371
AXNT20 KNHC 311005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Aug 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0955 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: A tight pressure gradient between a 1030 mb
high pressure system west of the Azores and lower pressures over
NW Africa will support strong to gale-force N-NE winds and rough
to very rough seas in the Agadir region from 01/0600 UTC to at
least 01/1200 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
persist off Morocco into early Wed. For more details, refer to
the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring
near this wave.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, south of 18N,
moving westward around 20 kt. A few showers are noted near the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 102N30W and
10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N44W to 13N59W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 04N to 15N and east of
25W. Similar convection is found from 05N to 15N and between 42W
and 56W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend area to
the SE Louisiana coast. This front is producing isolated moderate
convection N of 28N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are also noted in the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise at the surface,
weak ridging prevails, supporting moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will sag south today
into early Mon, then meander over the north-central and northeast
Gulf through early next week, bringing showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the area. The stronger thunderstorms will induce
locally hazardous winds and seas. Elsewhere, the weak gradient in
place will maintain mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
locally moderate seas through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic and lower
pressures over northern South American continue to support fresh
to locally strong easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean.
Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly breezes and slight to moderate seas are present in the
north-central, eastern Caribbean and also in the Bay of Honduras.
In the rest of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail. An upper level trough over the SE United States sustains
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the unsettled weather conditions in the NW
Caribbean will continue into Mon. A tropical wave moving across
the eastern Caribbean will produce some showers over the next few
days, reaching the central Caribbean today and the western
Caribbean Mon. Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure in combination
with low pressure over northern Colombia will support fresh to
strong trades along with moderate to locally rough seas across
much of the central Caribbean through this week. Later, moderate
to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas will prevail
across the central and eastern Caribbean through the workweek.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends from a 1012 mb low off NE Florida
to near Palm Coast, Florida, with a surface trough extending
southward offshore Florida through the NW Bahamas. Both features
are leading to scattered thunderstorms N of Cuba and W of 73W.
Farther east, a couple of surface troughs are also producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 25N and between 55W and
70W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted west of
73W and north of 26N. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is
under the influence of a subtropical ridge that maintains generally
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1030 mb high
pressure system west of the Azores. This ridge forces moderate to
locally strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas north of 18N
and east of 50W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the low pres will track NE to E,
dragging the front southward across much of Florida. Behind the
low, NE to E winds will increase to fresh to strong N of the front
and seas will build to locally rough, mainly N of 29N and W of
75W Sun night into early Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure will remain
in control of the general weather pattern providing for a gentle
to moderate anticyclonic wind flow.

$$
Delgado