666
AXNT20 KNHC 241636
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1619 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will continue
to develop across the northwestern zones today as strong high
pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low
pressure deepens near the southern Bahamas southwest of a cold front
along 30N moving slowly southeastward into the area. This setup is
expected to induce widespread fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds
and rough to very rough seas, with winds reaching gale- force over
much of the waters north of 28N and between 60W and 75W early Sun
through Sun night. The front is expected to stall from near Bermuda
to the central Bahamas by Mon, with winds and seas diminishing very
slowly through mid week. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these
dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to
avoid the affected areas.  Please, see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

Heavy Rainfall Event in the North Caribbean: A mid to upper level
trough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant tropical
moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba,
Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and
Caicos Islands through Mon. By mid-week, the trough is forecast
to weaken while moving eastward into the central Atlantic. Heavy
rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening
flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and
the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W
and extends southwestward to 10N32.5W. The ITCZ extends from
10N39W to 08N59W. A surface trough is analyzed along 36W from 07N
to 16N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
depicted from 05.5N to 20N between 20W and 38W. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere from 07N to 13N between 38W and
50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the eastern United States extends a ridge over
the Gulf waters N of 20N. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and a trough E of the Bahamas is supporting moderate to
fresh NE to E winds basin-wide along with moderate seas, except
slight over the NW Gulf coastal waters and offshore Veracruz.

For the forecast, a broad ridge extends over most of the eastern
United States and into the northern Gulf, supporting mainly
moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across most of the Gulf
region. A tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure
and low pressure forecast to deepen near the southern Bahamas will
bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern
Gulf, including the Florida Straits this evening through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica.

Upper-level diffluent flow over the central basin supports
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms between eastern
Cuba and Jamaica and the central Carribbean. The E Pacific
monsoon supports similar convective activity over the SW
Caribbean. With a broad ridge over the Gulf of America, N to NE
winds have reached moderate speeds in the NW basin W of 81W,
including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate N winds are also offshore
Nicaragua. Seas in both the SW and NW Caribbean are slight. The
Azores High ridge extends to the central Atlantic subtropical
waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds E of
74.5W where seas are moderate to 7 ft.

For the forecast, a mid to upper level trough over Florida and NW
Caribbean will shift very slowly eastward through Mon and support
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-
central Caribbean and Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad surface
trough over the SE Bahamas extends southwestward across the
central and SW Caribbean, and will support moderate or weaker
winds, and slight to moderate seas west of 76W through today, and
moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas east of 76W.
Strong high pressure across the eastern U.S. will build southward
across Florida and the Gulf of America through the weekend and
lead to fresh N to NE winds and building seas across the western
Caribbean. Expect rough seas in large N swell across the Yucatan
Channel Mon through Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a heavy rain
event over the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

A surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low pressure near 24N69W
across central Hispaniola into the north-central Caribbean.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 20N
to 31N between 62W and 73W. NE of this broad area of low
pressure, a stationary front extends from 31N59W to 27N74W. This front
is also supporting the convection mentioned above. The remainder
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High
ridge, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of
50W, except locally strong in the vicinity of the Canary Islands
and near Cape Verde. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are to the
north of the frontal boundary along with moderate to rough seas
to 11 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a tightening pressure gradient will
continue to develop across the northwestern zones today as strong
high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low
pressure deepens near the southern Bahamas southwest of a cold
front along 30N moving slowly southeastward into the area. This
setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to near gale-force NE
to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds reaching
gale- force over much of the waters north of 28N and between 60W
and 75W early Sun through Sun night. The front is expected to
stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Mon, with winds
and seas diminishing very slowly through mid week. Mariners are
urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and
take the necessary precautions to avoid the affected areas.


$$
KRV