997
FXUS63 KARX 131101
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
601 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic rain chances over the next 7 days. Highest chances
  for rain Tuesday night (40-65%) and Friday night (30-60%).
  Neither severe storms nor flooding concerns are expected.

- Temperatures generally around or above normal (lower 60s
  during mid-October). A chilly morning is expected Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Periodic rain chances over the next 7 days

Progressive upper flow pattern is on tap for the next week with
quasi-zonal flow aloft over the CWA through Thursday night when the
main body of an upper trough looks to approach from the west.

While multiple rounds of rain are possible, best good chance seems
to focus on Tuesday night when a shortwave looks to ride over a
central CONUS ridge. With the cold front pushing through early
Monday morning looking like it will stall to our south, this weak
wave should help focus lift along the 850mb front while it also
pulls this boundary back northward, likely leading to rain in our
forecast area. 13.00z GFS PWAT values do tick upward to around 1-
1.2" but initial dryness near the surface and lack of instability -
12.12z LREF mean MUCAPE is around 50 J/kg - suggest rain totals will
be low. Indeed, 12.12z LREF probabilities suggest only about a 10-
15% chance to exceed even 0.5".

Second more notable chance for precip looks to arrive sometimes
Friday or Friday night as a longwave trough lifts northeast over the
upper Midwest with an attendant cold front sweeping east through the
region. With PWAT values again struggling to rise above 1.25",
probably looking at another high PoP, low QPF setup. That said, with
timing differences across the 13.00z cycle, have refrained from
beginning to focus on a single period for higher PoPs and retained
NBM for now.

Temperatures around or above normal, chilly Tuesday morning

Progressive pattern should keep temperatures from running too far
above or below normal over the next 7 days. Warmest days appear to
be Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge builds over the area before
the main trough discussed above arrives with highs in the low 70s
favored. Only notable temperatures may occur tonight as a post-
frontal regime with clearing skies and light winds sets in. Have
moved temperatures a bit below NBM as a result but avoided going all
in in deference to potential for light gradient winds hanging on
through the nighttime hours. In any case, most of the areas
susceptible to lows below 36 (and potentially near freezing) - the
cranberry cultivation areas of Jackson County and Clark/Taylor
Counties - have already experienced a freeze this fall.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Besides lingering MVFR ceilings extending from northeast Iowa
through southeast Minnesota into central Wisconsin at 13.12Z TAF
issuance, VFR expected through the 13.12Z TAF period.

Subsequent precipitation chances Tuesday afternoon/evening shift
east through the local forecast area with potential for aviation
impacts increasing Tuesday night.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...JAR