367
AXNT20 KNHC 170439
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jun 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 19W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers are observed near the
southern portion of the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the
southern portion of the wave. The northern portion is embedded in
a dry Saharan airmass.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W, south of
16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

A SW Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 19N, moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are evident south of 15N and west of 77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 04N40W and then from 04N43W to
02N50W. Scattered moderate convection if present from 01N to 09N
and west of 22W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Divergence aloft is producing a few showers in the northern half
of the Gulf of America, while drier conditions are prevalent
elsewhere. The subtropical ridge extends into the basin,
supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly waters south of 25N
and east of 95W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft (1-1.5 m). Gentle
to moderate anticyclonic winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each
afternoon and evening through the next several days north of the
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal
trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Otherwise,
surface ridging extending across most of the basin from the
western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds and
moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Sat
night. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and slight seas are
forecast to prevail across the eastern half of the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding a tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicates that the extensive
subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea is forcing
strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off northern
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these waters are 8-10
ft (2-3 m). In the rest of the north-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate seas are
evident. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are
present in the eastern and remainder of the western Caribbean.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and rough
seas to 11 ft are forecast across the central and portions of the
SW Caribbean through Sat night due to a prevalent Atlantic subtropical
ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean. Fresh to strong
trades will pulse at night in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue and
then stay strong through Thu while expanding northward as the Bermuda
High builds. Rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and other
portions of the NW Caribbean Tue night through Wed night. Gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere through
Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding tropical waves moving across the central Atlantic.

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the entire tropical
Atlantic basin, extending a ridge from a 1028 mb high pressure
near France to Florida. Latest satellite-derived wind data show
moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 23N and
west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft (1.5-2.5 m). Moderate
to locally fresh N-NE winds and seas of 3-6 ft (1-2 m) are found
east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds are
forecast south of 25N through Sat night as a broad subtropical
Atlantic ridge stays in place. Strong winds will pulse just north
of Hispaniola at night into late week as the Bermuda High builds.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of NE
Florida through Thu associated with a surface trough extending
along the eastern United States. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week
and into the weekend.

$$
Delgado