Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 161052
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
552 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Latest satellite watervapor imagery showing upper level shortwave
responsible for much of the showers/storms of yesterday/early this
morning was pushing east across western/central WI while an
elongated band of shortwave energy ran across northern parts of
MN/ND. Radar imagery painted an area of showers and a few storms
just ahead of the mean shortwave, sliding east across southern WI.

Latest meso model runs continue to shift the pcpn east with the
shortwave trough, mostly east of central WI by 15z or so. A few
showers across northern MN associated with a shortwave trough in the
north likely to stay there.

Clouds will hang around for much of the day with some clearing
tonight. The clouds and a push of cool 850 mb air (along with
northeasterly sfc winds) will make for a chilly end to the weekend.
Highs in the 60s are expected for most.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The messy pattern just keeps getting messier. Mostly quick moving
zonal flow promising shortwave troughs and bits of upper level
energy (some likely convectively induced) to streak west-east across
the Upper Mississippi for the new week. What looked like a dry start
to the work week may not be so now...while attempting to nail down
the wet days also problematic. With not much model agreement between
and within themselves, will let the blends dictate pcpn chances.

As alluded to, the start for the work week looked dry for most with
at least a couple days in the Mon-Wed time frame suggesting
rain free. That still could be the case as weak high pressure builds
across the western Great Lakes with a drier easterly flow setting up
- deterrent to eastward push of pcpn from the west.  However, there
are bits of upper level energy rippling through the flow, just south
of a parent trough straddling the U.S./Canadian border. Could see
some showers with that forcing, although the farther east they move
into the local area, the more challenged they will be to find a good
saturation source. So, it may still be dry for most for the start of
work week, but not guaranteed.

For the middle to later half of the week, still some indications in
the GFS and EC that pieces of energy in the southern portion of the
upper level flow could be a player in pcpn chances, but focus is
still on trough dropping southeast out of western Canada. The GFS
remains stronger and more aggressive compared to the EC. Fri/Sat
still looking like the most favorable for widespread shower/storm
chances.

Temps still looking to hover near or just below the seasonable norms
through the work week. The EC still favors ridge building for the
weekend, which would result in warmer/summery temps. The GFS back to
troughing. All in all though, some signs that we could be entering a
warmer pattern from the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Plenty of lower level moisture to remain stuck in/under an inversion
near 900mb today. MVFR/IFR cloud decks will linger across the area
this morning, gradually rising to MVFR thru the day with some
diurnal warming/mixing. Decrease of clouds/decks becoming sct looks
to occur this evening as deeper layered subsidence and some weak
lower level anti-cyclonic flow spreads into the area. Clouds in
inversions can be stubborn but remained optimistic that clouds will
break up this evening, with clouds becoming sct after 01z at KRST
and after 04z at KLSE. Light SE winds and a moist boundary layer
late tonight, did add a 5sm br to KRST after 09z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION.....RRS


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