KARX 032338
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
538 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain persists through Thursday with on and off showers
  moving through the region. Most locations will pick up around
  0.5-1" of additional rain over the next 48 hours.

- Temperatures decrease to just a bit below normal by
  Thursday/Friday as rain and widespread cloudiness continues
  before returning to above normal early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Occasional rain continues through Thursday night

Upper low west of MCI with southerly moist fetch east of this
feature will continue to lead to periodic showers across the region
and plentiful moisture advects northward and upper disturbances move
northeast. Slight break will occur when the upper low churns
overhead Wednesday morning before wrap around disturbances move
southwest over the CWA as the upper low departs to the east. While
available moisture will be abundant today and tonight (03.12z DVN
RAOB had a daily record 1.5" of PWAT) forcing for ascent is in the
form of periodic shortwaves without the presence of a stationary or
quasi-staitonary boundary usually needed for training. Finally,
moisture and rain rates look to take a step downward as the upper low
departs and drier air begins to filter in from the northwest. 03.12z
REFS max rainfall reflects this with values of only around 1" of
rain after 18z today. Therefore, while many locations will receive
around an additional 0.5-1" of rain over the next couple days,
flooding concerns are minimal.

Temperatures fall and then rise

Progression of the upper low over the next few days will allow for
cooler air to push south into the region. This, combined with
occasional light rainfall and cloudiness, will lead to temperatures
in the upper 40s for Thursday and Friday, just a bit below normal
for early November. While there is a good deal of interquartile
temperature spread (8-10 degrees F per 03.13z NBM) Saturday and
Sunday, guidance largely points toward subtly rising heights going
into Monday of next week with around a coin flip (40-60%) chance for
highs to reach 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Low MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected throughout much of the TAF
period as a weather disturbance pushes through the region, bringing
off and on showers across much of the area. Consequently, the NBH
has high probabilities (50-90%) for IFR cigs at KRST and KLSE.
Additionally, visibility reductions to IFR thresholds will likely
accompany any heavier showers throughout the TAF period as
well. Off and on showers will likely persist through the TAF
period and even will continue into Thursday as the disturbance
overhead slowly meanders eastward. Therefore, probabilities in
the recent REFS maintain high chances (50-80%) for IFR cigs all
the way through Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, winds will begin
the TAF period from the south at around 5-10 kts before shifting
towards westerly by late morning and into the afternoon on
Wednesday and increasing slightly to 10-15 kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 123 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Record Warm Low Potential Tuesday (Nov 3):

               Record Warm Low (Year)     Forecast Low Temp
-----------------------------------------------------------
Rochester, MN       55 (1956)59 F
La Crosse, WI       58 (2022)   61 F

In fact, the forecast record warm lows for both Rochester and La
Crosse would break the all time monthly November record warm
lows if they pan out. The current monthly November records are
as follows:

Rochester, MN: 57 (Nov. 1938)
La Crosse, WI: 60 (Nov. 1938 and 2020)

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Naylor
CLIMATE...Muscha