605
AXNT20 KNHC 082104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Dec 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from central
Florida to the central Bay of Campeche. Near gale to gale force
winds prevail over the waters S of 22N and west of the front,
where seas are in the 8-10 ft range. The front will continue to
shift SE tonight, with winds diminishing below gale force.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 07.5N12.5W and extends to near 05N18W. The ITCZ then
continues from 05N18W to 02N31W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 25W and 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a gale
warning off Veracruz, Mexico.

A cold front extends from central Florida to the central Bay of
Campeche. Aside from gale conditions off Veracruz, Mexico, fresh
to strong winds prevail N of the front, with gentle to moderate
winds SE of the front. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range N of the
front, and 2-4 ft SE of the front.

For the forecast, the front will progress southeastward over the
basin early this week. Gale force winds and localized very rough
seas are expected offshore of Veracruz through this evening, with
strong winds continuing in this region into Tue morning.
Widespread fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will occur in
the wake of the front over the central and western Gulf through
late tonight, with mainly fresh winds and moderate seas expected
in the eastern basin. Winds and seas will diminish from northwest
to southeast through Tue as the front stalls near the Yucatan
Peninsula and eventually dissipates around midweek. Weak high
pressure will build over the basin later this week, supporting
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over the central and
eastern Caribbean, with gentle winds over the western Caribbean.
Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the central and eastern
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and
moderate seas are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean
through Tue as weak ridging prevails over the central Atlantic.
Winds may pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela and
offshore of northern Colombia by Tue night, and locally rough seas
may develop near and to the west of these winds. An increasing
pressure gradient between a weakening cold front approaching the
northwestern Caribbean and low pressure in the south-central basin
will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the
central Caribbean for mid to late week. Winds may approach near-
gale force offshore of Colombia late Wed. Elsewhere, a persistent
E swell will continue to lead to rough seas over the Atlantic
waters and passages of the Lesser Antilles into early Wed before
seas slightly subside. A new mixed N and E swell will renew rough
seas over this region late Wed through the rest of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from southwest of Bermuda to just northeast
of the Bahamas. A second, stronger cold front extends from 31N75W
to central Florida. Fresh to near-gale force winds prevail N of
27N and east of the first front to 63W, with moderate to fresh
winds W of the front. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range over these
waters.

High pressure prevails across the remainder of the Atlantic
discussion waters, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near
23N46W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high
center, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing over much of the
remainder of the Atlantic discussion waters. Seas of 12 to 15 ft
are noted over the waters N of 28N between 20W and 45W, with seas
generally in the 7-11 ft range N of 20N and E of 55W. S of 20N,
seas are in the 5-8 ft range. Elsewhere, seas of 5-6 ft are
noted.

For the forecast west of 55W, the first front will progress
eastward early this week, and fresh to strong SW winds are
expected ahead of the front north of 27N through Tue. Rough seas
in W swell will east of 73W will expand eastward into the central
Atlantic by tonight. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible
north of 30N and east of 64W by Tue morning. The second front
will rapidly progress eastward through midweek, and widespread
fresh to strong N to NW winds are expected in the wake of the
front, generally north of 27N and west of 65W by late tonight,
with these winds also expanding eastward toward the central
Atlantic through Tue. A new N swell will support rough seas over
the northwest tropical Atlantic by late tonight, before merging
with the aforementioned rough seas in the central basin on Tue.
Winds will diminish from west to east through Tue night, with
rough seas slowly subsiding through late week. Looking ahead,
fresh to locally strong SW winds and rough seas may develop off
the coast of Florida mid to late week as a low pressure system
moves off the east coast of the U.S.

$$
AL