916
AXNT20 KNHC 022202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Nov 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from coastal Senegal near
13N16W to 10N29W. The ITCZ starts at 10N29W and extends to 09N56W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
05N-12N east of 22W. Isolated moderate convection is noted between
07N-13N between 28W-62W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A strong Bermuda High to the northeast of the Gulf is forcing
fresh to strong E winds in the NE Gulf along with seas of 5-8 ft.
Elsewhere across the Gulf has moderate or weaker winds with seas
2-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the SE Gulf
south of 25N east of 84W.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. is
combining with a surface trough across the SE Gulf to maintain
fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to locally rough seas
across the NE Gulf. These conditions will gradually shift
northward and inland through Tue evening. A cold front will reach
along the Texas coast late Tue afternoon, and move out over the NW
Gulf Tue night through Wed, followed briefly by moderate to fresh
NW to N winds. The front will then weaken and dissipate Wed
night. A new cold front will move slowly into the NW Gulf waters
Fri through Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front north of the Caribbean has diminished the
north-south pressure gradient, causing only gentle to moderate
trades this afternoon. Seas are 4-7 ft over the SW and S central
Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring south of 15N and west of 78W in association with the
eastward extension of the Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas
prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean this afternoon
and will persist through Tue. The pressure gradient across the
region will then relax Tue night through Sat as broad low pressure
forms along the trough to the SW of Bermuda and shifts E-NE
throughout the week, leading to overall weaker winds and
diminishing seas across the Caribbean basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N37W to 27N45W, where it becomes a
stationary front to 25N67W, where that transitions to a shear
line to 25N77W. The winds are E fresh to strong with seas 8-11 ft
north of the boundary. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 20N-28N between 60W-68W and near Florida from 25N-28N west of
78W. Remainder of Atlantic waters has winds moderate or weaker
with seas 5-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure across the
eastern U.S. is building eastward across the Atlantic waters north
of the frontal boundary. The resulting pressure gradient will
maintain widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
to 11 ft north of the trough and west of 60W through Tue. Broad
low pressure is expected to develop along the trough, SW of
Bermuda between 27N and 28N, Tue night through Wed, and track
slowly E-NE throughout the week. A broad zone of strong to near
gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking around 15
ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand eastward Wed
through Fri, impacting the waters mainly N of about 27N. Gale-
force winds are likely N of 29N Wed evening through Thu evening. A
weak cold front will slowly move across the waters between
Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night.

$$
Landsea/Stripling