223
AXNT20 KNHC 060554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jan 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of northern
Sierra Leone, then runs west-southwestward to 06N17W. An ITCZ
continues from 06N17W across 04N30W to 03N48W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N to
08N between 10W and 40W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is creating
scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms near
northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is triggering patchy showers over the
northeastern Gulf. Otherwise, a 1018 mb high just south of New
Orleans is dominating much of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the western Gulf. Light
to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across
the western Gulf will persist through Wed as ridging over the
central Gulf moves eastward. Widespread moderate to fresh S to SE
winds will develop over the central and western Gulf by Wed night,
with strong winds and rough seas possible offshore of Texas and
northeastern Mexico on Thu, as a storm system forms over the
central U.S. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is expected to
enter the northwestern Gulf Fri night into Sat, and widespread
fresh to strong winds and rough seas will occur in the wake of the
front as it sweeps over the Gulf this weekend. Gale force winds
will be possible offshore of Veracruz, Mexico by Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front runs westward from north of Puerto Rico across
northern Hispaniola to north of Jamaica at 19N77W, then curves
southward through 1013 mb low at 17N79W to 12N76W. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near
these features from 17N to 20N from Jamaica eastward to Puerto
Rico. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas
of 4 to 6 ft are noted at the lee of Cuba, near Jamaican and the
Windward Passage. Moderate with locally fresh N to ENE winds and 3
to 5 ft seas are seen at the west-central, southwestern and
south-central basin. Gentle NE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and locally rough
seas will develop over the south-central Caribbean on Tue as low
pressure anchors over northern Colombia. Winds may reach near-gale
force offshore of Colombia each night starting on Wed. Elsewhere,
moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds will pulse through the
Windward Passage, in the lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola
through late week as high pressure builds to the north. By late
week, widespread fresh trade winds are expected over much of the
central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N50W to north of the Virgin Islands at 20N65W. To the
east, a surface trough extends northward from 20N51W to 31N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near these features
north of 21N between 48W and 60W. Behind the front, another
surface trough curves southwestward from 28N60W to near the
central Bahamas. patchy showers are found up to 30 nm along either
side of this trough. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at
the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Near and behind the cold front, moderate to fresh with locally
strong NE to SE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident west of
54W. From 20N to just south of the cold front and west of 54W,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are noted. To the east, north of 20N between 35W and 54W,
gentle to moderate E to SSE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are found.
For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the
Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and seas at 4
to 7 ft are seen. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft
seas exist for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are
expected over much of the northwestern tropical Atlantic through
Wed morning as a cold front in the central Atlantic drifts
eastward, and high pressure builds off the east coast of the U.S.
Locally rough seas occurring in the wake of the front, south of
27N and west of 65W, will diminish through Tue morning, with rough
seas east of 65W diminishing through Wed morning. Elsewhere,
locally fresh S to SW winds are expected well offshore of Florida
Tue into Wed as a surface trough develops to the north. Looking
ahead, high pressure will build off the coast of the eastern U.S.
by late week.

$$

Chan