170
AXNT20 KNHC 281823
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Aug 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 19W from 18N southward, and moving west at 5 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N
to 10N between 21W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 15N southward,
and moving west around 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is found from 06N to 11N between 42W and 48W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from the Dominican
Republic southward to northwestern Venezuela. It is moving west
around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from the
northeastern Yucatan southward through Honduras and western
Nicaragua into the East Pacific Ocean. It is moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Enhanced by an upper-level trough in the vicinity, numerous
heavy showers and scattered strong thunderstorms continue to
impact eastern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and nearby Caribbean
waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near El Mamghar, then extends southwestward through 10N35W to
07N48W. An ITCZ continues westward from 07N48W to just north of
Guyana at 08N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is flaring up south of the monsoon trough near the coast of
Mauritania, Senegal and Gambia, and from 06N to 09N between 30W
and 37W. Similar convection is also seen near and up to 200 nm
north of the ITCZ between 48W and 59W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening stationary front extends westward from near Naples,
Florida to a 1015 mb low near 25N90W in the central Gulf. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near
the low and south of the front across the Florida Straits. Gentle
to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at
the central Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1
to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front is going to dissipate this
evening. Afterward, high pressure will dominate the Gulf through
early next week. Under this weather pattern, mainly gentle to
moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas will prevail.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough is generating scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from the Gulf of Honduras to the Cayman Islands.
Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in
the Caribbean Sea. The Atlantic subtropical ridge continues to
support a trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea.
Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft dominate the
south-central basin. Mainly fresh easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are present at the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate
ENE to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are noted at the
northwestern basin. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in
easterly swell persist near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to
moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, wet weather at the western Caribbean related to
the aforementioned tropical wave will linger through tonight. The
Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will continue to
support fresh to strong winds, with moderate to rough seas across
much of the central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend.
Another tropical wave near 69W will move across the central basin
today and tonight, and western basin on Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A gradually retreating warm front curves southwestward from off
the Carolina coast across 31N77w to near West Palm Beach, Florida.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen up to 150 nm
along either side of the warm front. Two surface troughs are
producing similar conditions south of Bermuda, north of 23N
between 61W and 70W. Farther south, convergent southeasterly winds
are causing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
north of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for
additional showers and thunderstorms.

A broad 1026 mb high near 34N47W is sustaining gentle to moderate
with locally fresh NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N
and west of 35W. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 20N and
west of 35W, moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and 3 to
6 ft seas existed. To the south from EQ to 20N and west of 35W,
gentle to moderate southerly winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed
large swells exit.

For the forecast west of 55W, the warm front is expected to
continue lifting north, then transition back to a cold front by
Fri morning and extend from Bermuda to 29N69W by Sat morning
before lifting north of the area Sat evening. The Atlantic ridge
will dominate the remainder the western Atanltic producing a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Another weak front may move
off the Carolina/Georgia coast during the weekend and into early
next week.

$$

Chan