616
AXNT20 KNHC 071032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Oct 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure, analyzed as a 1009 mb low near
11N40.5W, is associated with tropical wave. Satellite- derived
wind data around midnight indicated winds around 25 kt east of the
center, and peak seas there are near 10 ft. The associated shower
and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of improved
organization, with scattered to locally numerous moderate to
strong convection cover the area from 07N to 13.5N between 40W and
45.5W. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued
development of this system, and a tropical depression or storm is
likely to form in the next day or so while it moves quickly west-
northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. A Gale Warning
has been issued in anticipation of this. This system is expected
to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday
and Friday, and interests there should continue to monitor its
progress. This system has a high chance of tropical development in
the next 48 hours.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK and the HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml and
  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

In addition to the tropical wave associated with AL95, an
Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W from 20N southward, moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring near
this wave.

Another tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean along 63W,
moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 16N to 21.5N between 60W and 68W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 16N16.5W and
continues southwestward to 11N25W then westward to 1009 mb low
pressure located near 11N40.5W (AL95) to 07N47W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 11N between 14W and
31W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
06.5N to 15N between 47W and 60W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in recent hours over
the southwest Gulf associated with a trough across the Yucatan.
However scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is
found along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered
showers also dot the Straits of Florida, south of a weak frontal
boundary lingering across south Florida. High pressure across the
middle Atlantic states extends SE and into the north-central Gulf,
produce generally moderate easterly winds across much of the
basin, with fresh east winds across NE portions, and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Seas in these areas are 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere,
light to gentle breezes prevail across the Straits and NW
portions, with seas 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. will
build modestly across the Gulf basin throughout the week. Moderate
E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail today,
then become moderate to locally fresh NE to E through the
remainder of the week. A trough of low pressure currently moving
westward across the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to emerge into
the Bay of Campeche during the day today, and some slow
development is possible before it moves inland across Mexico by
the middle of the week. Regardless of development, showers and
thunderstorms and strong gusty winds are likely across waters
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southwestern Gulf
through Wed night. A cold front is expected to sink southward
across the northern Gulf Thu night through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, see the Special Features section for more information on
the forecast for Invest AL95.

A lingering frontal boundary across the western Atlantic along
about 24N-25N continues to prevent Atlantic high pressure from
building across the Caribbean basin, and is leading to below
normal trade winds. Moderate easterly trades are occurring across
the south-central portions S of 14N. Trade winds convergence there is
supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms over the southwest
Caribbean from Panama to Colombia. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms are noted over the Gulf of Honduras and extend along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, associated with a trough
over the Yucatan. Showers and thunderstorms are also active
across the northeast Caribbean in association with an upper level
trough and low level moisture from a tropical wave. Fresh to
locally strong SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted over the
Gulf of Honduras following the aforementioned trough over the
Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate trade winds and 2 to 4 ft
seas prevail elsewhere, except for areas of 5 to 7 ft combined
seas in the eastern Caribbean downstream of where slowly subsiding
N-NE swell from the Atlantic is penetrating through the Mona,
Anegada, and Guadeloupe Passages. Moderate combined seas are also
noted on the Atlantic exposures of the Leeward Islands due to the
N to NE swell.

For the forecast, rough seas in N to NE swell over the tropical
Atlantic waters and through the Caribbean Passages will continue
to gradually subside through late Tue. Elsewhere, moderate trade
winds will persist across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E
to SE winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Honduras through
Tue night. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across
the northwestern Caribbean through Wed, behind a broad trough
across the Yucatan. The area of low pressure, AL95, located over
the tropical central Atlantic is becoming better defined. The
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of
organization, and environmental conditions appear favorable for
continued development of this system. A tropical depression or
storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves
quickly west- northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic,
and a Gale Warning has been issued in anticipation of this. This
system is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward
Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there should
continue to monitor its progress. Regardless of development,
expect an increase in winds and seas across the tropical Atlantic
waters with this system by early Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on
Invest AL95.

A stationary front extends from 31N37W to 28N55W to 24N68W then
through the NW Bahamas and to the SE Florida coast. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is seen along and
generally north of the front, and also between the Bahamas and
Cuba. A 1028 mb high is centered N of the area near 38N64W. The
associated pressure gradient occurring north of the front is
producing fresh to strong E to NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft
north of the front to 31N, and mainly west of 60W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is ongoing from 14N to 22N
between 55W and 60W in association with a surface trough.

Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the eastern Atlantic north of 20N,
centered on 1024 mb high near 34N20W. The associated pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures both in the
tropics and over Africa resulting in fresh to strong NE winds from
16N to 28N and east of 26W. Seas are 7-10 ft in this region. Much
of the remaining tropical Atlantic south of this area between
Africa and 35W is seeing gentle to moderate trades and seas of
6-9 ft in NW to N swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N to NE swell across
the regional waters will continue to gradually subside from north
to south over the Atlantic through Tue night. Fresh to strong NE
to E winds will prevail north of a stationary front, extending
from the central Atlantic near 28N55W to 24N68W then through the
NW Bahamas and to the SE Florida coast, through late Tue. Winds
will diminish midweek as the front drifts northward and
dissipates. The area of low pressure, AL95, located over the
tropical central Atlantic is becoming better defined. The
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of
organization, and environmental conditions appear favorable for
continued development of this system. A tropical depression or
storm is likely to form in the next day or so while it moves
quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic,
and a Gale Warning has been issued in anticipation of this. This
system is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward
Islands on Thursday and Friday, and interests there should
continue to monitor its progress. Regardless of development,
expect an increase in winds and seas across the SE forecast zones
with this system by early Thu.

$$

Stripling